Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

Tracing the flow of organic matter from primary producers to filter feeders in Ria Formosa lagoon, Southern Portugal

The flow of organic matter along the main navigation channel of Ria Formosa, Portugal, was assessed using determinations of suspended particulate matter (SPM), particulate organic matter (POM), and chlorophyll a (chla) concentrations in conjunction with stable isotope values of primary producers, particulate matter, and two filter feeders. SPM in the lagoon is dominated by inorganic particles comprising 80% of total weight with organic matter averaging about 20%. The algal component of the POM averaged about 5% with the remainder comprised of detritus. The δ¹³C values of primary producers ranged from ?9.1‰ in the intertidal seagrassZostera noltii to ?30.7‰ in the red seaweedBostrychia scorpioides revealing underlying differences in the mechanisms of carbon uptake. The δ¹³C value ofB. scorpioides, which develops entangled on the salt marsh speciesSpartina maritima, suggests that its main source of inorganic carbon is atmospheric CO₂. The δ¹³C values of the high marsh macrophyteSarcocornia perennis significantly increased with distance from the ocean while δ¹³C values ofZ. noltii decreased, probably because higher decomposition of organic matter at inner stations lowers the δ¹³CO₂ value in the water. The δ¹⁵N values of Ulvales, seagrasses, and marsh plants significantly increased from outer stations to inner stations. This increase may be due either to recycling of nitrogen (N) within the marsh (with loss of light N₂ or NH₄) or to inputs of isotopically heavy N from sewage. The δ¹⁵N values of particulate matter showed an opposite trend, which indicates higher microbial degradation of organic matter at the inner lagoon. The data demonstrate that the seston in the lagoon is a mixture of detritus from lagoon primary producers with a minor contribution of microalgae. The filter feeders are most likely assimilating a mixture of phytoplankton and microphytobenthos. Digestion of lagoon seston is selective. The δ¹⁵N values of both muscle and digestive gland of filter feeders showed the opposite gradient of particulate matter indicating that the depleted δ¹⁵N of SPM at inner stations was not assimilated or even ingested. Stable isotopes values did not differ between the filter-feeders—the musselMytilus galloprovincialis collected on buoys and the clamTapes decussatus collected in the sediment—suggesting a considerable mixture of benthic-pelagic organic matter throughout the water column. Assessment of the changes in isotopic decomposition of detritus as it decays is required to refine our understanding of organic matter transfers in detrital food webs.     

In-situ Formation of Light-Absorbing Organic Matter in Cloud Water

Current climate models seem to underestimate the flux of solar energy absorbed by the global troposphere. All of these models are constrained with the assumption that cloud droplets consist of pure water. Here we demonstrate in a simple laboratory experiment that aromatic hydroxy-acids which are found in continental fine aerosol can react with hydroxyl radicals under typical conditions prevalent in cloud water influenced by biomass burning. The reactions yield colored organic species which do absorb solar radiation. We also suggest that the products of such reactions may be humic-like substances whose presence in continental aerosol has been confirmed but their source mechanisms are still much sought after. We also attempt to give a first order estimate of the enhancement of water absorption at a visible wavelength under atmospheric conditions.     

Simulation of a long-lived meso-β scale convective system over the mediterranean coast of Spain. Part II: Sensitivity to external forcings

Summary The numerical simulation of a long-lived, stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) already described in a previous paper (Fernández et al., 1995) is analyzed in greater detail. The influence of various external forcings, such as sea surface temperature, local orography or terrain roughness, upon the characteristics of the system is studied. This analysis makes it possible not only to identify the most important factors, but also to deduce the importance of some other internal forcings and to propose explanations for some dynamic features of the system that were difficult to understand. Hence, the sensitivity test methodology applied seems to be a useful tool to clarify the complex dynamics of some moist convective events. In the modelled MCS, sea surface temperature and orography are identified as key factors. The results also indicate that the upstream triggering of convection provoked by an orographic blocking effect is the main cause of the development of the system, while upslope triggering plays a secondary role.With 18 Figures     

Effects of early season defoliation ofAnthyllis cytisoides(a Mediterranean browse species) on further herbivore attack

To determine if defoliation of a woody plant affects foraging by folivorous insects, we examined the infection rate (number of leaves damaged per total number of leaves sampled on marked stems) ofAnthyllis cytisoidesunder three experimental treatments: 10, 50 and 90% plant defoliation. Observations were made for three age classes, established by trunk base perimeter (equal to or lower than 11 cm, between 11 and 20 cm, larger than 20 cm). Plants respond positively to artificial defoliation by increasing total vegetative length of the stem and total inflorescence length. This response is most evident in young individuals.Response to herbivory was measured as overall infection rate and also as infection rate by different feeding guilds—chewing, mining, or sucking insects. We found that increased defoliation elicited increased resistance of leaves to insect attack. This was particularly evident in young plants. Different insect guilds respond in different ways. Attack by chewing insects declines with defoliation for all plant age classes; only sucking insects which feed on the oldest plants reduce feeding rate with plant defoliation. Finally, mining insects present the opposite trend in young and senescent plants.