On the boundary conditions in slope stability analysis

Boundary conditions can affect computed factor of safety results in two‐ and three‐dimensional stability analyses of slopes. Commonly used boundary conditions in two‐ and three‐dimensional slope stability analyses via limit‐equilibrium and continuum‐mechanics based solution procedures are described. A sample problem is included to illustrate the importance of boundary conditions in slope stability analyses. The sample problem is solved using two‐ and three‐dimensional numerical models commonly used in engineering practice. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

H α Observations of 8 June, 2004 Venus Transit

The cosmic event of Venus transit across the solar disk occurred on 8 June, 2004. The previous such event was witnessed about 122 years ago on 6 December, 1882. We observed this rare transit in H _α 6563 Å line-center from Udaipur Solar Observatory (USO) using both the full-disk and small field-of-view solar telescopes. In the earlier historical transits, a “black-drop” effect was observed in white light images, during the contact phases. The transit of 8 June, 2004 provided a unique opportunity to observe this effect, for the first time, in H _α. We report that the “black-drop” effect is present in H _α also, as in the white light observations made by the ground-based Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) instrument and the space-borne Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) satellite. We did not observe any noticeable “aureole” (atmospheric glow) around Venus during the ingress or egress phases. We have compared the H _α images with the multi-wavelength data obtained from the TRACE satellite.     

Flare-Induced Excitation of Solar p modes

Solar flares release large amounts of energy at different layers of the solar atmosphere, including at the photosphere in the case of exceptionally major events. Therefore, it is expected that large flares would be able to excite acoustic waves on the solar surface, thereby affecting the p-mode oscillation characteristics. We have applied the ring-diagram analysis technique to 3-D power spectra obtained for different flare regions in order to study how flares affect the amplitude, frequency and width of the acoustic modes. Data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has been used. We have used data obtained for several active regions of the current solar cycle that have produced flares. In most cases, during the period of high flare activity, power in p modes appears to be larger when compared to that in non-flaring regions of similar magnetic field strength.     

Near Infrared Observations of Sakurai's Object during 1998–99

We present new near-infrared observations of Sakurai's Object obtainedduring 1998–99 when this final helium shell flash object was in the dustcondensation phase. The infrared colours have reddened compared to earlierepochs, indicating increased dust condensation. The infrared spectrareveal all the features of a carbon star superposed on a dust continuum.     

Decline in horizontal surface visibility over India (1961–2008) and its association with meteorological variables

Horizontal surface visibility range, one of the simplest measures of local atmospheric pollution, is critical for aviation, surface transport besides long-term impact on human health and climate. Long-term observations from multiple stations (including airports) across the world show statistically significant decline in visibility. We have studied climatology and trends of morning poor visibility days (PVD, visibility <4 km) and afternoon good visibility days (GVD, visibility >10 km) based on 279 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1961–2008. During last 5 decades, all India averaged range of annual morning PVD has increased from 6.7 to 27.3 % days, while the range of afternoon GVD has decreased from 76.1 to 30.6 % days. Annually, the morning PVD increased significantly at 3.3 % days per decade, and the afternoon GVD declined significantly at ?8.6 % days per decade. Seasonally, the highest increase in morning PVD has occurred in winter (+4.3 % days per decade), while post-monsoon has the highest decrease in afternoon GVD (?9.2 % days per decade). In spatial distribution, visibility has decreased nationwide especially over Indo-Gangetic (IG) plains, central, east and northeast India which is due to increased wintertime fog, water vapor and aerosol loading. The IG plains suffer from increased fog or smog and aerosol loading during wintertime. Long-term visibility impairment over India is visible through increasing morning PVD (decreasing GVD) and decreasing afternoon GVD (increasing PVD) which are spatially well correlated with increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed (seasonal).     

Water and post-conflict peacebuilding

ABSTRACT

Water-management issues cut across all sectors of governance and have a critical bearing on many post-conflict challenges. The imperative of adequate water supply and the weakness of the state in a post-conflict period provide a nexus which demands comprehensive and well thought-out policy planning, for the short term as well as for the long term. However, very little research has been conducted on the nexus between water management and sustainable development in war-torn societies that are undergoing processes of peacebuilding. This article, after critically reviewing the contribution of water scarcity to security challenges and peacemaking, makes an attempt to contribute to the policy debate on how carefully planned interventions in the water sector can significantly contribute to the post-conflict peacebuilding process, from immediate recovery and rebuilding to long-term sustainable development goals and lasting peace.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis GUEST EDITOR K. Aggestam     

Extraction of information content from stochastic disaggregation and bias corrected downscaled precipitation variables for crop simulation

We applied a simple statistical downscaling procedure for transforming daily global climate model (GCM) rainfall to the scale of an agricultural experimental station in Katumani, Kenya. The transformation made was two-fold. First, we corrected the rainfall frequency bias of the climate model by truncating its daily rainfall cumulative distribution into the station’s distribution based on a prescribed observed wet-day threshold. Then, we corrected the climate model rainfall intensity bias by mapping its truncated rainfall distribution into the station’s truncated distribution. Further improvements were made to the bias corrected GCM rainfall by linking it with a stochastic disaggregation scheme to correct the time structure problem inherent with daily GCM rainfall. Results of the simple and hybridized GCM downscaled precipitation variables (total, probability of occurrence, intensity and dry spell length) were linked with a crop model for a more objective evaluation of their performance using a non-linear measure based on mutual information based on entropy. This study is useful for the identification of both suitable downscaling technique as well as the effective precipitation variables for forecasting crop yields using GCM’s outputs which can be useful for addressing food security problems beforehand in critical basins around the world.     

Ground motion estimation in Delhi from postulated regional and local earthquakes

Ground motions are estimated at 55 sites in Delhi, the capital of India from four postulated earthquakes (three regional M _w?=?7.5, 8.0, and 8.5 and one local). The procedure consists of (1) synthesis of ground motion at a hard reference site (NDI) and (2) estimation of ground motion at other sites in the city via known transfer functions and application of the random vibration theory. This work provides a more extensive coverage than earlier studies (e.g., Singh et al., Bull Seism Soc Am 92:555–569, 2002; Bansal et al., J Seismol 13:89–105, 2009). The Indian code response spectra corresponding to Delhi (zone IV) are found to be conservative at hard soil sites for all postulated earthquakes but found to be deficient for M _w?=?8.0 and 8.5 earthquakes at soft soil sites. Spectral acceleration maps at four different natural periods are strongly influenced by the shallow geological and soil conditions. Three pockets of high acceleration values are seen. These pockets seem to coincide with the contacts of (a) Aravalli quartzite and recent Yamuna alluvium (towards the East), (b) Aravalli quartzite and older quaternary alluvium (towards the South), and (c) older quaternary alluvium and recent Yamuna alluvium (towards the North).     

Characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska

Abstract

The characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska and the relative significance of earthquake sources for establishing seismic design inputs at a typical site for engineering purposes are discussed. Earthquake sources in the complex tectonic environment can be divided into two groups: (a) a subduction zone that underlies the entire region (maximum magnitude M = 8.5); and (b) individual thrust and strike‐slip faults associated with the plate motions (maximum magnitude M = 6 to 7.5). The sources of either group and individual earthquake events can be represented as planar surfaces for consistency with the physical process and a mathematically tractable computational scheme.

Although the area is very active seismically, the degree of activity of individual sources varies significantly. Therefore, even for sources with the same maximum earthquakes, different magnitudes may apply for a selected design return period. The area is considered to be a “seismic gap.”; No great earthquakes have occurred in nearly 80 years. Estimates based on a temporally varying seismic function such as the semi‐Markov model indicate that the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake in the near future is significantly higher than the average probability inferred from a statistical analysis of historical seismicity data of the entire region.

Separate attenuation relationships should be used for calculating ground motions due to earthquakes on the dipping subduction zone in the northern portion of the gulf. The dominant earthquake source for almost the entire Gulf of Alaska region is the subduction zone that contributes over 80 percent of the seismic exposure at a typical site. The dominant magnitude range is M_s = 6.5 to 7.5. “Gap filling”; earthquakes (M_s = 7.5 to 8.25) contribute a little over a third of the seismic exposure at a typical site. Deterministic assessments of ground motion values using the maximum earthquake on the subduction zone at the closest distance yield values significantly higher than those calculated for even 500‐year return periods. Estimated 100‐year return period accelerations in the area range from 180 to 340 cm/sec².