CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。     

龙门山小鱼洞断裂在汶川地震中的地表破裂及地质意义

在龙门山中段小鱼洞地区映秀－北川断裂和彭县－灌县断裂发生了同震位移,同时在该地区新出现了一条北西向的同震破裂带——小鱼洞断裂的破裂带,并分割了两条近于平行的北东向逆冲－走滑型的主断裂。汶川特大地震发生后重点对小鱼洞断裂的地表破裂开展了详细的野外地质填图,利用全站仪和GPS对地表破裂进行了精确的测量。初步调查的结果表明,小鱼洞断裂位于映秀－北川断裂与彭县－灌县断裂之间,走向近于北西向,延伸约15km,以脆性破裂为特征,穿过小鱼洞大桥,并切割了多种类型的地貌单元,使道路发生拱曲、破坏和桥梁垮塌或移位。单个破裂长度在几米到300m不等,其南西盘为上升盘,北东盘为下降盘,平均垂直位错为1.0m,平均水平位错为2.3m,垂直与水平位错量之比1 ∶1～1 ∶2,显示为逆冲分量小于或等于左旋走滑分量,并以左旋走滑作用为主。同时,研究表明小鱼洞断裂属于映秀－北川断裂与彭县－灌县断裂之间的捩断层,其主要特征包括： 1)是在汶川地震中由于龙门山逆冲体之间的差异逆冲运动过程中而形成的断裂; 2)其走向近于北西向,垂直于龙门山北东向的主干断裂,而平行于逆冲体的逆冲运动方向; 3)具有高角度断面的断层,以左旋走滑作用为主。     

内蒙古黄岗—甘珠尔庙成矿带铅锌矿综合信息找矿模型

以产于黄岗—甘珠尔庙成矿带的铅锌矿产为预测矿种,以铅锌矿矿床为目标物,较系统地分析了地层、岩浆岩等地质条件与铅锌矿产的关系,查明各种地质条件对铅锌矿产的控制作用与控制方式。二叠系与铅锌成矿在空间分布和物质成分方面有着密切的联系,锰质钙铁辉石夕卡岩及火山沉积岩为铅锌成矿提供物质来源;燕山期岩浆侵入活动形成的中酸性侵入体为有利岩体;成矿带内多组方向断裂的交汇部位是矿化富集区,使得矿床以北东成带、东西成行,各矿床之间具有等距离的特点进行分布。由地质信息、地球化学信息及矿化信息构成的矿床级别的综合信息找矿模型,为成矿带内铅锌矿产预测提供了理论依据。     

Teacher''s Aide: Modeling Hole-Effect Variograms of Lithology-Indicator Variables

Common variogram models, such as spherical or exponential functions, increase monotonically with increasing lag distance. On the other hand, a hole-effect variogram typically exhibits sinusoidal waves that form peaks and troughs, thereby conveying the cyclicity of the underlying phenomenon. In order to incorporate this cyclicity into a stochastic simulation, hole effects in the experimental variogram must be fitted appropriately. In this paper, we recommend use of several multiplicative-composite variogram models to fit hole-effect experimental variograms. These consist of a cosine function to provide wavelength and phase of cyclicity, multiplied by a monotonic model (e.g., spherical) to attenuate amplitudes of the cyclical peaks and troughs. These composite models can successfully fit experimental lithology-indicator variograms that contain a range of cyclicities, although experimental variograms with poor cyclicity require special considerations.     

三江平原沼泽地碳循环初探

在三江平原多年考察与研究的基础上，通过典型沼泽的定位观测，估算了三江平原沼泽土壤中的碳储量，探讨了沼泽植物对大气ＣＯ２的固定，碳素自沼泽土壤向大气的转移，沼泽近地气层ＣＯ２流，以及沼泽植物－土壤－大气之间的碳素流动。     

基于人工引雷的粤港澳闪电定位系统性能评估

利用2014—2019年中国气象局雷电野外科学试验基地广州从化人工触发闪电试验所获资料,评估粤港澳闪电定位系统(Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Lightning Location System,GHMLLS)性能,结果表明：GHMLLS对人工触发闪电和回击的探测效率分别为96%(48/50)和88%(233/265),回击位置定位误差的算术平均值、几何平均值和中值分别为279 m,193 m和202 m。对于触发闪电的回击过程,GHMLLS探测的回击电流峰值(ILLS)全部偏低,与通道底部雷电流峰值的直接测量结果(IDM)相比,ILLS的相对偏差平均值(中值)为-37%(-36%),但ILLS和IDM相关系数为0.93,存在显著正相关关系(达到0.01显著性水平);截距为0的线性拟合结果表明ILLS与IDM存在65%的比例关系,利用该系数校正ILLS,结果的相对偏差绝对值的平均值(中值)为15%(12%)。GHMLLS有对应定位记录的233次触发闪电回击中,16次定位结果为云闪,判别正确率为93%。被误判为云闪的回击的IDM更低,可用于定位的站点数量更少,定位误差更大,ILLS的精度更低。     

Landslides triggered by the 2016 Mj 7.3 Kumamoto,Japan, earthquake

The aim of this study is to establish a detailed and complete inventory of the landslides triggered by the Mj 7.3 (Mw 7.0) Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence of 15 April 2016 (16 April in JST). Based on high-resolution (0.5–2 m) optical satellite images, we delineated 3,467 individual landslides triggered by the earthquake, occupying an area of about 6.9 km². Then they were validated by aerial photographs with very high-resolution (better than 0.5 m) and oblique field photos. Of them, 3,460 landslides are distributed in an elliptical area about 6000 km², with a NE-SW directed 120-km-long long axis and a 60-km-long NW-SE trending short axis. Most of the landslides are shallow, disrupted falls and slides, with a few flow-type slides and rock and soil avalanches. The analysis of correlation between the landslides and several control factors shows the areas of elevation 1000–1200 m, stratum of Q₃-Hvf, seismic intensity VIII and VIII+, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) 0.4–0.6 g register the highest landslide abundance. This study also discussed the relationship between the spatial pattern of the landslides and the seismotectonic structure featured by a strike-slip fault with a normal component and the volcanism in the study area.     

Efficacy of Coagulants and Ballast Compounds in Removal of Cyanobacteria (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Microcystis</Emphasis>) from Water of the Tropical Lagoon Jacarepaguá (Rio de Janeiro,Brazil)

Eutrophication is considered the most important water quality problem in freshwaters and coastal waters worldwide promoting frequent occurrence of blooms of potentially toxic cyanobacteria. Removal of cyanobacteria from the water column using a combination of coagulant and ballast is a promising technique for mitigation and an alternative to the use of algaecides. In laboratory, we tested experimentally the efficiency of two coagulants, polyaluminium chloride (PAC) and chitosan (made of shrimp shells), alone and combined with two ballasts: red soil (RS) and the own lagoon sediment, to remove natural populations of cyanobacteria, from an urban brackish coastal lagoon. PAC was a very effective coagulant when applied at low doses (≤8 mg Al L^?1) and settled the cyanobacteria, while at high doses (≥16 mg Al L^?1) large flocks aggregated in the top of test tubes. In contrast, chitosan was not able to form flocks, even in high doses (>16 mg L^?1) and did not efficiently settle down cyanobacteria when combined with ballast. The RS itself removed 33–47 % of the cyanobacteria. This removal was strongly enhanced when combined with PAC in a dose-dependent matter; 8 mg Al L^?1 was considered the best dose to be applied. The lagoon sediment alone did not promote any settling of cyanobacteria but removal was high when combined with PAC. Combined coagulant and ballast seems a very efficient, cheap, fast and safe curative measure to lessen the harmful cyanobacteria bloom nuisance in periods when particularly needed, such as around the 2016 Olympics in Jacarepaguá Lagoon.     

云南文山丘北地区上二叠统含煤地层特征

在分析以往地质资料的基础上,通过煤田地质填图、实测剖面测量、槽探等勘查手段,对文山丘北地区地层及构造特征进行分析。区内构造从属于文山巨型旋钮构造,主要发育庄科一密纳复式背斜及尼尼白一笼陶向斜,上二叠统为主要含煤地层,由于沉积环境的差异,在调查区西南部发育龙潭组,其他大部分地区为吴家坪组,龙潭组为主要含煤地层,煤层厚度较小,厚度变化较大,为高灰、高硫、低热值的贫煤。