台风决策气象服务初探——以“纳沙”台风为例

随着经济增长和社会发展,台风灾害带来的损失越发严重和致命,科学、准确地为政府决策层提供决策服务产品,在保障人民生命财产安全、促进社会经济发展乃至稳定和谐等方面都起着非常重要的作用。立足于台风决策气象服务业务实践,通过完整再现2011年最强台风＂纳沙＂的决策气象服务过程,总结和提炼出目前台风决策气象服务的主要方式和产品编制要求、流程,并挖掘出服务的经验和亮点;同时,分析现实服务中客观存在的一些弊端和问题,思考进一步改进方案,旨在不断提升决策气象服务产品的质量,全力做好台风决策气象服务工作,从而为政府及相关部门应急决策管理提供科学的依据,为台风防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。     

昆明市地热田越流含水系统中地下热水的数值模拟

深层基岩地下（热）水水化学污染问题日趋严重,急需定量而仿真地模拟和预报天然状态和各种人为工程经济活动下地下（热）水流动及溶质（或污染物）的运移。在充分认识地质、水文地质条件的基础上,建立了考虑温压变化和越流条件的昆明市地热田深层基岩地下热水系统中水流和溶质运移的准三维非稳定流数学模型。模型用于开采条件下地热田地下热水水位及 F^－、Cl^－浓度的模拟,模拟结果具有较高的仿真性,拟合误差一般小于 2％～5％,表明模型合理、可靠。应用所建模型预测了开采条件下昆明市地热田II块段地下热水流场和溶质浓度动态的变化趋势,并提出了控制地下热水环境进一步恶化的措施。     

汶川地震对湖北地震活动趋势的影响

5·12汶川地震之前的3年多时间里,湖北境内及周边依次发生了九江Ms5.7、随州帆4.7、荆州帆4.2和竹山帆4.6等一系列中等强度地震,地震活动的频度和强度均明显高于近几十年的平均水平,在湖北历史地震中这种情况也不多见,在时间上又恰好发生在汶川地震之前.本文通过大地构造背景、历史地震活动、汶川地震前后湖北地震活动情况分析和震源机制解等方面探讨了近几年湖北地震活动与汶川地震的关系.     

基于纹理和空间特征的中分辨率影像滨海水产养殖用地提取研究

近年来,水产养殖用地分布广泛,但由于其在影像上所表现的复杂性和不均匀性,造成该用地类型提取中的困难,尤其针对中分辨率遥感影像。对此,本文提出了一种基于纹理和空间特征的养殖用地提取方法,该方法主要包括3个步骤：首先,利用纹理熵和归一化差异水体指数NDWI实现水产养殖用地的粗提取;然后,依据相邻地物间的关系实现同类型地物合并;最后,本文构建一种相对宽度作为地物的近似宽度,再次利用NDWI实现水产养殖用地的准确识别。本文以越南万丰湾为研究区域,以Landat-8融合影像（融合后的像元大小为15 m）的目视解译结果为标准,对本文方法与最小距离法分类结果进行比较。实验结果表明,该方法的精度可达91.13%,远高于传统的面向对象方法,并且所提方法的错误率和虚假率分别为0.09%和8.87％,表明了该方法可靠性,因而该方法可为基于中分辨率影像的地物类型提取提供一种有效手段。     

2007和2008年夏季北京奥运馆大气PM10与PM2.5质量浓度变化特征

为了监测北京奥运主场馆附近大气颗粒物的污染状况以及评估奥运污染源减排措施对北京大气颗粒物质量浓度变化的影响,利用颗粒物在线监测仪器TEOM于2007年和2008年夏季,在奥运主场馆附近的中国科学院遥感应用研究所办公楼楼顶对大气颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5进行了连续同步观测。结果表明,2007年夏季监测点附近大气PM₁₀与PM_2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为153.9和71.2μg·m^-3,而2008年夏季PM₁₀与PM_2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为85.2和52.8μg·m^-3。与奥运前一年同时段相比,奥运时段大气PM₁₀和PM_2.5的质量浓度分别下降44.5%和25.1%。对比分析奥运前后的2次典型污染过程发现,空气相对湿度的增加和偏南气流输送的共同影响易造成大气颗粒物的累积增长,而降雨的湿清除作用和偏北气流则会使大气颗粒物浓度迅速降低。在相近的气象条件下,奥运前后的污染过程中,大气细粒子的日均增长速率分别为25.1和13.9μg·m^-3·d^-1,而大气粗粒子的日均增长速率分别为20.8和2.2μg·m^-3·d^-1,奥运时段污染累积过程中大气粗、细粒子的增长速率分别显著低于和略低于奥运前同时段污染过程中颗粒物的增长速率。污染源减排措施的实施是奥运期间大气颗粒物质量浓度降低的主要原因,从控制效果来看,奥运期间实施的污染源减排措施对大气粗粒子的控制效果明显好于大气细粒子。     

扇贝的养殖环境及其体内的细菌学分析

自1992年9月～1994年11月，对青岛胶州湾养殖的扇贝及环境中的细菌组成和某些生态学特性进行了调查。养殖区表层海水中异养菌和弧菌平均数各波动于（21．2～39．7）×102／cm3和（7．3～19．2）×102／cm3之间。其中1号和4号站位的菌数比其它越位都高，这和它们靠近码头，受到附近的排水污染有关。在扇贝的消化盲囊和性腺内也分离到异养菌和弧菌，分别为103～105个g和103～105个／g。这些细菌可能因扇贝遇到环境改变防御能力下降时，扩散到其它器官并大量繁殖，因而造成感染而死亡。从对分离菌的药物敏感试验结果看，近年一些菌株对原来敏感的药物产生了抗药性，如四环索和链霉素，今后在育苗过程中避免滥用抗菌药物是十分重要的。     

Stratification response of soil water content during rainfall events under different rainfall patterns

Many researchers have studied the influence of rainfall patterns on soil water movement processes using rainfall simulation experiments. However, less attention has been paid to the influence under natural condition. In this paper, rainfall, soil water content (SWC), and soil temperature at 10‐, 20‐, 30‐, 40‐, and 50‐cm depths were simultaneously monitored at 1‐min intervals to measure the variation in SWC (SWCv) in response to rainfall under different rainfall patterns. First, we classified rainfall events into four patterns. During the study period, the main pattern was the advanced rainfall pattern (38% of all rainfall events), whereas the delayed, central, and uniform rainfall patterns had similar frequencies of about 20%. During natural rainfall, rainwater rapidly passed through the top soil layers (10–40 cm) and was accumulated in the bottom layer (50 cm). When a high rainfall pulse occurred, the water storage balance was disturbed, resulting in the drainage of initial soil water from the top layers into the deeper layers. Therefore, the critical function of the top layers and the bottom layers was infiltration and storage, respectively. The source of water stored in the bottom layer was not only rainfall but also the initial soil water in the upper soil layers. Changes in soil temperature at each soil depth were comonitored with SWCv to determine the movement characteristics of soil water under different rainfall patterns. Under the delayed rainfall pattern, preferential flows preferred to occur. Under the other rainfall patterns, matrix flow was the main form of soil water movement. Rainfall amount was a better indicator than rainfall intensity for SWCv in the bottom layer under the delayed rainfall pattern. These results provide insights into the responses of SWCv under different rainfall patterns in northern China.     

过去2000年以来地磁偶极子的长期变化

利用地磁场模型资料,计算和分析了公元0～2000年的地磁场偶极子磁矩和地磁北极位置的长期变化。结果表明:过去2000年中,地磁场的偶极子磁矩并非一直减小,有近400年的时间是持续增长的。地磁北极位置的移动并不均匀,在纬度方向的变化范围只有10°左右,经度方向变化有255°。     

Effects of Environmental Cadmium on Cadmium Accumulation,Oxidative Response,and Microelements Regulation in the Liver and Kidney of Hexagrammos otakii

The effects of cadmium(Cd)on metal accumulation,microelements contents,and antioxidant responses in Hexagram-mos otakii were studied.The fish were exposed to 0.2,2.5,or 10μg L?1 Cd for 12 or 24 days.Then,the concentration of Cd and mi-croelements(Ca,Fe,Zn,and Se)were determined in the liver and kidney.Moreover,the activities of antioxidant enzymes including superoxide dismutase(SOD),catalase(CAT),and glutathione-S-transferase(GST),and the content of malondialdehyde(MDA)in the liver and kidney were also measured.A continuous accumulation of Cd was observed throughout the experimental period.Cd accumulation was higher in liver than that in the kidney,while Ca and Fe contents were lower in liver than those in the kidney.Cd exposure resulted in a decrease of Ca and Fe concentrations in the kidney,while there was no effect on the liver.Zn and Se remained unaffected with exposure to Cd.Cd exposure induced severe oxidative stress in H.otakii,as indicated by significant induction of the activities of SOD,CAT,and GST,and a simultaneous increase of MDA content.These data show that antioxidant enzymes and mi-croelements contents can be used as potential biomarkers to monitor environmental health in fish.     

农业生态地质调查初探——以辽宁鞍山南部地区为例

以鞍山南部地区农业生态地质调查为例,阐述了通过测定主要元素在土壤中的分布,综合评价农业生态地质背景,从而研究土地种植适宜性及土壤环境安全性和治理对策,进而讨论在辽宁省开展农业生态地质调查研究的主要内容及意义.此外,对特种经济作物南果梨专项调查表明,土壤中铁、锰、镁、钾、钴元素含量决定了南果梨的独特品质,以变辉长岩或片岩和花岗岩混合岩为成土母岩地区是南果梨生长的最佳区域.