Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change

Considerable progress has been made in integrating carbon, nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics into global-scale physical climate models. Scientists are exploring ways to extend the resolution of the biosphere within these Earth system models (ESMs) to include impacts on global distribution and abundance of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. This paper compares different methods for modeling fish and shellfish responses to climate change on global and regional scales. Several different modeling approaches are considered including: direct applications of ESM’s, use of ESM output for estimation of shifts in bioclimatic windows, using ESM outputs to force single- and multi-species stock projection models, and using ESM and physical climate model outputs to force regional bio-physical models of varying complexity and mechanistic resolution. We evaluate the utility of each of these modeling approaches in addressing nine key questions relevant to climate change impacts on living marine resources. No single modeling approach was capable of fully addressing each question. A blend of highly mechanistic and less computationally intensive methods is recommended to gain mechanistic insights and to identify model uncertainties.     

The 3:1 mean motion resonance between Miranda and the inner Uranian satellites,Cressida and Desdemona

We build a simple dissipative analytical model considering an averaged restricted 3-body problem taking into account the effect of the oblateness of a planet on a small satellite and on its perturber. We apply this model to the inner Uranian system and we follow the dynamical evolution of the satellites Cressida or Desdemona, these latter being close to a 3:1 commensurability with the large satellite Miranda. Our analysis shows that the positions of the two inner satellites, on both sides of the exact resonance, are temporary, Cressida having already crossed the resonance, and Desdemona approaching the commensurability to jump over later on.     

X-ray spectro-imagery of supernova remnants

Supernovae and their remnants play an essential role in the Interstellar Medium as one of the main sources of mechanical energy and heavy element production and as cosmic-ray accelerators. X-ray spectro-imagery is a key approach to look at these issues, as the collision of high velocity ejecta with the ambient medium generates high temperatures of the order of ten million degrees. I present recent results from the XMM-Newton and Chandra X-ray satellites on the elemental composition of young supernova remnants, on the spatial distribution of these synthesized elements and on the constraints obtained on the efficiency of particle acceleration at the shocks. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A search for young Galactic supernova remnants

A sample of eight small-diameter radio sources has been selected from the Molonglo Galactic Plane Survey (MGPS) as candidates for young Galactic supernova remnants. The sources have been identified in the IRAS and Midcourse Space Experiment infrared data bases and imaged in the H107α radio recombination line (RRL) using the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). Seven of the sources display high ratios of infrared-to-radio-continuum flux density and/or detectable RRLs and are almost certainly H ii regions. One source (G282.8−1.2) is identified as a possible new young Galactic supernova remnant, based on its relatively weak infrared emission, steep radio spectrum, and possible X-ray emission. The adopted method for distinguishing thermal and non-thermal Galactic radio sources seems promising and could be fruitfully applied to more than 100 small-diameter sources listed in the MGPS.     

High‐resolution record of environmental changes and tephrochronological markers of the Last Glacial–Holocene transition at Lake Lautrey (Jura,France)

This paper presents the results of a multiproxy investigation including volume magnetic susceptibility (κ), mineral and pollen analyses of Late Glacial sediments from Lake Lautrey (Jura, France). Small‐scale lithological variations have been identified with high stratigraphic resolution in order to establish lithostratigraphic correlations between cores. κ measurements, combined with mineralogical analyses, provide information on past sedimentary processes. This combined approach reflects major changes in terrestrial habitats and soil processes which may relate to the climatic events characterising the Late Glacial climatic warming and cooling phases. During warm intervals, the record indicates increased lake productivity via carbonate precipitation and decreased input of detrital material. In contrast, cooler intervals show reduced lake productivity, catchment area instability and increased detrital inputs. Several short interruptions in reforestation and in soil stabilisation can be identified and linked with abrupt colder events occurring through the Bølling. A general trend of warming is recorded from the coldest part of the Younger Dryas. Three tephra layers were also detected. The mineral composition analyses show that the upper tephra layer corresponds to the Laacher See eruption (Eifel, Germany) while the lower ones may relate to the volcanic activity of the Chaîne des Puys (Massif Central, France) around 13 000 cal. yr BP. These two events, recognised for the first time outside the Massif Central region, may provide additional chronostratigraphic markers for the Late Glacial sedimentary records of the Jura mountains and northern Alps. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A mechanism of formation for the Kirkwood gaps

In this paper an analytical model describing the effect of a displacement of the Jovian resonances in the asteroid belt is analyzed. It is found that small displacement can transform a truncated uniform density distribution of asteroids into a gap. As a possible explanation for the displacement, the effect of the removal of an accretion disk in the early stage of the solar system is investigated. It is found that removal of a disk containing a few percent of the solar mass between the orbit of the asteroids and the orbit of Jupiter is sufficient to account for the observed Hecuba gap.     

Near-infrared spectra of the leading and trailing hemispheres of Enceladus

We present individual spectra 0.8-2.5 μm of the leading and trailing hemispheres of Enceladus obtained with the CorMASS spectrograph on the 1.8 m Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope (VATT) at the Mount Graham International Observatory. While the absorption bands of water ice dominate the spectrum of both hemispheres, most of these bands are stronger on the leading hemisphere than the trailing hemisphere. In addition, longward of 1 μm, the continuum slope is greater on the leading hemisphere than the trailing hemisphere. These differences could be produced by the presence of particles on the trailing side that are smaller and/or microstructurally more complex than those on the leading side, consistent with the preferential erosion or structural degradation of regolith particle grains on the trailing side by magnetospheric sweeping. We also explore compositional differences between the two hemispheres by applying Hapke spectrophotometric mixture models to the spectra whose components include water ice and ammonia hydrate (1% NH₃⋅H₂O). We find that spectral models which include as much as 25% by weight ammonia hydrate intimately mixed with water ice and covering 80% of the illuminated area of the satellite fit the observed spectrum of both the leading and trailing hemispheres. Areal (checkerboard) mixing models of ammonia hydrate and water ice fit the leading hemisphere with 15% of the surface comprised of ammonia hydrate and the trailing hemisphere with 10% ammonia hydrate. Therefore, while these spectral data do not contain an unambiguous detection of ammonia hydrate on Enceladus, our spectral models do not preclude the presence of a modest amount of 1% NH₃⋅H₂O on both hemispheres. We examine spectral differences and similarities between both hemispheres and the tenuous E ring within which Enceladus orbits. The spectral resolution (R=λ/Δλ) of these CorMASS data (R∼300) is comparable to but nevertheless higher than that of the Visual-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) (R=225) onboard the Cassini spacecraft.     

Existence of periodic orbits of the second kind in the elliptic restricted problem of three bodies

Hale's method is used to show the existence of symmetric periodic orbits of the second kind for the particular case of the elliptic restricted problem of three bodies. In this treatment we also obtain a new proof of the existence of periodic orbits of the first and second kinds in the circular restricted problem.