Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Spectral index determination between 408 MHz and 5 GHz in the northern sky

We present the joint analysis of two 5-GHz interferometric surveys of the northern sky, taken with different baselines. The two surveys were carried out on the Jodrell Bank 5-GHz interferometer based at Manchester. The Maximum Entropy Method is used to check the consistency of the two surveys and the final two-dimensional maps are used, together with low-frequency full sky surveys, to put constraints on the Galactic spectral index. It is found that synchrotron emission is the dominant process at high Galactic latitudes below 5 GHz.     

Bathymetry and Canyons of the western Solomon Sea

The floor of the western Solomon Sea (for new bathymetric map see inside back cover of this issue) is dominated by the arched and ridged basement of the Solomon Sea Basin, the partly-sediment-filled New Britain Trench, and a more completely filled trench, the Trobriand Trough. There is a deep basin where the trenches join (149° Embayment), and a silled basin west of the New Britain Trench (Finsch Deep). Submarine canyons descend from the west and south to the 149° Embayment. Abyssal fans and plains are structurally defined and locally disturbed by young faults. Probable submerged pinnacle reefs stand in water depths as great as 1,200 m.     

Vertical Structure in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer and its Implication for the Inertial Dissipation Method

The structure of the marine atmospheric boundarylayer and the validity ofMonin–Obukhov similarity theory over the seahave been investigated using longterm measurements. Three levels of turbulencemeasurements (at 10 m, 18 mand 26 m) at Östergarnsholm in themiddle of the Baltic Sea have beenanalysed. The results show that turbulentparameters have a strong dependenceon the actual height due to wave influence.The wind profile and thus thenormalised wind gradient are very sensitiveto wave state. The lower part of theboundary layer can be divided into three heightlayers, a wave influenced layerclose to the surface, a transition layer andan undisturbed ordinary surfacelayer; the depth of the layers is determinedby the wave state. This heightstructure can, however, not be found for thenormalised dissipation, which is onlya function of the stability, except duringpronounced swell where the actualheight also has to be accounted for. Theresults have implications for the heightvariation of the turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget. Thus, the imbalancebetween production and dissipation willalso vary with height according to thevariation of wave state. This, in turn,will of course have strong implicationsfor the inertial dissipation method, inwhich a parameterisation of the TKEbudget is used.     

A three-dimensional finite-element model of wind effects upon higher harmonics of the internal tide

A non-linear three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ tide in the shelf edge area off the west coast of Scotland is used to examine the spatial distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics in the region. In addition, the spatial variability of the tidally induced turbulent kinetic energy and associated mixing in the area are considered. Initial calculations involve only tidal forcing, although subsequent calculations are performed with up-welling and down-welling favourable winds to examine how these influence the tidal distribution (particularly the higher harmonics) and mixing in the region. Both short- and long-duration winds are used in these calculations. Tidal calculations show that there is significant small-scale spatial variability particularly in the higher harmonics of the internal tide in the region. In addition, turbulence energy and mixing exhibit appreciable spatial variability in regions of rapidly changing topography, with increased mixing occurring above seamounts. Wind effects significantly change the distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics, with appreciable differences found between up- and down-welling winds and long- and short-duration winds because of differences in mixing and the presence of wind-induced flows. The implications for model validation, particularly in terms of energy transfer to higher harmonics, and mixing are briefly discussed.     

On the influence of stratification and tidal forcing upon mixing in sill regions

A cross-sectional non-hydrostatic model with idealized topography was used to examine the processes influencing tidal mixing in the region of sills. Initial calculations with appropriate parameters for the sill at the entrance to Loch Etive showed that the model could reproduce the main features of the observed mixing in the region. In particular, the hydraulic jump in the sill region was reproduced, as was an intense mid-water jet that was observed to separate from the lee side of the sill. Shear instabilities associated with the jet appeared to be a source of mixing within the thermocline. In addition, internal lee waves were generated on the lee side of the sill, with the observed amplification because of trapping during the flood stage. Their magnitude and hence the mixing increased with increasing Froude number (F _r). In the case of vertically varying buoyancy frequency, its value near the sill top determined the F _r number, with its value below influencing internal waves magnitude at depth. At high F _r values particularly with strong currents, short waves and overturning occurred.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

The destructive effects of binary encounters on red giants in the Galactic Centre

We consider the destructive effects of encounters between binaries and red giant stars in the Galactic Centre. Such encounters may explain the observed depletion of luminous red giants within the central 0.2 pc of the galaxy. We consider encounters involving 2- and 8-M⊙ red giants, and thus span the range of stellar masses contributing to the most luminous red giants observed in the Galactic Centre. To explore the phase space of encounters thoroughly, we simulate 18 × 10³ encounters using a modified four-body code in which the red giant core and components of the binary are treated as point masses, and where the envelope configuration is assumed to remain static throughout the encounter. We then rerun a small number of encounters with a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) code to confirm the reliability of conclusions drawn from the four-body runs. We see two possible pathways to red giant destruction. A large fraction of encounters lead to the formation of common-envelope systems, where two compact objects (drawn from the red giant core and the components of the original binary) form a binary within a common gaseous envelope, whilst the third body is ejected. The destruction of the red giant will then follow when the envelope is ejected as the binary hardens. In a smaller number of encounters, the intruding binary passes through the star and ejects the red giant core from the envelope. The red giant envelope will then disperse on short time-scales. We compute the time-scales for both of these processes to occur in the Galactic Centre for a variety of binary populations.