Resonant behavior of comet Halley and the Orionid stream

Comet 1P/Halley has the unique distinction of having a very comprehensive set of observational records for almost every perihelion passage from 240 B.C. This has helped to constrain theoretical models pertaining to its orbital evolution. Many previous works have shown the active role of mean motion resonances (MMR) in the evolution of various meteoroid streams. Here, we look at how various resonances, especially the 1:6 and 2:13 MMR with Jupiter, affect comet 1P/Halley and thereby enhance the chances of meteoroid particles getting trapped in resonance, leading to meteor outbursts in some particular years. Comet Halley itself librated in the 2:13 resonance from 240 B.C. to 1700 A.D. and in the 1:6 resonance from 1404 B.C. to 690 B.C., while stream particles can survive for time scales of the order of 10,000 yr and 1,000 yr in the 1:6 and 2:13 resonances, respectively. This determines the long‐term dynamical evolution and stream structure, influencing the occurrence of Orionid outbursts. Specifically, we are able to correlate the occurrence of enhanced meteor phenomena seen between 1436–1440, 1933–1938, and 2006–2010 with the 1:6 resonance and meteor outbursts in 1916 and 1993 with the 2:13 resonance. Ancient as well as modern observational records agree with these theoretical simulations to a very good degree.     

Theoretical meteor radiants for macroscopic Taurid Complex objects

The calculation of theoretical meteor radiants is discussed for comets and asteroids whose orbits pass within, but at present do not necessarily intersect, that of the Earth, in particular from the perspective of developing a suitable method for application to Taurid Complex orbits. The main question addressed here is how to allow for dynamical evolution between epochs when an orbit isnot Earth-intersecting (as at present in most cases for macroscopic bodies) and those when itis (i.e., when meteors can actually be observed). This should be understood in terms of evolution in the past, such that meteoroids released some time ago have evolved differentially from the putative parents, allowing meteors to be detected now. Theoretical radiants for macroscopic Taurid objects are then presented and compared with observations of the nighttime and daytime Taurid meteor showers. These are found to be broadly similar in form, given the sparsity of some of the data, adding weight to the hypothesis that this sub-jovian complex contains kilometre-plus asteroids. A similar conclusion results for the group of objects in similar orbits to (2212) Hephaistos.     

Estimation of the Shale Oil/Gas Potential of a Paleocene–Eocene Succession: A Case Study from the Meyal Area, Potwar Basin, Pakistan

The successful exploration and production of shale-gas resources in the United States and Canada sets a new possible solution towards the energy crisis presently affecting most countries of Asia. This study focuses on the use of well log and 2D seismic data for the characterization of the shale oil/gas potential of a Paleocene–Eocene succession — the Meyal area in the Potwar Basin of Pakistan. Two shaly plays are identified in Paleocene–Eocene strata in well logs using ΔLogR and modified ΔLogR cross-plot techniques. The results indicate that Paleocene shale(the Patala Formation) and the lower shaly part of Eocene limestone(Sakesar Formation) can be potentially mature source rocks. However, the thermal maturity modelling proves that only the Paleocene shale is mature. Our results also suggest that the maturity responses on ΔLogR models for the lower shaly part of the Eocene limestone are due to trapped hydrocarbons in the intra-formational fractures. Petroelastic/petrophysical analysis of the Patala Formation reveals two potential shale oil/gas zones on the basis of Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, Brittleness index and Total Organic Content at an exploitation depth of 3980–3988 m. This work can provide valuable insight for estimating shale oil/gas potential in highly deformed basins not only in Asia but in other parts of the world.     

The influence of climate and microclimate (aspect) on soil creep efficiency: Cinder cone morphology and evolution along the eastern Mediterranean Golan Heights

Although hillslope evolution has been subject to much investigation for more than a century, the effect of climate on the morphology of soil‐mantled hillslopes remains poorly constrained. In this study, we perform numerical simulations of volcanic cinder cones in the Golan Heights (eastern Mediterranean) to estimate soil transport efficiency across a significant north–south gradient in mean annual precipitation (1100 to 500 mm). We use the initial cinder cone morphology (constrained by stratigraphy), the modern hillslope form (surveyed with sub‐meter accuracy) and the eruption age (based on ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar chronology) to predict the best‐fit value of the soil transport coefficient (‘diffusivity’) based on a nonlinear transport model. Our results indicate that the best‐fit diffusivity (K ) varies from 1 to 6 m² ka^?1 among the five cinder cones in our field area. Diffusivity (K ) values vary systematically with precipitation and hillslope aspect; specifically, K is higher on south‐facing (drier) hillslopes and decreases with mean annual precipitation. We interpret this climate dependency to reflect vegetation‐driven variations in apparent soil cohesion, which increases with root network density, and attenuation of rain splash and overland flow erosion, which increases with vegetative ground cover. To assess how vegetative root mass and ground cover vary with precipitation and aspect, we quantified the spatial distribution of NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) from ASTER satellite images and observed spatial variations that correlate with our calibrated values of K . Analysis of previously studied cinder cones in the USA can be used to extend our framework to arid domains. This endeavor suggests a humped relationship between K and precipitation with maximum diffusivity at mean annual precipitation of 400–600 mm. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A high magnitude storm and flood in a hyperarid catchment,Nahal Zin,Negev Desert,Israel

In October 1991 a high magnitude rainstorm flood, estimated return period 40 years, occurred in Nahal Zin, a 1400 km² catchment in the hyperarid Negev Desert. The meso-scale structure of the storm was a curved squall line that developed from a thunderstorm in accordance with the topography of the catchment divide, by which it was strongly affected. Tropical moisture reached the area via the subtropical jet stream, in conjunction with a lower level northward intrusion of the Red Sea trough (RST-N) into the Mediterranean Sea. Rainfall, as measured at the few and sparse gauging stations, was much too small to account for the resulting large flood. Peak flow and other hydraulic characteristics of the flood were indirectly reconstructed. The techniques of palaeoflood hydrology used were based on sedimentological evidence of fine-grained flood sediments deposited in back-flooded tributaries, as well as on other stage indicators. The HEC-2 procedure was employed to determine water surface profiles. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the event were studied through a combination of rainstorm analysis, remote sensing, hydrological and sedimentological data; they jointly explain the magnitude and timing of tributary contributions producing the integrated flood in the main channel. The flood as reconstructed reveals a three-peak hydrograph: two peaks were generated by the same storm but had different floodwave arrival times in the main channel; the third resulted from a local rainstorm which occurred on the following day and covered only one tributary. The curved structure of the storm and its dynamics in relation to catchment orientation resulted in storm move- ment in tandem with the floodwave. The synchronous contribution from all main tributaries preserved evidence of the floodwave both in stage and volume by replacing the transmission losses in the sections with thick alluvium. Other high magnitude floods on record for the large Negev Desert catchments are caused by a cold upper air incursion associated with the RST-N. Most of them occur in the autumn and are caused by storms with high-intensity rainfall. This is in stark contrast with the flooding behaviour of the semi-arid zone further north, which is linked primarily to the core of the Mediterranean winter. The complexities involved in the generation of a large desert flood, as revealed by this study, illustrate the fallacy of applying routine hydrological modelling to such events, and underline the need to study the processes involved in adequate detail. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization,node condition classification and implementation to small size databases

Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.