Charred forests accelerate snow albedo decay: parameterizing the post‐fire radiative forcing on snow for three years following fire

As large, high‐severity forest fires increase and snowpacks become more vulnerable to climate change across the western USA, it is important to understand post‐fire disturbance impacts on snow hydrology. Here, we examine, quantify, parameterize, model, and assess the post‐fire radiative forcing effects on snow to improve hydrologic modelling of snow‐dominated watersheds having experienced severe forest fires. Following a 2011 high‐severity forest fire in the Oregon Cascades, we measured snow albedo, monitored snow, and micrometeorological conditions, sampled snow surface debris, and modelled snowpack energy and mass balance in adjacent burned forest (BF) and unburned forest sites. For three winters following the fire, charred debris in the BF reduced snow albedo, accelerated snow albedo decay, and increased snowmelt rates thereby advancing the date of snow disappearance compared with the unburned forest. We demonstrate a new parameterization of post‐fire snow albedo as a function of days‐since‐snowfall and net snowpack energy balance using an empirically based exponential decay function. Incorporating our new post‐fire snow albedo decay parameterization in a spatially distributed energy and mass balance snow model, we show significantly improved predictions of snow cover duration and spatial variability of snow water equivalent across the BF, particularly during the late snowmelt period. Field measurements, snow model results, and remote sensing data demonstrate that charred forests increase the radiative forcing to snow and advance the timing of snow disappearance for several years following fire. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of riparian land use on transport hydraulics in agricultural headwater streams located in northeast Ohio,USA

This study examined if riparian land use (forested vs agricultural) affects hydraulic transport in headwater streams located in an agriculturally fragmented watershed. We identified paired 50‐m reaches (one reach in agricultural land use and the other in forested land use) along three headwater streams in the Upper Sugar Creek Watershed in northeast Ohio, USA (40° 51′42″N, 81° 50′29″W). Using breakthrough curves obtained by Rhodamine WT slug injections and the one‐dimensional transport with inflow and storage model (OTIS), hydraulic transport parameters were obtained for each reach on six different occasions (n = 36). Relative transient storage (A_S:A) was similar between both reach types (As: A = 0·3 ± 0·1 for both agricultural and forested reaches). Comparing values of F_med²⁰⁰ to those in the literature indicates that the effect of transient storage was moderately high in the study streams in the Upper Sugar Creek Watershed. Examining travel times revealed that overall residence time (HRT) and residence time in transient storage (T_STO) were both longer in forested reaches (forested HRT = 19·1 ± 11·5 min and T_STO = 4·0 ± 3·8 min; agricultural HRT = 9·3 ± 5·3 min and T_STO = 1·7 ± 1·4 min). We concluded that the effect of transient storage on solute transport was similar between the forested and agricultural reaches but the forested reaches had a greater potential to retain solutes as a result of longer travel times. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.     

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.     

Strain-induced magma degassing: insights from simple-shear experiments on bubble bearing melts

Experiments have been performed to determine the effect of deformation on degassing of bubble-bearing melts. Cylindrical specimens of phonolitic composition, initial water content of 1.5 wt.% and 2 vol.% bubbles, have been deformed in simple-shear (torsional configuration) in an internally heated Paterson-type pressure vessel at temperatures of 798–848 K, 100–180 MPa confining pressure and different final strains. Micro-structural analyses of the samples before and after deformation have been performed in two and three dimensions using optical microscopy, a nanotomography machine and synchrotron tomography. The water content of the glasses before and after deformation has been measured using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). In samples strained up to a total of γ ∼ 2 the bubbles record accurately the total strain, whereas at higher strains (γ ∼ 10) the bubbles become very flattened and elongate in the direction of shear. The residual water content of the glasses remains constant up to a strain of γ ∼ 2 and then decreases to about 0.2 wt.% at γ ∼ 10. Results show that strain enhances bubble coalescence and degassing even at low bubble volume-fractions. Noticeably, deformation produced a strongly water under-saturated melt. This suggests that degassing may occur at great depths in the volcanic conduit and may force the magma to become super-cooled early during ascent to the Earth’s surface potentially contributing to the genesis of obsidian.