A note on peak-to-mean concentration ratios

The peak-to-mean concentration ratio obtained from observations near a point source of pollution is a particular example of the ratio of any short-period concentration to the long-term mean. The value of this ratio may be obtained from the probability distribution function: $$F(C) = F(0) exp [ - F(0) C/M]$$ whereF(C) is the probability or frequency that the ratio of a short-period average concentration (C) to the long-term mean (M) exceeds the valueC/M, andF(0) is a parameter dependent on the length of the short period and the position of the sampler relative to the centre-line of the plume. From (1) the peak-to-mean concentration ratio is shown to be related to the two averaging times by the expression $$P/M = 1/F(0) [lnF(0) - lnt_M /t_P ]$$ wheret _M andt _P are, respectively, the averaging times of the long-term meanM and the short-term peakP. Using recently published experimental data, Equation (1) and hence also (2) are shown to be valid for averaging timest _P from 5 s to 24 h and oft _M from 6 min to 5 yr providedt _P ?t _M .     

Application of matrix analysis in delineating sinkhole risk areas along highway (I-70 near Frederick,Maryland)

Sinkhole collapse in the area of Maryland Interstate 70 (I-70) and nearby roadways south of Frederick, Maryland, has been posing a threat to the safety of the highway operation as well as other structures. The occurrence of sinkholes is associated with intensive land development. However, the geological conditions that have been developing over the past 200 million years in the Frederick Valley control the locations of the sinkholes. Within an area of approximately 8 km², 138 sinkholes are recorded and their spatial distribution is irregular, but clustered. The clustering indicates the existence of an interaction between the sinkholes. The point pattern of sinkholes is considered to be a sample of a Gibbsian point process from which the hard-core Strauss Model is developed. The radius of influence is calculated for the recorded sinkholes which are most likely to occur within 30 m of an existing sinkhole. The stochastic analysis of the existing sinkholes is biased toward the areas with intensive land use. This bias is adjusted by considering (1) topography, (2) proximity to topographic depressions, (3) interpreted rock formation, (4) soil type, (5) geophysical anomalies, (6) proximity to geologic structures, and (7) thickness of overburden. Based on the properties of each factor, a scoring system is developed and the average relative risk score for individual 30-m segments of the study area is calculated. The areas designated by higher risk levels would have greater risk of a sinkhole collapse than the areas designated by lower risk levels. This risk assessment approach can be updated as more information becomes available.     

Analyses of organic and inorganic contaminants in Salton Sea fish

Chemical contamination of fish from the Salton Sea, a quasi-marine lake in Southern California, could adversely impact millions of birds using the Pacific Flyway and thousands of humans using the lake for recreation. Bairdiella icistia (bairdiella), Cynoscion xanthulus (orangemouth corvina), and Oreochromis spp. (tilapia) were sampled from two river mouths and two nearshore areas of the Salton Sea. Muscle tissues were analyzed for a complete suite of 14 trace metals and 53 pesticides. Fish muscle tissues had concentrations of selenium ranging between 1.89 and 2.73 microg/g wet weight. 4,4'-DDE accounted for 94% of the total DDT metabolites. Total DDTs ranged between 17.1 and 239.0 and total PCBs between 2.5 and 18.6 ng/g wet weight. PCB congeners 132, 138, 153, 168, and 180 comprised over 50% of the total PCBs. Given the potential implementation of a commercial fishing at the Salton Sea in the future, the presence of persistent organic pollutants and selenium warrants further research into the effects of these mixtures on fish populations, and on wildlife and humans consuming fish.     

Local configuration measures for categorical spatial data: binary regular lattices

This paper examines the utility of a number of pattern measures for local exploratory analysis of binary spatial data. Based on a review of existing pattern measures in cartography, geography, image analysis, and landscape ecology, two fundamental classes of such measures, termed compositional and configurational, are identified. The paper focuses on configurational measures and it is suggested that as many as five such measures (join counts, patch numbers, patch sizes, patch proximity, and distribution of the classes relative to the focal cell of the window) are required to differentiate between all possible local categorical maps. This suggestion is explored by examining aspects of the statistical behaviour (probability distributions and correlations between extreme values of pairs of measures) of a set of 12 configurational measures. Their use is also demonstrated by means of an empirical example.     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

STAMP: spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons

Research questions regarding temporal change in spatial patterns are increasingly common in geographical analysis. In this research, we explore and extend an approach to the spatial–temporal analysis of polygons that are spatially distinct and experience discrete changes though time. We present five new movement events for describing spatial processes: displacement, convergence, divergence, fragmentation and concentration. Spatial–temporal measures of events for size and direction are presented for two time periods, and multiple time periods. Size change metrics are based on area overlaps and a modified cone-based model is used for calculating polygon directional relationships. Quantitative directional measures are used to develop application specific metrics, such as an estimation of the concentration parameter for a von Mises distribution, and the directional rate of spread. The utility of the STAMP methods are demonstrated by a case study on the spread of a wildfire in northwestern Montana.      

Paleolimnological significance of spinose and non-spinose morphs of Pyrgophorus hibbardi (Leonard and Franzen, 1944)

The basal portion of the Ogallala Formation (=Laverne Formation) (Lower Pliocene) Beaver County, Oklahoma, contains an interesting assemblage of non-marine fossil molluscs that include both spinose and non-spinose forms of the aquatic gastropod species Pyrgophorus hibbardi. The origin and paleolimnological significance of the spinose morph has been a source of much conjecture that has influenced environmental reconstructions of this assemblage. In one hypothesis the spinose forms of P. hibbardi are assumed to be associated with brackish water conditions by analogy with some populations of a related hydrobiid Potamopyrgus jenkinsi. To test the hypothesis that the spinose forms lived under different water conditions than the non-spinose morphs, we analyzed 10 specimens each of the two varieties for stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in the shell aragonite.The mean isotope ratios for the smooth and spinose morphs show no significant difference (oxygen: t = 0.28, df = 18, P (T t) 0.78 n.s.; carbon: t = 0.96, df = 18, P (T t) 0.35 n.s). We conclude that the lack of a statistically significant difference between the means of the oxygen and carbon isotope values for the smooth and spinose morphs suggests that the two forms lived in waters having similar isotope signatures. The considerable range in oxygen isotope values recorded by both morphs of P. hibbardi, including values as high as 5–6, suggest that both morphs were associated with waters which were periodically evaporatively enriched in ¹⁸O.     

Holocene environmental changes in the Whitefish Dunes Area, Door Peninsula, Northern Lake Michigan Basin, USA

A two meter sediment core taken from an inter-dune pond in Whitefish Dunes State Park, Door Peninsula, Wisconsin, provides a record of paleoenvironmental changes in the area from approximately 3600 RCYBP to 5100 RCYBP. The hydrology of the Whitefish Dunes pond is now apparently dependent on ground water recharge from local precipitation that infiltrates into the dunes and from Clark Lane, making it very sensitive to low magnitude, short term climate fluctuations.Changes in lithology, molluscan species diversity, oxygen isotopes from gastropod shells, and sediment organic content permit division of the core into several intervals representing different environmental regimes. The basal sediments are older than 5130 RCYBP and resemble those of the Liberty Grove Member of the Pleistocene Horicon Formation. The oldest Holocene sediments recorded in the core are an organic rich layer dated at 5130 RCYBP, which accumulated in a depression on the surface of a sand bar. Continued rise in the local water table during the Nipissing Transgression produced paludal conditions in the area, which were followed by the onset of lacustrine conditions. During this interval, the area supported a diverse molluscan fauna. Minor, short term climate fluctuations are reflected in sediment and oxygen isotope changes which are absent from the record in deep water cores from Lake Michigan. This phase in the history of the area ended with the eutrophication of the pond and the development of dunes. Information from Whitefish Dunes pond and other onshore sites within the Lake Michigan basin are an important source of data for reconstructing the history of water levels and climate changes for this area of the Great Lakes drainage.     

A solution for the northern hemisphere climatic zonation during a glacial maximum

The same model previously used to deduce an acceptable first order picture of the present zonally averaged macroclimate is now solved for the climatic response to the “glacial” surface boundary conditions that prevailed at 18,000 BP in the northern hemisphere. The equilibrium solution obtained gives the distributions with latitude of the mean temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, evaporation, heat balance, transient baroclinic eddy statistics (i.e., kinetic energy of the meridional wind and meridional flux of heat, momentum, and water vapor), and the energy integrals. In general terms, the solution shows the glacial atmosphere to be colder and drier than at present, with an intensified polar front, stronger mean zonal and poloidal winds, more intense transient baroclinic eddies (storms) transporting heat, momentum and water vapor poleward at higher rates, and reduced precipitation and evaporation. Also evident is an equatorward shift of the climatic zones (as delineated by the mean surface zonal winds, the poloidal motion, and the difference between mean evaporation and precipitation), particularly in higher latitudes. Other properties of the solution, such as the effect of zonal wind changes on the length of the day, are discussed.     

Locational components of urban and regional public policy in postwar Vietnam: The case of Ho Chi Minh city (Saigon)

Ho Chi Minh city is a primate city in which wartime dislocations have resulted in severely overcrowded conditions as well as a shrunken economic base. The new government has opted for a policy based on the rapid decanting of a large proportion of the urban population by encouraging internal migration to New Economic Zones in the hinterlands. This policy is based on a hierarchial administrative structure with agricultural productivity as its prime goal. A Green Belt policy has been articulated that uses the New Economic Zones as building blocks. The Green Belts constrain urban growth as well as provide foodstuff for the remaining urban residents. The ultimate objective of the overall policy is a balanced urban and regional environment that is in tune with Vietnam's agricultural economy.