A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observations and Modelling of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Sea-Ice in a Svalbard Fjord

Sonic anemometer and profile mast measurements made in Wahlenbergfjorden, Svalbard Arctic archipelago, in May 2006 and April 2007 were employed to study the atmospheric boundary layer over sea-ice. The turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible heat were calculated using eddy correlation and gradient methods. The results showed that the literature-based universal functions underestimated turbulent mixing in strongly stable conditions. The validity of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory was questionable for cross-fjord flow directions and in the presence of mesoscale variability or topographic effects. The aerodynamic roughness length showed a dependence on the wind direction. The mean roughness length for along-fjord wind directions was (2.4 ± 2.6) × 10⁻⁴ m, whereas that for cross-fjord directions was (5.4 ± 2.8) × 10⁻³ m. The thermal stratification and turbulent fluxes were affected by the synoptic situation with large differences between the 2 years. Channelling effects and drainage flows occurred especially during a weak large-scale flow. The study periods were simulated applying the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1-km horizontal resolution in the finest domain. The results for the 2-m air temperature and friction velocity were good, but the model failed to reproduce the spatial variability in wind direction between measurement sites 3 km apart. The model suggested that wind shear above the stable boundary layer provided a non-local source for the turbulence observed.     

The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications

Communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty. Because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it. The present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action. Two studies (Ns = 88 and 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally. However when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act. Study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy. These results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty.     

Mn(II)-catalysed S(IV) oxidation and its inhibition by acetic acid in acidic aqueous solutions

The kinetics of the S(IV) oxidation by oxygen in the presence of Mn(II) ions and acetic acid has been studied. Experiments were carried out at 25°C, 3.5?≤?pH?≤?5.0, [S(IV)]≈1?×?10^?3 mol/dm³, 1?×?10^?6 mol/dm³?≤?[Mn(II)]?≤?1?×?10^?5 mol/dm³, 1?×?10^?6 mol/dm³?≤?[CH₃COOH]?≤?1?×?10^?4 mol/dm³. Based on the experimental results, rate constants and orders of the reactions were determined. Depending on the reaction conditions, the observed rate constants for the Mn(II)-catalysed S(IV) oxidation ranged between 3.91?×?10^?8 and 8.89?×?10^?7 (mol/dm³) s^?1, and in the presence of acetic acid they ranged between 2.95?×?10^?8 and 7.45?×?10^?7 (mol/dm³) s^?1. The reaction order in S(IV) was zero for both reactions. The effect of Mn(II) ion and acetic acid concentrations as well as an initial pH of the solution on the S(IV) oxidation rate was discussed. It was found that the rate of the S(IV) oxidation depends on the initial pH of the solution but it is independent of the pH change during the reaction. Acetic acid has a weak inhibiting effect on the Mn(II)-catalysed S(IV) oxidation. Under the experimental conditions the S(IV) oxidation rate decreased no more than twice.     

Sheared peridotite xenolith from the V. Grib kimberlite pipe,Arkhangelsk Diamond Province,Russia: Texture,composition, and origin

The petrography and mineral composition of a mantle-derived garnet peridotite xenolith from the V. Grib kimberlite pipe (Arkhangelsk Diamond Province, Russia) was studied. Based on petrographic characteristics, the peridotite xenolith reflects a sheared peridotite. The sheared peridotite experienced a complex evolution with formation of three main mineral assemblages: (1) a relict harzburgite assemblage consist of olivine and orthopyroxene porphyroclasts and cores of garnet grains (Gar1) with sinusoidal rare earth elements (REE) chondrite C1 normalized patterns; (2) a neoblastic olivine and orthopyroxene assemblage; (3) the last assemblage associated with the formation of clinopyroxene and garnet marginal zones (Gar2). Major and trace element compositions of olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and garnet indicate that both the neoblast and clinopyroxene-Gar2 mineral assemblages were in equilibrium with a high Fe-Ti carbonate-silicate metasomatic agent. The nature of the metasomatic agent was estimated based on high field strength elements (HFSE) composition of olivine neoblasts, the garnet-clinopyroxene equilibrium condition and calculated by REE-composition of Gar2 and clinopyroxene. All these evidences indicate that the agent was a high temperature carbonate-silicate melt that is geochemically linked to the formation of the protokimberlite melt.     

Silicified Precambrian evaporite nodules from Northern Norway: A preliminary report

Nodular silica concentrations reminiscent of evaporite bodies have been observed in the Late Precambrian (Riphean) Porsangerfjord Group in western Porsangerfjord, northern Norway. The nodules are individual or coalescent kidney-shaped bodies measuring a few centimetres across, and consist predominantly of megaquartz and of length-slow chalcedony. Length-fast chalcedony occurs only as a red layer present in some large nodules. Relics of a fibrous, felted or radiating texture are preserved in numerous crystals of megaquartz and quartzine.The quartz nodules are interpreted as silica-replaced, early diagenetic evaporite (anhydrite) bodies. The paleoclimatic importance of these Precambrian evaporites is briefly discussed and the significance of length-slow chalcedony as an indicator of evaporite environments is confirmed.     

Russia's 2020 GHG emissions target: Emission trends and implementation

This article provides an overview of the recent modelling results on Russia's GHG emission trends, and reviews the success of mitigation policies in order to establish whether Russia's domestic target seems feasible. Various Russian GHG emission scenarios indicate that Russia's domestic target – emissions 25% below the 1990 level by 2020 – is not far from the business-as-usual emissions trajectory. In particular, two factors could deliver the required emissions reductions: the currently declining gross domestic product (GDP) growth and ongoing domestic mitigation policies. The former is more likely to secure the target level of emissions, because GDP growth has been contracting significantly in comparison to earlier forecasts of 3–5% annual growth, and this trend is expected to continue. The latter option – success with domestic mitigation measures – seems less likely, given the various meta-barriers to policy implementation, and the marginality of mitigation policies, problems with law-making processes, bureaucratic tradition, and informality of legislative and implementation systems.

Policy relevance

This article provides an assessment of the stringency of Russia's domestically set emissions limitation target by 2020 and the chances of Russia, the fourth largest GHG emitter in the world, achieving it. We base our assessment on a number of recent key sources that analyse Russia's GHG emission paths by applying socio-economic models, which have only been available in the Russian language prior to this publication. This knowledge is applicable for use by other negotiation parties to compare Russia's efforts to mitigate climate change to their own, and thus makes a contribution to facilitating a more equal burden-sharing of climate commitments under the future climate change agreement.     

Humidity fluctuations in the marine boundary layer measured at a coastal site with an infrared humidity sensor

An extensive set of humidity turbulence data has been analyzed from 22-m height in the marine boundary layer. Fluctuations of humidity were measured by an OPHIR, an infrared humidity sensor with a 10 Hz scanning frequency and humidity spectra were produced. The shapes of the normalized spectra follow the established similarity functions. However the 10-min time averaged measurements underestimate the value of the absolute humidity. The importance of the humidity flux contribution in a marine environment in calculating the Obukhov stability length has been studied. Deviations from Monin-Obukhov similarity theory seem to be connected to a low correlation between humidity and temperature.     

Primary dolomite in the Late Triassic Travenanzes Formation,Dolomites, Northern Italy: Facies control and possible bacterial influence

In the late Carnian (Late Triassic), a carbonate‐clastic depositional system including a distal alluvial plain, flood basin and sabkha, tidal flat and shallow carbonate lagoon was established in the Dolomites (Northern Italy). The flood basin was a muddy supratidal environment where marine carbonates and continental siliciclastics interfingered. A dolomite phase made of sub‐micrometre euhedral crystals with a mosaic microstructure of nanometre‐scale domains was identified in stromatolitic laminae of the flood basin embedded in clay. This dolomite is interpreted here as primary and has a nearly stoichiometric composition, as opposed to younger early diagenetic (not primary) dolomite phases, which are commonly calcian. This primary dolomite was shielded from later diagenetic transformation by the clay. The stable isotopic composition of dolomite was analyzed along a depositional transect. The δ¹³C values range between ca ?6‰ and +4‰, with the most ¹³C‐depleted values in dolomites of the distal alluvial plain and flood basin, and the most ¹³C‐enriched in dolomites of the tidal flat and lagoon. Uniform δ¹⁸O values ranging between 0‰ and +3‰ were found in all sedimentary facies. It is hypothesized that the primary dolomite with mosaic microstructure nucleated on extracellular polymeric substances secreted by sulphate reducing bacteria. A multi‐step process involving sabkha and reflux dolomitization led to partial replacement and overgrowth of the primary dolomite, but replacement and overgrowth were facies‐dependent. Dolomites of the landward, clay‐rich portion of the sedimentary system were only moderately overgrown during late dolomitization steps, and partly retain an isotopic signature consistent with bacterial sulphate reduction with δ¹³C as low as ?6‰. In contrast, dolomites of the marine, clay‐free part of the system were probably transformed through sabkha and reflux diagenetic processes into calcian varieties, and exhibit δ¹³C values of ca +3‰. Major shifts of δ¹³C values strictly follow the lateral migration of facies and thus mark transgressions and regressions.