The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region

The low risk awareness of the residents living in flood-prone areas is usually considered among the main causes of their low preparedness, which in turns generates inadequate response to natural disasters. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by reporting on the results of a sociological research in four communities exposed to flood risk in the Eastern Italian Alps. The research design included semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key local stakeholders and a standardized questionnaire submitted to 400 residents. Results revealed that residents felt both slightly worried about flood risk and slightly prepared to face an event. Considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. There was also a clear discrepancy between the actual adoption of household preparatory measures and the willingness to take self-protection actions. Overall, the risk awareness was significantly higher among those residents who had been personally affected by a flood in the past, were living in isolated (vs. urban) communities, in the most risky areas or had a lower level of trust in local authorities. The improvement of residents?? knowledge about their environment and the residual risk seemed to be crucial to increase risk awareness, and the same was true for the strengthening of local support networks to foster preparedness. The link between risk awareness and preparedness was not at all straightforward. Results revealed instead the complexity of residents?? perspectives, attitudes, behaviours and decisions about risk-related issues.     

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.     

Fragmentation during Rock Falls: Two Italian Case Studies of Hard and Soft Rocks

In recent years, rock fall phenomena in Italy have received considerable attention for risk mitigation through in situ observations and experimental data. This paper reports the study conducted at Camaldoli Hill, in the urban area of Naples, and at Monte Pellegrino, Palermo, Italy. The rocks involved are volcanic Neapolitan yellow tuff (NYT) in the former area and dolomitic limestone in the latter. Both rocks, even though with different strength characteristics, have shown a significant tendency towards rock fragmentation during run out. This behavior was first investigated by comparing the volumes of removable blocks on the cliff faces (V ₀) and fallen blocks on the slopes (V _f). It was assumed that the ratio V _f/V ₀ decreases with the distance (x _f) from the detachment area by an empirical law, which depends on a coefficient α, correlated with the geotechnical properties of the materials involved in the rock fall. Finally, this law was validated by observation of well-documented natural rock falls (Palermo) and by in situ full-scale tests (Naples). From the engineering perspective, consideration of fragmentation processes in rock fall modeling provides a means for designing low-cost mitigation measures.     

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Studies on some properties of coronal mass ejections based on angular width

The paper investigates the effects of thermal conductivity and non-uniform magnetic field on the gravitational instability of a non-uniformly rotating infinitely extending axisymmetric cylinder in a homogeneous heat conducting medium. The non-uniform rotation and magnetic field are supposed to act along θ and z directions of the cylinder. It is found that the gravitational instability of this general problem is determined by the same criterion as obtained by Dhiman and Dadwal (Astrophys. Space Sci. 325(2):195–200, 2010) for the self-gravitating isothermal medium in the presence of non-uniform rotation and magnetic field with the only difference that adiabatic sound velocity is now replaced by the isothermal sound velocity. It is found that the thermal conductivity has stabilizing effect on the onset of gravitational instability. Further, the stabilizing/destabilizing effect of the non-uniform magnetic field on the gravitational instability of heat conducting medium has been discussed and is illustrated by considering some special forms of the basic magnetic fields.     

On the Centre Manifold of Collinear Points in the Planar Three-Body Problem

We study the existence of invariant tori in a neighbourhood of the collinear equilibrium points of the planar three-body problem. To this end some properties of the normal form of the Hamiltonian reduced to the 4D central manifold are proved. Using this normal form, we show that the nondegeneracy conditions of KAM theorem are satisfied for all positive masses, including the 2:1 resonance case. The evaluation of the conditions is done numerically.     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

The influence of hydrodynamic boundary conditions on characteristics,migration, and associated sand transport of sand dunes in a tidal environment

Large parts of the tidal estuary of river Elbe (Germany) are characterized by regular patterns of sand dunes. They evolve due to complex sand transport mechanisms and show multi-faceted migration patterns, which are influenced by hydrodynamic boundary conditions such as runoff and tidal forces. This study aims at increasing the understanding of the way hydrodynamic boundary conditions influence dune behavior. This is the basis of an effective sediment management as well as an important requirement for planning offshore structures. From a unique data set of up to six annual bathymetrical multibeam soundings between 1995 and 2010, bedform characteristics and migration rates were processed and analyzed with a set of automated methods. The influence of river runoff, water levels, current velocities, tidal range, and river depth on characteristics and migration were tested statistically. The results show that migration is mainly dominated by the incoming flood tide while rates and directions depend on the amount of runoff originating from the inland catchment.     

Integration error over very long time spans

The main limit to the time span of a numerical integration of the planetary orbits is no longer set by the availability of computer resources, but rather by the accumulation of the integration error. By the latter we mean the difference between the computed orbit and the dynamical behaviour of the real physical system, whatever the causes. The analysis of these causes requires an interdisciplinary effort: there are physical model and parameters errors, algorithm and discretisation errors, rounding off errors and reliability problems in the computer hardware and system software, as well as instabilities in the dynamical system. We list all the sources of integration error we are aware of and discuss their relevance in determining the present limit to the time span of a meaningful integration of the orbit of the planets. At present this limit is of the order of 10⁸ years for the outer planets. We discuss in more detail the truncation error of multistep algorithms (when applied to eccentric orbits), the coefficient error, the method of Encke and the associated coordinate change error, the procedures used to test the numerical integration software and their limitations. Many problems remain open, including the one of a realistic statistical model of the rounding off error; at present, the latter can only be described by a semiempirical model based upon the simpleN ² formula (N=number of steps, =machine accuracy), with an unknown numerical coefficient which is determined only a posteriori.