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41.
Antony?Z.?OwinohEmail author Julian?C.?R.?Hunt Andrew?Orr Peter?Clark Rupert?Klein H.?J.?S.?Fernando Frans?T.?M.?Nieuwstadt 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,116(2):331-361
We examine the unsteady response of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) of depth h and friction velocity u * when a uniform surface heat flux is applied abruptly or decreased rapidly over a time scale t<inf>θ</inf> less than about h /(10u *). Standard Monin–Obukhov (MO) relationships are used for the perturbed eddy viscosity profile in terms of the changes to
the heat flux and mean shear. Analytical solutions for changes in temperature, mean wind and shear stress profile are obtained
for the surface layer, when there are small changes in h /|LMO| over the time scale tMO~|L MO|/(10u*) (where L MO and t MO are the length and time scales, respectively). They show that a maximum in the wind speed profile occurs at the top of the
thermal boundary layer for weak surface cooling, i.e. a wind jet, whereas there is a flattening of the profile and no marked
maximum for weak surface heating. The modelled profiles are approximately the same as those obtained from the U.K. Met Office
Unified Model when operating as a mesoscale model at 12-km horizontal resolution. The theoretical model is modified when strong
surface heating is suddenly applied, resulting in a large change in h /|L MO| (>>1), over the time scale t MO. The eddy structure is predicted to change significantly and the addition of convective turbulence increases the shear turbulence
at the ground. A low-level wind jet can form, with convective turbulence adding to the mean momentum of the flow. This was
verified by our laboratory experiment and direct numerical simulations. Additionally, it is shown that the effects of Coriolis
acceleration diminish (rather than as suggested in the literature, amplify) the formation of the wind jets in the situations
considered here. Hence, only when the surface heat flux changes over time scales greater than 1/f (where f is the Coriolis parameter) does the ABL adjust monotonically between its equilibrium states. These results are also applicable
to the ABL passing over spatially varying surface heat fluxes. 相似文献
42.
Susanne Bleisch Matt Duckham Antony Galton Patrick Laube Jarod Lyon 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(2):363-382
In many applications, the environmental context for and drivers of movement patterns are just as important as the patterns themselves. This article adapts standard data mining techniques, combined with a foundational ontology of causation, with the objective of helping domain experts identify candidate causal relationships between movement patterns and their environmental context. In addition to data about movement and its dynamic environmental context, our approach requires as input definitions of the states and events of interest. The technique outputs causal and causal-like relationships of potential interest, along with associated measures of support and confidence. As a validation of our approach, the analysis is applied to real data about fish movement in the Murray River in Australia. The results demonstrate that the technique is capable of identifying statistically significant patterns of movement indicative of causal and causal-like relationships. 相似文献
43.
Seasonal forecasts have potential value as tools for the management of risks due to inter-annual climate variability and iterative adaptation to climate change. Despite their potential, forecasts are not widely used, in part due to poor performance and lack of relevance to specific users’ decision problems, and in part due to a variety of economic and behavioural factors. In this paper a theoretical model of perceived forecast value is proposed and applied to a stylized portfolio-type decision problem with wide applicability to actual forecast users, with a view to obtaining a more complete picture of the determinants of perceived value. The effects of user wealth, risk aversion, and perceived forecast trustworthiness, and presentational parameters, such as the position of forecast parameter categories, and the size of probability categories, on perceived value is investigated. Analysis of the model provides several strong qualitative predictions of how perceived forecast value depends on these factors. These predictions may be used to generate empirical hypotheses which offer the chance of evaluating the model's assumptions, and suggest several means of improving understanding of perceived value based on qualitative features of the results. 相似文献
44.
Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Antony Millner Raphael Calel David A. Stainforth George MacKerron 《Climatic change》2013,116(2):427-436
Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge. 相似文献
45.
46.
Journal of Seismology - We describe the flexible multimethod seismic site characterization technique for obtaining shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles and derivative information, such as the... 相似文献
47.
48.
Antony R. Berger 《Geoarchaeology》2012,27(2):175-187
49.
The propagation and fission process of internal solitary waves (ISWs) with amplitudes of about 170 m are simulated in the northeast of the South China Sea (NSCS) by using the generalized Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation under continuous stratification. More attention is paid to the effects of the ebb and flood background currents on the fission process of ISWs. This kind of background current is provided by the composed results simulated in terms of monthly mean baroclinic circulation and barotropic tidal current. It is found that the obtained relation of the number of fission solitons to the water depth and stratification is roughly in accordance with the fission law derived by Djordjevic and Redekopp in 1978; however, there exists obvious difference between the effects of the ebb and flood background currents on the wave-lengths of fission solitons (defined as the distance between two neighboring peaks of ISWs). The difference in nonlinearity coefficient α between the ebb and flood background currents is a main cause for the different wave-lengths of fission solitons. 相似文献