Evidence for short-lived oscillations in the biological records from the sediments of Lago Albano (Central Italy) spanning the period ca. 28 to 17 k yr BP

We report the results of analyses of pigments (derived from algae and photosynthetic bacteria), diatoms and invertebrate fossil remains (ostracods, cladocerans, chironomids) in two late Pleistocene sediment cores from Lago Albano, a crater lake in Central Italy. The record contains evidence for oscillations in lake biota throughout the period ca. 28 to 17 k yr BP. The earliest of these are contained in the basal 3.5 m of light olive-gray and yellowish-gray spotted muds sampled in core PALB 94-1E from 70 m water depth. The later oscillations are best represented in the more extended sediment sequence recovered from a second core site, PALB 94-6B, in 30 m water depth. The sediments at site 1E, containing the earlier oscillations (ca. 28-24 k yr BP), predate any sedimentation at the shallower site, from which we infer an initially low lake level rising to permit sediment accumulation at site 6B from ca. 24 k yr onwards. At site 6B, massive silts rich in moss remains are interbedded with laminated silts and carbonates. These sediments span the period ca. 24 to 17 k yr and are interpreted as representing, respectively, times of shallow water alternating with higher lake stands, when the lake was stratified and bottom water was stagnant. A range of mutually independent chronological constraints on the frequency and duration of the oscillations recorded in the lake biota indicate that they were aperiodic and occurred on millennial to century timescales. We interpret them as responses to climate forcing through its impact on lake levels and changing aquatic productivity. The time span they occupy, their frequency and their duration suggest that at least some of these changes may parallel both the Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores and the contemporary oscillations in North Atlantic circulation documented in marine sediment cores.     

Radial periodic perturbations of the Kepler problem

We consider radial periodic perturbations of a central force field and prove the existence of rotating periodic solutions, whose orbits are nearly circular. The proof is mainly based on the Implicit Function Theorem, and it permits to handle some small perturbations involving the velocity, as well. Our results apply, in particular, to the classical Kepler problem.     

Eutrophication and heavy metal pollution in the Flensburg Fjord: A reassessment after 30 years

A study of surface sediment organic matter and heavy metal content (e.g. Cu, Zn, Pb and Sn) was carried out in 2006 to assess changes in eutrophication and pollution in the periodically anoxic Flensburg Fjord since 1972. Low hydrodynamic activity together with sewage discharges and high primary production in the inner fjord promote the enrichment of present day surface sediments in organic matter and metals in contrast to the outer fjord. However, heavy metal contents in the fjord are typical for the western Baltic Sea, although they are higher than in the preindustrial period.Although the anthropogenic nutrient load has substantially decreased since the 1970s, sediments from the inner fjord contain more organic material in 2006 than in 1972 resulting from still high levels of primary production supported by internal nutrient loading. Of the heavy metals measured, a decrease in Pb content since the 1970s is distinct, which is explained by the banning on gasoline lead. Taken together, these results suggest that the amelioration of environmental conditions needs time but is indeed related to reduced anthropogenic inputs.     

Global damage indexes for the seismic performance assessement of RC structures

When performing the seismic risk assessment of new or existing buildings, the definition of compact indexes able to measure the damaging and safety level of structures is essential, also in view of the economic considerations on buildings rehabilitation. This paper proposes two series of indexes, named, respectively, Global Damage Indexes (GDIs), which are representative of the overall structure performance, and Section Damage Indexes (SDIs), which assess the conditions of reinforced concrete (RC) beam‐column sections. Such indexes are evaluated by means of an efficient numerical model able to perform nonlinear analyses of the RC frame, based on the continuum damage mechanics theory and fiber approach. An improvement of a two‐parameter damage model for concrete, developed by some of the authors, which guarantees a better correlation between the Local Damage Indexes (LDIs) and the material's mechanical characteristics, is also presented. For the reinforcement, a specific LDI, named ‘steel damage index’, which takes into account the plastic strain development and the bar buckling effect, is proposed. The numerical model has been employed to simulate several experimental tests, in order to verify the accuracy of the proposed approach in predicting the RC member's behavior. Nonlinear static and dynamic analyses of two RC frames are carried out. The robustness of the method, as well as the effectiveness of the GDIs in assessing the structural conditions, are demonstrated here. Finally, comparisons between the evolution of GDIs and the achievement of the performance levels as proposed in FEMA 356 are reported. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A preliminary investigation of boundary layer effects on daytime atmospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> concentrations at a mountaintop location in the Rocky Mountains

Observations of CO₂ concentration at a mountaintop in the Colorado Rockies in summer show a large diurnal variability with minimum CO₂ concentrations found between 10:00 and 18:00 MST. Simulations are performed with a mesoscale model to examine the effects of atmospheric structure and large-scale flows on the diurnal variability. In the simulations initialized without large-scale winds, the CO₂ minimum occurs earlier compared to the observations. Upslope flows play an important role in the presence of this early (pre-noon) minimum while the timing and magnitude of the minimum depend only weakly on the temperature structure. An increase in large-scale flow has a noticeable impact on the diurnal variability with a more gradual decrease in daytime CO₂ concentration, similar to summer-averaged observations. From the idealized simulations and a case study, it is concluded that multi-scale flows and their interactions have a large influence on the observed diurnal variability.     

DIAS effective sunspot number as an indicator of the ionospheric activity level over Europe

DIAS (European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server) effective sunspot number — R12eff was recently introduced as a proxy of the ionospheric conditions over Europe for regional ionospheric mapping purposes. Although a pre-processing step for the real-time update of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional Model (SIRM) to real-time conditions, R12eff is available in real time by DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) for independent operational use. In this paper we discuss the efficiency of R12eff to specify ionospheric conditions over Europe. For this purpose, the diurnal R12eff’s reference pattern was determined on monthly basis and for different solar cycle phases. The deviation of the real-time R12eff estimates from the reference values, ΔR12eff was found to be highly correlated with the foF2 storm-time disturbances, especially during large scale effects indicating that DIAS-R12eff can provide a reliable estimator of the ionospheric activity level over a substantial part of Europe and a powerful tool for ionospheric specification applications.     

A paleomagnetic and rock-magnetic study of a neogene lava flow sequence in La Gomera (Canary Islands,Spain)

We present rock-magnetic and paleomagnetic results obtained on samples belonging to a Neogene sequence of 11 successive lava flows and a dyke from La Gomera (Canary Islands, Spain). Analysis of thermomagnetic curves allows to distinguish three types of samples: (i) Type H samples with low-Ti titanomagnetite as the only carrier of remanence; (ii) type M samples with a main intermediate Curie-temperature phase (T_C = 450°C) and low-Ti titanomagnetite; (iii) type L curves with a low Curie-temperature phase (T_C = 120 to 200°C) and an intermediate Curie-temperature phase (T_C = 400°C). Analysis of hysteresis parameters suggests that the grain size of most studied samples corresponds to pseudo single-domain particles, which can be also interpreted as a mixture of single-domain and multi-domain particles. Paleomagnetic experiments reveal only a single paleomagnetic component. Characteristic remanence of all studied lava flows and the dyke shows reverse polarity. The mean direction of the whole sequence is D = 188.2°, I =−35.4° (k = 46.9; α₉₅ = 6.4°) and the calculated paleomagnetic pole yields a longitude λ= 150.7° and a latitude ϕ= 78.8° (k = 59.4; A₉₅ = 5.7°). Secular variation is analysed through the scatter of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGP). A VGP angular scatter S_B = 5.9 with an upper confidence limit S_up = 8.0 and a lower confidence limit S_low = 4.6 are obtained. This scatter is clearly smaller than the average for this latitude obtained for the last 5 Ma. The studied lava flows were probably emitted in a relatively short time interval.     

What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”*

ABSTRACT

Srinivasan et al. provide an interesting overview of the challenges for long-term socio-hydrological predictions. Although agreeing with most of the statements made, we argue for the need to take socio-hydrological analysis a step further and add some fundamental considerations, especially concerning the crucial importance of many (conscious and unconscious) assumptions made upfront of the modelling exercise. Eventual assumptions of technological determinism need correction: Models are not “value-free”, but uncertain, subjective and a product of the society in which they were shaped. It is important to acknowledge this uncertainty and bias when making decisions based on socio-hydrological models, considering also that these models are “social and political actors” in and by themselves. Furthermore, socio-hydrological models require a transdisciplinary approach, since physical water availability is only one of the boundary conditions for society. Last but not least, interaction with stakeholders remains important to enable understanding of what the variable of interest is.