Spatiotemporal dynamics of water sources in a mountain river basin inferred through δ2H and δ18O of water

In mountainous river basins of the Pacific Northwest, climate models predict that winter warming will result in increased precipitation falling as rain and decreased snowpack. A detailed understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of water sources across river networks will help illuminate climate change impacts on river flow regimes. Because the stable isotopic composition of precipitation varies geographically, variation in surface water isotope ratios indicates the volume-weighted integration of upstream source water. We measured the stable isotope ratios of surface water samples collected in the Snoqualmie River basin in western Washington over June and September 2017 and the 2018 water year. We used ordinary least squares regression and geostatistical Spatial Stream Network models to relate surface water isotope ratios to mean watershed elevation (MWE) across seasons. Geologic and discharge data was integrated with water isotopes to create a conceptual model of streamflow generation for the Snoqualmie River. We found that surface water stable isotope ratios were lowest in the spring and highest in the dry, Mediterranean summer, but related strongly to MWE throughout the year. Low isotope ratios in spring reflect the input of snowmelt into high elevation tributaries. High summer isotope ratios suggest that groundwater is sourced from low elevation areas and recharged by winter precipitation. Overall, our results suggest that baseflow in the Snoqualmie River may be relatively resilient to predicted warming and subsequent changes to snowpack in the Pacific Northwest.     

The distinct metamorphic stages and structural styles of the 1.94–1.86 Ga Snowbird Orogen,Northwest Territories,Canada

Palaeoproterozoic orogenesis within the Archean southeastern Rae craton is related to the initial amalgamation of Laurentia. Characterizing the accompanying tectonic processes during this time has been complicated due to polymetamorphism, which results in the obscuring of the age record of the terranes involved. To improve the knowledge of the tectonic evolution of the South Rae Craton, petrologic and structural analyses are applied in conjunction with in situ trace element chemistry, inclusion barometry, U–Pb monazite and titanite, and Lu–Hf garnet chronology. The data robustly constrain Palaeoproterozoic pressure–temperature–time paths of major deformational events along the southeastern Rae craton margin. D₁ occurred between 1.94 and 1.93 Ga in the Dodge-Snowbird domain, which included prograde burial of metasedimentary rocks, deposited at 2.2–2.0 Ga, and the development of migmatitic layering and east-southeast trending folds (S₁, F₁). Peak metamorphism is recorded in metasedimentary units at c. 1.93 Ga when rocks reached conditions of 9.0–10.5 kbar and 810–830°C. Within the Dodge-Snowbird domain, D₂ imparted north-northeast trending open folds and associated axial planar cleavage (S₂, F₂) between 1.93 and 1.90 Ga during east-west compression that appears to have been synchronous with cooling and exhumation. Later D₂ deformation, localized within the Wholdaia Lake shear zone (WLsz; S_T1), developed in the footwall of this thrust-sense structure at 1,873 ± 5 Ma at conditions of 9.5–11.0 kbar and 820–850°C. The hangingwall Dodge-Snowbird domain had already cooled to below 300°C by then, indicating a significant structural and metamorphic break across the domain's western boundary. A new phase of unroofing (D₃) involved pervasive amphibolite- to greenschist facies extensional shearing (S_T2) within the WLsz, which overprinted S_T1 foliations between 1.87 and 1.86 Ga. Continued greenschist facies shearing younger than 1.86 Ga likely ended by c. 1.83 Ga when lamprophyre dykes cut the structure, which was followed by cooling until c. 1.80 Ga. This work highlights the utility and application of multiple chronometers (zircon, monazite, titanite, garnet) along with structural and petrologic analysis that together can resolve precise orogenic cycles in polymetamorphic terranes that may otherwise be undetected. The time-resolved P–T–D histories derived here enable more robust interpretations regarding the nature and evolution of 1.9 Ga tectonism along the southeast Rae craton margin, which may be used to refine models for Laurentian terrane amalgamation.     

Atmospheric control of the cooling rate of impact melts and cryolavas on Titan’s surface

As on Earth, Titan’s atmosphere plays a major role in the cooling of heated surfaces. We have assessed the mechanisms by which Titan’s atmosphere, dominantly N₂ at a surface pressure of 1.5 × 10⁵ Pa, cools a warm or heated surface. These heated areas can be caused by impacts generating melt sheets and (possibly) by endogenic processes emplacing cryolavas (a low-temperature liquid that freezes on the surface). We find that for a cooling cryolava flow, lava lake, or impact melt body, heat loss is mainly driven by atmospheric convection. Radiative heat loss, a dominant heat loss mechanism with terrestrial silicate lava flows, plays only a minor role on Titan. Long-term cooling and solidification are dependent on melt sheet or flow thickness, and also local climate, because persistent winds will speed cooling. Relatively rapid cooling caused by winds reduces the detectability of these thermal events by instruments measuring surface thermal emission. Because surface temperature drops by ≈50% within ≈1 day of emplacement, fresh flows or impact melt may be difficult to detect via thermal emission unless an active eruption is directly observed. Cooling of flow or impact melt surfaces are orders of magnitude faster on Titan than on airless moons (e.g., Enceladus or Europa).Although upper surfaces cool fast, the internal cooling and solidification process is relatively slow. Cryolava flow lengths are, therefore, more likely to be volume (effusion) limited, rather than cooling-limited. More detailed modeling awaits constraints on the thermophysical properties of the likely cryomagmas and surface materials.     

Distributed empirical algorithms to estimate catchment scale sediment connectivity and yield in a subtropical region

The intensity of soil loss and sediment delivery, representing hydrologic and geomorphic processes within a catchment, accelerates with rapid changes in land cover and rainfall events. An underlying component of sustainable management of water resources is an understanding of spatial and temporal variability and the adverse influences of regional parameters involved in generating sediment following widespread changes in land cover. A calibrated algorithm of soil loss coupled with a sediment delivery ratio (SDR) was applied in raster data layers to improve the capability of a combined model to estimate annual variability in sediment yields related to changes in vegetation cover identified by analyses of SPOT imagery. Four catchments in Kangaroo River State forest were assessed for annual changes in sediment yields. Two catchments were selectively logged in 2007, while the two other sites remained undisturbed. Results of SDR estimates indicated that only a small proportion of total eroded sediment from hillslopes is transported to catchment outlets. Larger SDR values were estimated in regions close to catchment outlets, and the SDR reduced sharply on hillslopes further than 200–300 m from these areas. Estimated sediment yield increased by up to 30% two years after land cover change (logging) in 2009 when more storm events were recorded, despite the moderate density of vegetation cover in 2009 having almost recovered to its initial pre‐logging (2005) condition. Rainfall had the most significant influence on streamflow and sediment delivery in all catchments, with steeply sloping areas contributing large amounts of sediment during moderate and high rainfall years in 2007 and 2009. It is concluded that the current scenario of single‐tree selection logging utilized in the study area is an acceptable and environmentally sound land management strategy for preservation of soil and water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure

Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy. In a non-stationary world, however, it is risky and/or uneconomic to plan for just one climate change scenario as an average or best estimate, as is done with the use of the Predict-Then-Adapt method. We argue that responsible adaptation requires an alternative method that effectively allows for the lack of knowledge about future climate change by adopting a managed/adaptive strategy. The managed/adaptive strategy confers the ability, derived from built-in flexibility, to adjust to future uncertainties as they unfold. This will restrict the effect of erroneous decisions and help avoid maladaptation. Real In Options (RIO) analysis can facilitate the development of an optimal managed/adaptive strategy to climate change. Here, we show the economic benefits of adopting a managed/adaptive strategy and building in flexibility, using RIO analysis applied for the first time to urban drainage infrastructure.     

The effect of changes in surface resistance on temperature and humidity fields and fluxes of sensible and latent heat

In this paper we consider temperature (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGafuiMdeLbae% baaaa!377B!\[\bar \Theta \]) and specific humidity (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmyuayaara% aaaa!36DA!\[\bar Q\]) fields in the lower part of the planetary boundary layer and present a method for calculating the way these variables and their fluxes vary over changes in available surface moisture expressed as a surface resistance. Near the surface, the turbulence is close to equilibrium and an eddy diffusivity model enables the changes in (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGafuiMdeLbae% baaaa!377B!\[\bar \Theta \]), % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmyuayaara% aaaa!36DA!\[\bar Q\], sensible heat flux (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOrayaara% WaaSbaaSqaaiaadIeaaeqaaaaa!37C8!\[\bar F_H \]), and latent heat flux (% MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOrayaara% WaaSbaaSqaaiaadweaaeqaaaaa!37C5!\[\bar F_E \]) to be determined in terms of the assumed mean wind, turbulence profiles and upwind profiles of temperature and humidity. An important advantage of this method is that it is possible to consider arbitrary changes in surface properties.     

Taming global flood disasters. Lessons learned from Dutch experience

There is a growing international recognition that flood risk management in optima forma should be a programmed and flexible process of continuously improving management practices by active learning about the outcome of earlier and ongoing interventions and drivers of change. In the Netherlands, such a long-term, adaptive flood risk management strategy is now being implemented. This so-called second Delta Programme aims to identify and exploit opportunities and capitalize on short-term benefits and opportunistic synergies that arise from change and will require adaptive policymaking. It also requires the financial and institutional means to operate in a long-lasting way, which at the very least, means engaging stakeholders, gathering and disseminating results and adaptation of future plans. Transferring the Dutch approach to other countries is a major challenge that calls for fundamental changes in institutional arrangements at various levels and thus requires customized programmes for strategic institutional change. Recent examples of transfer will provide important lessons of how institutional change can successfully occur and will contribute insights for other countries that attempting to reform their flood risk management strategies. Continuous monitoring and evaluation and sharing international experiences will become crucial for the effective delivery and wider uptake of these new strategies around the globe.     

The heartbeat of the volcano: The discovery of episodic activity at Prometheus on Io

The temporal signature of thermal emission from a volcano is a valuable clue to the processes taking place both at and beneath the surface. The Galileo Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) observed the volcano Prometheus, on the jovian moon Io, on multiple occasions between 1996 and 2002. The 5 micron (μm) brightness of this volcano shows considerable variation from orbit to orbit. Prometheus exhibits increases in thermal emission that indicate episodic (though non-periodic) effusive activity in a manner akin to the current Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha (afterwards referred to as the Pu'u 'O'o) eruption of Kilauea, Hawai'i. The volume of material erupted during one Prometheus eruption episode (defined as the interval from minimum thermal emission to peak and back to minimum) from 6 November 1996 to 7 May 1997 is estimated to be ∼0.8 km³, with a peak instantaneous volumetric flux (effusion rate) of ∼140 m³ s⁻¹, and an averaged volumetric flux (eruption rate) of ∼49 m³ s⁻¹. These quantities are used to model subsurface structure, magma storage and magma supply mechanisms, and likely magma chamber depth. Prometheus appears to be supplied by magma from a relatively shallow magma chamber, with a roof at a minimum depth of ∼2-3 km and a maximum depth of ∼14 km. This is a much shallower depth range than sources of supply proposed for explosive, possibly ultramafic, eruptions at Pillan and Tvashtar. As Prometheus-type effusive activity is widespread on Io, shallow magma chambers containing magma of basaltic or near-basaltic composition and density may be common. This analysis strengthens the analogy between Prometheus and Pu'u 'O'o, at least in terms of eruption style. Even though the style of eruption appears to be similar (effusive emplacement of thin, insulated, compound pahoehoe flows) the scale of activity at Prometheus greatly exceeds current activity at Pu'u 'O'o in terms of volume erupted, area covered, and magma flux. Whereas the estimated magma chamber at Prometheus dwarfs the Pu'u 'O'o magma chamber, it fits within expectations if the Pu'u 'O'o chamber were scaled for the greater volumetric flux and lower gravity of Io. Recent volumetric eruption rates derived from Galileo data for Prometheus were considerably smaller than the rate that produced the extensive flows formed in the ∼17 years between the Voyager and Galileo missions. These smaller eruption rates, coupled with the fact that flows are not expanding laterally, may mean that the immediate heat source that generates the Prometheus plume is simultaneously running out of available volatiles and the thermal energy that drives mobilization of volatiles. This raises the question of whether the current Prometheus eruption is in its last throes.     

Photodissociation regions and star formation in the Carina nebula

We have obtained wide-field thermal infrared (IR) images of the Carina nebula, using the SPIREX/Abu telescope at the South Pole. Emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at 3.29 μm, a tracer of photodissociation regions (PDRs), reveals many interesting well-defined clumps and diffuse regions throughout the complex. Near-IR images  (1–2 μm)  , along with images from the Midcourse Space Experiment ( MSX ) satellite  (8–21 μm)  have been incorporated to study the interactions between the young stars and the surrounding molecular cloud in more detail. Two new PAH emission clumps have been identified in the Keyhole nebula, and have been mapped in  ¹²CO(2–1)  and  (1–0)  using the Swedish–ESO Submillimetre Telescope (SEST). Analysis of their physical properties reveals that they are dense molecular clumps, externally heated with PDRs on their surfaces and supported by external pressure in a similar manner to the other clumps in the region. A previously identified externally heated globule containing IRAS 10430−5931 in the southern molecular cloud shows strong 3.29-, 8- and 21-μm emission, the spectral energy distribution (SED) revealing the location of an ultracompact (UC) H  ii region. The northern part of the nebula is complicated, with PAH emission intermixed with mid-IR dust continuum emission. Several point sources are located here, and through a two-component blackbody fit to their SEDs we have identified three possible UC H  ii regions as well as a young star surrounded by a circumstellar disc. This implies that star formation in this region is ongoing and not halted by the intense radiation from the surrounding young massive stars.