Freshwater transports in HadCM3

The hydrological cycle can influence climate through a great variety of processes. A good representation of the hydrological cycle in climate models is therefore crucial. Attempts to analyse the global hydrological cycle are hampered by a deficiency of suitable observations, particularly over the oceans. Fully coupled general circulation models are potentially powerful tools in interpreting the limited observational data in the context of large-scale freshwater exchanges. We have looked at large-scale aspects of the global freshwater budget in a simulation, of over 1000 years, by the Hadley Centre coupled climate model (HadCM3). Many aspects of the global hydrological cycle are well represented, but the model hydrological cycle appears to be too strong, with overly large precipitation and evaporation components in comparison with the observational datasets we have used. We show that the ocean basin-scale meridional transports of freshwater come into near balance with the surface freshwater fluxes on a time scale of about 400 years, with the major change being a relative increase of freshwater transport from the Southern Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean. Comparison with observations, supported by sensitivity tests, suggests that the major cause of a drift to more saline condition in the model Atlantic is an overestimate of evaporation, although other freshwater budget components may also play a role. The increase in ocean freshwater transport into the Atlantic during the simulation, primarily coming from the overturning circulation component, which changes from divergent to convergent, acts to balance this freshwater budget deficit. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in HadCM3 may be affected by these freshwater transport changes and this question is examined in the context of an existing conceptual model.     

Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Population structure and reproductive characteristics of the gulf pipefish,Syngnathus scovelli, in Mobile Bay, Alabama

The gulf pipefish,Syngnathus scovelli, is the dominant syngnathid found in coastal regions of the Gulf of Mexico and is the only species in this region known to occur in both freshwater and saltwater habitats. Relatively little is known about the population and reproductive cycles ofS. scovelli, particularly for those found in low salinity environments. The focus of the current study was to collect population structure and reproductive data forS. scovelli from a low salinity habitat, Meaher Park, located at the mouth of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Sampling was conducted twice a month from January 2003 to January 2004. Environmental parameters, as well as population and reproductive parameters, were collected. Water temperature was the primary abiotic factor associated with both the appearance ofS. scovelli and their breeding cycle. Based on gonadosomatic (GSI) and brood pouch somatic indices (BPSI), females and males were reproductively active throughout the summer. Peaks in male GSI and BPSI were consistent with the subsequent appearance of a large number of juveniles in early fall. These event coincided with the higher temperatures seen during late summer and early fall. Sex ratios (male : female 1 : 1.64) and operational sex ratios (1 : 4.09) indicated that this was a female biased population. Although there was no difference in the average size of males and females in this population, the largest individuals collected were female. The female-biased sex ratio supports previous genetic analyses suggesting thatS. scovelli exhibits true sex-role reversal and that operational sex ratios are a reliable indicator of the intensity of mating competition and sex roles.     

Economic Hotspots: Visualizing Vulnerability to Flooding

We simulate a large-scale flooding in the province of South-Holland in the economic centre of the Netherlands. In traditional research, damage due to flooding is computed with a unit loss method coupling land use information to depth-damage functions. Normally only direct costs are incorporated as an estimate of damage to infrastructure, property and business disruption. We extend this damage concept with the indirect economic effects on the rest of the regional and national economy on basis of a bi-regional input output table.We broaden this damage estimation to the concept of vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a function of dependence, redundancy and susceptibility. Susceptibility is the probability and extent of flooding. Dependency is the degree to which an activity relates to other economic activities in the rest of the country. Input–output multipliers form representations of this dependency. Redundancy is the ability of an economic activity to respond to a disaster by deferring, using substitutes or relocating. We measure redundancy as the degree of centrality of an economic activity in a network. The more central an activity is, the less it encounters possibilities to transfer production and the more vulnerable it is for flooding. Vulnerability of economic activities is then visualized in a GIS. Kernel density estimation is applied to generalize point information on inundated firms to sectoral information in space. We apply spatial interpolation techniques for the whole of the province of South-Holland. Combining information of sectoral data on dependency and redundancy, we are able to create maps of economic hotspots. Our simulation of a flood in the centre of Holland reveals the vulnerability of a densely populated delta.     

Trace sulfate in mid-Proterozoic carbonates and the sulfur isotope record of biospheric evolution

Concentrations of oceanic and atmospheric oxygen have varied over geologic time as a function of sulfur and carbon cycling at or near the Earth’s surface. This balance is expressed in the sulfur isotope composition of seawater sulfate. Given the near absence of gypsum in pre-Phanerozoic sediments, trace amounts of carbonate-associated sulfate (CAS) within limestones or dolostones provide the best available constraints on the isotopic composition of sulfate in Precambrian seawater. Although absolute CAS concentrations, which range from those below detection to ∼120 ppm sulfate in this study, may be compromised by diagenesis, the sulfur isotope compositions can be buffered sufficiently to retain primary values.Stratigraphically controlled δ³⁴S measurements for CAS from three mid-Proterozoic carbonate successions (∼1.2 Ga Mescal Limestone, Apache Group, Arizona, USA; ∼1.45-1.47 Ga Helena and Newland formations, Belt Supergroup, Montana, USA; and ∼1.65 Ga Paradise Creek Formation, McNamara Group, NW Queensland, Australia) show large isotopic variability (+9.1‰ to +18.9‰, −1.1‰ to +27.3‰, and +14.1‰ to +37.3‰, respectively) over stratigraphic intervals of ∼50 to 450 m. This rapid variability, ranging from scattered to highly systematic, and overall low CAS abundances can be linked to sulfate concentrations in the mid-Proterozoic ocean that were substantially lower than those of the Phanerozoic but higher than values inferred for the Archean. Results from the Belt Supergroup specifically corroborate previous arguments for seawater contributions to the basin. Limited sulfate availability that tracks the oxygenation history of the early atmosphere is also consistent with the possibility of extensive deep-ocean sulfate reduction, the scarcity of bedded gypsum, and the stratigraphic δ³⁴S trends and ³⁴S enrichments commonly observed for iron sulfides of mid-Proterozoic age.     

Urban transformation of river landscapes in a global context

Over the past 50 years considerable progress has been made in understanding the impacts of urban development on river processes and forms. Such advances have occurred as urban population growth has accelerated around the world. Using a compilation of research results from more than 100 studies conducted in a range of areas (58 addressing morphological change), this paper describes how urbanization has transformed river landscapes across Earth’s surface, emphasizing the distribution of impacts in a global comparative context. Urban development induces an initial phase of sediment mobilization, characterized by increased sediment production (on the order of 2–10 times) and deposition within channels, followed by eventual decline that couples with erosion from increased runoff to enlarge channels. Data from humid and temperate environments around the world indicate that channels generally enlarge to 2–3 times and as much as 15 times the original size. Although research has emphasized temperate environments, recent studies of tropical areas indicate a tendency for channel reduction resulting from strong sediment erosion and deposition responses because of intense precipitation and highly weathered soils. Embryonic research in arid environments further suggests variable river responses to urbanization that are characterized by rapid morphological change over short distances. Regardless of location, the persistence of the sediment production phase varies from months to several years, whereas several decades are likely needed for enlarging channels to stabilize and potentially reach a new equilibrium. Urbanizing streams pose particular challenges for management given an inherent changing nature. Successful management requires a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial variations in adjustment processes.