2.5D seismic velocity modelling in the south-eastern Romanian Carpathians Orogen and its foreland

The DACIA-PLAN (Danube and Carpathian Integrated Action on Processes in the Lithosphere and Neotectonics) deep seismic reflection survey was performed in August–September 2001, with the objective of obtaining new information on the deep structure of the external Carpathians nappe system and the architecture of the Tertiary/Quaternary basins developed within and adjacent to the Vrancea zone, including the rapidly subsiding Focsani Basin. The DACIA-PLAN profile is about 140 km long, having a roughly WNW–ESE direction, from near the southeast Transylvanian Basin, across the mountainous south-eastern Carpathians and their foreland to near the Danube River. A high resolution 2.5D velocity model of the upper crust along the seismic profile has been determined from a tomographic inversion of the DACIA-PLAN first arrival data. The results show that the data fairly accurately resolve the transition from sediment to crystalline basement beneath the Focsani Basin, where industry seismic data are available for correlation, at depths up to about 10 km. Beneath the external Carpathians nappes, apparent basement (material with velocities above 5.8 km/s) lies at depths as shallow as 3–4 km, which is less than previously surmised on the basis of geological observations. The first arrival travel-time data suggest that there is significant lateral structural heterogeneity on the apparent basement surface in this area, suggesting that the high velocity material may be involved in Carpathian thrusting.     

The Influence of Climate Warming on Soil Frost on Snow-Free Surfaces in Finland

The influence of the predicted climate warming on soil frost conditions in Finland was studied using a climate scenario based on a Hadley Centre (U.K.) global ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM2) run. HadCM2 results were dynamically downscaled to the regional level using the regional climate model at the Rossby Centre (Sweden). The future period this study focuses on is the end of the 21st century. The study was limited to ground surface conditions in which snow has been removed. The predicted air temperature rise was interpreted in terms of changes in soil frost conditions using an empirical dependence that was found between measured soil frost depths and the sum of daily mean air temperatures calculated from the beginning of the freezing period. On average the annual maximum soil frost depth will decrease in southern and central Finland from the present approx. 100–150 cm by about 50 cm. In northern Finland the change will be from depths of about 200–300 cm to about 100–200 cm depending on station. The annual maximum soil frost depth in the future would thus be about the same in northern Finland as it is in the current climate in southern Finland. In southern Finland after about 100 years the ground will seldom be frozen in December and even in January there will be no soil frost in about half of the years. In Central and northern Finland the probability of completely unfrozen ground in December–March is very small, even in the future.     

Free non-radial vibrations of the earth

Summary Earthquake shear waves with period around 12.2 min have been lately reported byM. Båth (1958), who suggests that these might be due to torsional vibrations of the whole mantle on some axis through the centre of the earth. An attempt has been made here to put forward a theory which accounts for such vibrations. The general elastokinetic equation for a heterogeneous isotropic medium is solved for a free spherical shell overlying a liquid core, and the solution is investigated for the first two modes. The frequency equation is solved for a shell and the limiting cases of a full sphere and an infinitely thin shell. Application is then made for various approximate mantle models, and periods are found which are in fair agreement with the observed. It is then shown that if the rigidity of the core is taken into consideration a closer agreement with the observed might be attained.

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Zusammenfassung Seismische Transversalwellen mit einer Periode von rund 12.2 min sind neulich vonM. Båth (1958) beobachtet worden, der vermutet, dass sie Torsionsschwingungen des ganzen Erdmantels um eine Achse durch das Erdzentrum sind. Ein Versuch wird hier gemacht eine Theorie für solche Schwingungen zu entwickeln. Die allgemeine elastokinetische Gleichung für ein heterogenes, isotropisches Medium wird für eine freie, sphärische Schale über einem flüssigen Kern gelöst, und die Lösung wird für die zwei ersten Schwingungsformen untersucht. Die Frequenzgleichung wird für eine Schale und für die Grenzfälle einer ganzen Sphäre und einer unendlich dünnen Schale gelöst. Die Lösungen werden dann auf verschiedene, approximative Mantel-Modellen angewendet, und Perioden werden gefunden, die ziemlich gute Übereinstimmung mit der beobachteten Periode zeigen. Es wird danach gezeigt, dass, falls die Righeit des Erdkerns in Betracht gezogen wird, eine noch bessere Übereinstimmung mit der beobachteten Periode erreicht wird.

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This research was supported by Eng.Herbert E. Linden of Beverly Hills, California.     

Recordings and occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents in the Finnish natural gas pipeline network

A project implemented to study the effects of space weather on the Finnish natural gas pipeline was started in August 1998. The aims of the project were (1) to derive a model for calculating geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and pipe-to-soil (P/S) voltages in the Finnish natural gas pipeline, (2) to perform measurements of GIC and P/S voltages in the pipeline and (3) to derive statistical predictions for the occurrences of GIC and P/S voltages at different locations in the pipeline network.GIC and P/S voltage were recorded at a compressor station. The GIC measurement was made with two magnetometers, one right above the pipe, and another at the Nurmijärvi Geophysical Observatory about 30 km southwest. The largest GIC since November 1998 has been 30 A. The P/S voltage recording was stopped in May 1999, but GIC is still measured.GIC statistics were derived based on the recordings of the geomagnetic field at Nurmijärvi. The geoelectric field was calculated by using the plane wave model. This field was input to the general pipeline model resulting in the distribution of currents and P/S voltages at selected points in the pipeline. As could be expected, the largest P/S voltage variations occur at the ends of the pipeline network, while the largest GIC flow in the middle parts.     

Thermoelastic stresses and strains in a gravitating earth

Summary The stress and strain fields in various earth models are studied under the assumption of an elastic mantle and the existence of thermal stresses which are proportional to the difference between the initial and present temperatures. The thermoelastic equilibrium equation for a 49-layered earth with spherical symmetry is integrated and programmed for various combinations of velocities, densities and temperatures. Results show that the strains in the upper mantle depend to a great extent on the thermal model. Central radial strain ranges from 5.2 to 7.3 per cent and the central pressure ranges between 3.1 and 3.7×10¹² dynes/cm² for all models. It is established that the thermal history of the earth could not have changedBullen's pressures by more than 0.4×10¹² dynes/cm².Contribution No. 1095, Division of Geological Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California.     

Climate change impacts on forest fire potential in boreal conditions in Finland

The aim of this work was to study the forest fire potential and frequency of forest fires under the projected climate change in Finland (N 60°–N 70°). Forest fire index, generally utilized in Finland, was used as an indicator for forest fire potential due to climatological parameters. Climatic scenarios were based on the A2 emission scenario. According to the results, the forest fire potential will have increased by the end of this century; as a result of increased evaporative demand, which will increase more than the rise in precipitation and especially in southern Finland. The annual number of forest fire alarm days is expected to increase in southern Finland to 96–160 days by the end of this century, compared to the current 60–100 days. In the north, the corresponding increase was from 30 to 36 days. The expected increase in the annual frequency of forest fires over the whole country was about 20% by the end of this century compared to the present day. The greatest increase in the frequency of fires, per 1,000 km², was in the southernmost part of the country, with six to nine fires expected annually per 1,000 km² at the end of this century, meaning a 24–29% increase compared to the present day frequencies.     

Ground penetrating radar application in a shallow marine Oxfordian limestone sequence located on the eastern flank of the Paris Basin, NE France

A Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) survey has been carried out in Upper Jurassic limestones located on the eastern flank of the Paris Basin (NE France). The potential of the investigation method is assessed for delineating geologically meaningful stratifications in the shallow subsurface. The fundamentals of the GPR technique are described. Penetration depth and vertical resolution depends on the soil conditions, the characteristics of input signal and the configuration of the transmitter–receiver assembly. In the studied carbonates the penetration level is rather good and the electromagnetic signal reaches up to 1000 nanoseconds maximum (i.e. approximately 55 m). Several depositional units are outlined on the GPR profiles. Six different lithological units are recognised with distinct GPR reflection characteristics. The profiles illustrate the internal 3D organisation of the carbonate platform and its geometry. They provide detailed insight into the nature of an Oxfordian reefal build-up. The high-resolution subsurface model is directly calibrated with geological field observations and it results in a predictive 3D depositional working model. The GPR method is a non-destructive remote sensing technique that is cost effective. The method is considered complementary to other conventional high-resolution reservoir characterisation studies. It represents a powerful investigation tool in earth science studies concerning the imaging of the structure of the shallow subsurface.     

The source of the great Assam earthquake — an interplate wedge motion

The source of the Assam earthquake of Aug. 15, 1950 is revealed from amplitude observations of surface and body waves at Pasadena, Tokyo and Bergen. Seiches' amplitudes in Norway, initial P motions throughout the world, aftershocks and landslides distribution, PP/P ratio at Tokyo, R/L ratio and directivity at Pasadena, are also used. The ensuing fault geometry and kinematics is consistent with the phenomenology of the event and the known geology of the source area. It is found that a progressive strike-slip rupture with velocity 3 km/sec took place on a fault of length 250 km and width 80 km striking 330–337° east of north and dipping 55–60° to ENE. The use of exact surface-wave theory and asymptotic body-wave theory which takes into account finiteness and absorption, rendered an average shear dislocation of 35 m. A three-dimensional theory for the excitation of seiches in lakes by the horizontal acceleration of surface waves was developed. It is confirmed that Love waves near Bergen generated seiches with peak amplitude up to 70 cm depending strongly on the width of the channel.It is believed that the earthquake was caused by a motion of the Asian plate relative to the eastern flank of the Indian plate where the NE Assam block is imparted a tendency of rotation with fracture lines being developed along its periphery.Comparison with other well-studied earthquakes shows that although the magnitude of the Assam event superseded that of all earthquakes since 1950, its potency U₀dS (700,000 m × km²) was inferior to that of Alaska 1964 (1,560,000 m × km²) and Chile 1960 (1,020,000 m × km²).     

Spatial interpolation of monthly climate data for Finland: comparing the performance of kriging and generalized additive models

The Finnish Meteorological Institute has calculated statistics for the new reference period of 1981–2010. During this project, the grid size has been reduced from 10 to 1 km, the evaluation of the interpolation has been improved, and comparisons between different methods has been performed. The climate variables of interest were monthly mean temperature and mean precipitation, for which the spatial variability was explained using auxiliary information: mean elevation, sea percentage, and lake percentage. We compared three methods for spatial prediction: kriging with external drift (KED), generalized additive models (GAM), and GAM combined with residual kriging (GK). Every interpolation file now has attached statistical key figures describing the bias and the normality of the prediction error. According to the cross-validation results, GAM was the best method for predicting mean temperatures, with only very small differences relative to the other methods. For mean precipitation, KED produced the most accurate predictions, followed by GK. In both cases, there was notable seasonal variation in the statistical skill scores. For the new reference period and future interpolations, KED was chosen as the primary method due to its robustness and accuracy.     

Bathymetry of Lake Lisan controls late Pleistocene and Holocene stream incision in response to base level fall

This paper examines the millennial-scale evolution of the longitude profile of Nahal (Wadi) Zin in the Dead Sea basin in the northern Arava valley, Israel. Nahal Zin has incised ~ 50 m into relatively soft late Pleistocene Lake Lisan sediments. Incision was forced by the regressive (> 10 km) lake level fall of a total of > 200 m of Lake Lisan from its highest stand at ~ 25 ka and exposure of the lake-floor sediments to fluvial and coastal processes. Alluvial cut terraces of the incising channel are well preserved along the 17.5 km of the lowermost reach of Nahal Zin. At its outlet into the Dead Sea basin, Nahal Zin deposited a Holocene alluvial fan at the base of a 10–80 m high escarpment in unconsolidated sediments. The escarpment is associated with the Amazyahu fault, which forms the southern structural boundary of the present Dead Sea basin. Geomorphic mapping, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, and soil stratigraphy allowed correlation of terrace remnants and reconstruction of several past longitudinal profiles of Nahal Zin and its incision history. Together with the published lake level chronology, these data provide an opportunity to examine stream incision related to base level lowering at a millennial scale. OSL ages of the terraces fit relatively well with the established lake level chronology and follow its regression and fall. For a few thousands of years the longitudinal profile response to the lake level fall was downstream lengthening onto the exposed former lake bed. Most of the incision (~ 40 m) occurred later, when the lake level reached the top of the Amazyahu fault escarpment and continued to drop. The incision was a relatively short episode at about 17 ka and cut through this escarpment almost to its base. The fast incision, its timing, and the profiles of the incising channels indicate that the escarpment was an underwater feature and was not formed after the lake retreated.This fairly simple scenario of regressive lake level fall and knickpoint exposure and incision is modeled here using a one-dimensional numerical incision model based on a linear diffusion equation. The calculated diffusion coefficient fits earlier results and data obtained from other streams in the area and confirms the upscaling of this simple model to the millennial scale.