Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc

We present for the first time a self-consistent methodology connecting volcanological field data to global climate model estimates for a regional time series of explosive volcanic events. Using the petrologic method, we estimated SO₂ emissions from 36 detected Plinian volcanic eruptions occurring at the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) during the past 200,000 years. Together with simple parametrized relationships collected from past studies, we derive estimates of global maximum volcanic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative forcing (RF) describing the effect of each eruption on radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. In parallel, AOD and RF time series for selected CAVA eruptions are simulated with the global aerosol model MAECHAM5-HAM, which shows a relationship between stratospheric SO₂ injection and maximum global mean AOD that is linear for smaller volcanic eruptions (<5 Mt SO₂) and nonlinear for larger ones (≥5 Mt SO₂) and is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the relationship used in the simple parametrized approximation. Potential climate impacts of the selected CAVA eruptions are estimated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity by RF time series derived by (1) directly from the global aerosol model and (2) from the simple parametrized approximation assuming a 12-month exponential decay of global AOD. We find that while the maximum AOD and RF values are consistent between the two methods, their temporal evolutions are significantly different. As a result, simulated global maximum temperature anomalies and the duration of the temperature response depend on which RF time series is used, varying between 2 and 3 K and 60 and 90 years for the largest eruption of the CAVA dataset. Comparing the recurrence time of eruptions, based on the CAVA dataset, with the duration of climate impacts, based on the model results, we conclude that cumulative impacts due to successive eruptions are unlikely. The methodology and results presented here can be used to calculate approximate volcanic forcings and potential climate impacts from sulfur emissions, sulfate aerosol or AOD data for any eruption that injects sulfur into the tropical stratosphere.     

Monitoring of heat transmission from buildings into geological environment and evaluation of soil deformation consequences in foundation engineering

In engineering geology a number of factors affecting foundation conditions are taken into consideration during engineering-geological investigations. This article deals with the factor of heat sourced from a structure (brick kiln) as a restrictive factor in foundation engineering in clay soils and introduces a documentation of soil deformation observations as an impact of the heat transmission into the geological environment. It was carried out in Southern Moravia in the Czech Republic, where the dominant foundation soils are Neogeneous clays where differential settlements of a tunnel kiln structure occurred as a result of ignoring the boundary conditions of temperature changes in the soil environment. The brick kilns caused heterogeneous spatial changes in the subsoil temperatures. This consequently resulted in differential settlements due to temperature changes originating from the kilns. The differential settlements reached as much as 150 mm. The major objective of the article is to highlight the importance of the heat transmission from buildings into the geological environment as a factor which should be considered in engineering geology and its application in planning. A new procedure for reducing or elimination of ground movements sourced from underlying clayey soils depending on the heat changes was also suggested in this context.     

Mineralisation of amethyst-bearing geodes in Ametista do Sul (Brazil) from low-temperature sedimentary brines: evidence from monophase liquid inclusions and stable isotopes

Fluid inclusion studies in combination with hydrogen, oxygen and sulphur isotope data provide novel insights into the genesis of giant amethyst-bearing geodes in Early Cretaceous Paraná continental flood basalts at Amestita do Sul, Brazil. Monophase liquid inclusions in colourless quartz, amethyst, calcite, barite and gypsum were analysed by microthermometry after stimulating bubble nucleation using single femtosecond laser pulses. The salinity of the fluid inclusions was determined from ice-melting temperatures and a combination of prograde and retrograde homogenisation temperatures via the density maximum of the aqueous solutions. Four mineralisation stages are distinguished. In stage I, celadonite, chalcedony and pyrite formed under reducing conditions in a thermally stable environment. Low δ³⁴S_V-CDT values of pyrite (?25 to ?32?‰) suggest biogenic sulphate reduction by organotrophic bacteria. During the subsequent stages II (amethyst, goethite and anhydrite), III (early subhedral calcite) and IV (barite, late subhedral calcite and gypsum), the oxidation state of the fluid changed towards more oxidising conditions and microbial sulphate reduction ceased. Three distinct modes of fluid salinities around 5.3, 3.4 and 0.3 wt% NaCl-equivalent characterise the mineralisation stages II, III and IV, respectively. The salinity of the stage I fluid is unknown due to lack of fluid inclusions. Variation in homogenisation temperatures and in δ¹⁸O values of amethyst show evidence of repeated pulses of ascending hydrothermal fluids of up to 80–90 °C infiltrating a basaltic host rock of less than 45 °C. Colourless quartz and amethyst formed at temperatures between 40 and 80 °C, while the different calcite generations and late gypsum precipitated at temperatures below 45 °C. Calculated oxygen isotope composition of the amethyst-precipitating fluid in combination with δD values of amethyst-hosted fluid inclusions (?59 to ?51?‰) show a significant ¹⁸O-shift from the meteoric water line. This ¹⁸O-shift, high salinities of the fluid inclusions with chloride-sulphate composition, and high δ³⁴S values of anhydrite and barite (7.5 to 9.9?‰) suggest that sedimentary brines from deeper parts of the Guaraní aquifer system must have been responsible for the amethyst mineralisation.     

Analysing the spatio-temporal evolution of an active debris slide in Eastern Himalaya,India

Landslide is one of the prominent geohazards in the Himalayas where loss of lives and property are common. Owing to the complicated geomorphic and tectono-stratigraphic setting of this active Fold-thrust belt (FTB), landsliding of all possible types and spatial scales observed exhibit conspicuous spatio-temporal signatures and evolution. This evolution of landslides is commonly studied by regional assessment and by examining the multi-temporal landslide inventories of a particular area. The success of creating such multi-temporal landslide inventory depends on (i) the availability of relevant past source data (e.g., images, post event maps, air photos etc.) of suitable resolution, scale and quality, (ii) time of generation of source data with respect to the time of landsliding event, (iii) skill of the investigators in interpreting the old images, air photos etc. However, this method is of restricted use in studying the spatio-temporal evolution of a single landslide which is perennially active in the Himalayan terrain, where rapid changes in land use and land cover patterns readily obliterate the signatures of past landsliding. Moreover because of scale constraints, subtle and frequent changes in the spatial dimensions of these individual landslides, and their temporal activity become difficult to identify in such regional assessment carried out over a larger area. In this study therefore, a different approach is adopted whereby the spatio-temporal activity and style of Lanta Khola landslide, a perennially active and large (0.25 km²) debris flow in the Eastern Himalayas, has been studied in detail through detailed scale (1:1000) site-specific geological mapping in phases during the last 28 years (1983–2011). Such site-specific geological observations coupled with numerical slope stability analysis utilising the limit equilibrium method facilitate in detailed understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution and inherent mechanism of this perennial landslide.     

Is area affected by flood or stagnant water independently associated with poorer health outcomes in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas?

This study investigated the association of flood/stagnant water (FSW) with various health outcomes among respondents living in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas. We also assessed the differences of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics between the FSW-affected and non-affected areas. Bangladesh as a whole and slums in the megacity of Dhaka in particular are severely affected by the FSW. Data were collected from 3,207 subjects (aged 10+ years) through baseline surveys conducted in March 2008 and 2009. Twelve big slums in Dhaka and three adjacent villages were selected as study areas. Face-to-face interviews using a multidimensional pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by the trained university graduates. We performed various types of analyses ranging from the simple frequency analysis to the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression modelling. Our empirical findings suggest that slums were more affected by the FSW as compared to the rural areas. People living in the FSW-affected areas were more vulnerable in terms of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics than non-affected people. Age was also significantly associated with various health outcomes. According to multivariable analyses controlled for various factors, the FSW-affected people reported significantly higher likelihoods of health symptoms (namely fever, cold/cough, weakness), communicable diseases (namely diarrhoea and gastric disease) and poor mental well-being as compared to the non-affected people. Only the burden of non-communicable diseases was lower in the FSW-affected areas than the non-affected areas. Our findings lead us to conclude that the FSW-affected area is an independent risk factor for various physical and mental health problems. Urban slums are more affected than rural areas by the FSW. Therefore, we underscore the necessities of well-designed and comprehensive public health interventions focusing on individual, community and higher levels of interventions to reduce the FSW-related health and other consequences among the people living in the FSW-affected areas and urban slums in the rapidly growing city of Dhaka, Bangladesh.     

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Constraints on the C ring parameters of Saturn at the Titan −1:0 resonance

A one-armed spiral bending wave in Saturn's rings excited by Titan's −1:0 inner vertical resonance is one of the most prominent oscillatory features observed by Voyager 1 . We study detailed dynamics of the particles inside the ring, and show that one of the main causes of the complete dissipation of the bending wave within a distance of ∼85 km from the resonance site could be as a result of the presence of a strong shear caused by radial velocity variation along the vertical direction. Assuming this to be the only source, Voyager data would suggest that if the surface density of matter is around 0.45 g cm⁻² and the amplitude of the bending wave is around 1200 m, then the upper limit of total vertical thickness of the C ring near this resonance is around 40 m.     

A Study of an Inhomogeneous Bianchi-I Model in Lyra Geometry

The inhomogeneous Bianchi-I model based on Lyra's geometry has been studied in the cosmological theory in presence of a massless inhomogeneous scalar field whose potential has a flat part. The field equations are solved using separation of variables and it is shown that one of the time part of the field equations are solvable for any arbitrary other cosmic scale function. Solutions for a particular form of cosmic scale (time part) is presented. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.