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31.
Edward A. Parson Robert W. Corell Eric J. Barron Virginia Burkett Anthony Janetos Linda Joyce Thomas R. Karl Michael C. MacCracken Jerry Melillo M. Granger Morgan David S. Schimel Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42
Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 相似文献
32.
利用遥感监测和分析珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程——以东莞市为例 总被引:23,自引:3,他引:23
伴随着经济的快速增长,珠江三角洲近年来出现了迅速的城市化以及乡村城市化的过程。沿着城镇边缘和公路两旁,大片的农田被侵占来单方面地满足城市开发的需要,忽略了粮食产量减少以及环境质量恶化等问题。利用遥感可以有效地监测珠江三角洲的城市扩张过程。在遥感多时相监测的基础上通过熵的计算,可以定量地描述城市扩张的空间规律及扩散过程。 相似文献
33.
Landslides pose serious hazards in the Mercantour Massif and the French Riviera in southeastern France. The context for landslide development is a particularly favourable one, both in terms of the geomorphic and structural setting of this Alpine region, and of the climatic, hydrologic and seismic factors that trigger such failures. High mountain relief and steep slopes constitute a very favourable setting for failures affecting massive basement rocks and a very heterogeneous sedimentary cover whose resistance has been weakened by weathering, tectonic stresses, and cambering due to gravity. Among trigger factors, the important appears to be the precipitation regime. Rainfalls are commonly concentrated into short high-intensity downpours or into bursts of sustained falls over periods of several days, leading to soil saturation and lubrication of potential failure planes. Snowmelt also contributes to these lubrication processes. Earthquakes affecting this region are also a potentially important landslide trigger. However, while a lot of work has been done on the relationship between extreme climatic events and landslide activity, much less is known of the trigger effects of earthquakes.Both the background factors that promote landslide development and the factors that trigger such failures are discussed within a time frame of landslide development. Progressive changes in soil strength due to weathering, rock cambering and shattering processes lead to long-term reduction in resistance. Superimposed on these progressive changes are episodic triggerings related to rainfall and snowmelt episodes or earthquakes. Landslides may occur as shallow, low-volume “one-time” events or may be part of a progressive long-term failure. The former generally affect unconsolidated or clay-rich sedimentary rocks, especially on the coastal hillslopes of the French Riviera. A notable exception of a major, voluminous “one-time” event was the submarine landslide of the Var Delta in 1979. This landslide, like numerous other smaller subaerial landslides onland, was largely a result of human activities. This landslide occurred following extensive modification of the Var Delta and, notably, reclamation of the steep, fine-grained delta front. Deforestation, quarrying, urbanisation and road network developments are various ways in which human activity has destabilized the coastal hillslopes, favouring the development of numerous shallow landslides following each episode of heavy rainfall.Progressive landslides on the upper hillslopes of the Mercantour Massif have developed over long time spans (order of 101 to 105 yrs) and have involved more complex interactions between lithological controls, slope characteristics and trigger factors. The Collelongue and Bois de Malbosc landslides have evolved into now stable failures buttressed by resistant migmatitic diorites or amphibolites. The more voluminous and well monitored Clapière landslide is a relatively simple rotational landslide of the toe-failure type. This active landslide poses a serious to inhabitants and infrastructure in the Tinée Valley. The importance of continued field monitoring, modelling and mapping of landslides and their hazards is emphasised. 相似文献
34.
Responses of interrill runoff and erosion rates to vegetation change in southern Arizona 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Vegetation change, fi-om grassland to shrubland, has occurred over much of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts during the past century. The effect of this vegetation change on interrill runoff and erosion was examined by conducting rainfall-simulation experiments on large runoff plots on contemporary grassland and shrubland hillslopes. These experiments show that, compared to the grassland, the interrill portions of shrubland hillslopes (1) have higher runoff rates, (2) experience equilibrium runoff conditions much more frequently, (3) exhibit higher overland flow velocities, and (4) are subject to greater rates of erosion. The environmental change that has led to the vegetation change has been relatively minor, but its geomorphic impact has been substantial. 相似文献
35.
36.
Digital elevation models and topographic pro?les of a beach with intertidal bar and trough (ridge‐and‐runnel) morphology in Merlimont, northern France, were analysed in order to assess patterns of cross‐shore and longshore intertidal bar mobility. The beach exhibited a pronounced dual bar–trough system that showed cross‐shore stationarity. The bars and troughs were, however, characterized by signi?cant longshore advection of sand under the in?uence of suspension by waves and transport by strong tide‐ and wind‐driven longshore currents. Pro?le changes were due in part to the longshore migration of medium‐sized bedforms. The potential for cross‐shore bar migration appears to be mitigated by the large size of the two bars relative to incident wave energy, which is modulated by high vertical tidal excursion rates on this beach due to the large tidal range (mean spring tidal range = 8·3 m). Cross‐shore bar migration is also probably hindered by the well‐entrenched troughs which are maintained by channelled high‐energy intertidal ?ows generated by swash bores and by tidal discharge and drainage. The longshore migration of intertidal bars affecting Merlimont beach is embedded in a regional coastal sand transport pathway involving tidal and wind‐forced northward residual ?ows affecting the rectilinear northern French coast in the eastern English Channel. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
37.
J. Anthony Abbott 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(2):198-212
In‐field conservation of locally domesticated crop varieties ameliorates agrobiodiversity losses, but the interaction among nationally regulated socioeconomic factors at the local scale tends to discourage this. Analyses of household surveys conducted in Ecuador demonstrate that state and nongovernmental institutions interact to discourage cultivation of locally domesticated varieties of beans (Phaseolus spp.). Land privatization, agricultural extension, and credit programs favor market production of introduced modern bean varieties, and locally domesticated varieties are noted for favorable nutrition, culinary, and agroecological qualities. Resolving disconnections between the market and social values for landrace beans may provide agrobiodiversity conservation opportunities. 相似文献
38.
I. Panea R. Stephenson C. Knapp V. Mocanu G. Drijkoningen L. Matenco J. Knapp K. Prodehl 《Tectonophysics》2005,410(1-4):293-309
The DACIA PLAN (Danube and Carpathian Integrated Action on Process in the Lithosphere and Neotectonics) deep seismic sounding survey was performed in August–September 2001 in south-eastern Romania, at the same time as the regional deep refraction seismic survey VRANCEA 2001. The main goal of the experiment was to obtain new information on the deep structure of the external Carpathians nappes and the architecture of Tertiary/Quaternary basins developed within and adjacent to the seismically-active Vrancea zone, including the Focsani Basin. The seismic reflection line had a WNW–ESE orientation, running from internal East Carpathians units, across the mountainous south-eastern Carpathians, and the foreland Focsani Basin towards the Danube Delta. There were 131 shot points along the profile, with about 1 km spacing, and data were recorded with stand-alone RefTek-125s (also known as “Texans”), supplied by the University Texas at El Paso and the PASSCAL Institute. The entire line was recorded in three deployments, using about 340 receivers in the first deployment and 640 receivers in each of the other two deployments. The resulting deep seismic reflection stacks, processed to 20 s along the entire profile and to 10 s in the eastern Focsani Basin, are presented here. The regional architecture of the latter, interpreted in the context of abundant independent constraint from exploration seismic and subsurface data, is well imaged. Image quality within and beneath the thrust belt is of much poorer quality. Nevertheless, there is good evidence to suggest that a thick (10 km) sedimentary basin having the structure of a graben and of indeterminate age underlies the westernmost part of the Focsani Basin, in the depth range 10–25 km. Most of the crustal depth seismicity observed in the Vrancea zone (as opposed to the more intense upper mantle seismicity) appears to be associated with this sedimentary basin. The sedimentary successions within this basin and other horizons visible further to the west, beneath the Carpathian nappes, suggest that the geometry of the Neogene and recent uplift observed in the Vrancea zone, likely coupled with contemporaneous rapid subsidence in the foreland, is detached from deeper levels of the crust at about 10 km depth. The Moho lies at a depth of about 40 km along the profile, its poor expression in the reflection stack being strengthened by independent estimates from the refraction data. Given the apparent thickness of the (meta)sedimentary supracrustal units, the crystalline crust beneath this area is quite thin (< 20 km) supporting the hypothesis that there may have been delamination of (lower) continental crust in this area involved in the evolution of the seismic Vrancea zone. 相似文献
39.
Ryan D. Stewart Aditi S. Bhaskar Anthony J. Parolari Dustin L. Herrmann Jinshi Jian Laura A. Schifman William D. Shuster 《水文研究》2019,33(26):3349-3363
Uncontrolled overland flow drives flooding, erosion, and contaminant transport, with the severity of these outcomes often amplified in urban areas. In pervious media such as urban soils, overland flow is initiated via either infiltration‐excess (where precipitation rate exceeds infiltration capacity) or saturation‐excess (when precipitation volume exceeds soil profile storage) mechanisms. These processes call for different management strategies, making it important for municipalities to discern between them. In this study, we derived a generalized one‐dimensional model that distinguishes between infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) and saturation‐excess overland flow (SEOF) using Green–Ampt infiltration concepts. Next, we applied this model to estimate overland flow generation from pervious areas in 11 U.S. cities. We used rainfall forcing that represented low‐ and high‐intensity events and compared responses among measured urban versus predevelopment reference soil hydraulic properties. The derivation showed that the propensity for IEOF versus SEOF is related to the equivalence between two nondimensional ratios: (a) precipitation rate to depth‐weighted hydraulic conductivity and (b) depth of soil profile restrictive layer to soil capillary potential. Across all cities, reference soil profiles were associated with greater IEOF for the high‐intensity set of storms, and urbanized soil profiles tended towards production of SEOF during the lower intensity set of storms. Urban soils produced more cumulative overland flow as a fraction of cumulative precipitation than did reference soils, particularly under conditions associated with SEOF. These results will assist cities in identifying the type and extent of interventions needed to manage storm water produced from pervious areas. 相似文献
40.
André C. Colonese Giovanni Zanchetta Elisabeth Dotsika Russell N. Drysdale Anthony E. Fallick Renata Grifoni Cremonesi Giuseppe Manganelli 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(8):1347-1359
This paper compares stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ18O (δ18Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ13C (δ13Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ18Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of 18O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ18Os is lost. This suggests that δ18Os and δ13Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ18Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ13Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly 13C‐enriched to a 13C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ13Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献