Line diagnostics for Ne V and Mg V solar ions

Spectroscopic diagnostics for the Nev and Mgv solar ions have been investigated. The theoretical forbidden line ratios from these ions are presented for estimating the Ne/Mg variation in different solar structures. Calculations for density and temperature line diagnostics of these ions are given for the several spectral line ratios and their applications are discussed with the help of available solar observations in space. Future observations from the CDS and the SUMER experiments aboard the SOHO satellite are also discussed.     

Trend removal in spatially correlated datasets

Typically, datasets originated from mining exploration sites, industrially polluted and hazardous waste sites are correlated spatially over the region under investigation. Ordinary kriging (OK) is a well-established geostatistical tool used for predicting variables, such as precious metal contents, biomass, species counts, and environmental pollutants at unsampled spatial locations based on data collected from the neighboring sampled locations at these sites. One of the assumptions required to perform OK is that the mean of the characteristic of concern is constant for the entire region under consideration (e.g., there is no spatial trend present in the contaminant distribution across the site). This assumption may be violated by dalasets obtained from environmental applications. The occurrence of spatial trend in a dataset collected from a polluted site is an indication of the presence of two or more statistical populations (strata) with significantly different mean concentrations. Use of OK in these situations can result in inaccurate kriging estimates with higher SDs which, in turn, can lead to incorrect decisions regarding all subsequent environmental monitoring and remediation activities. A univariate and a multivariate approach have been described to identify spatial trend that may be present at the site. The trend then is removed by subtracting the respective means from the corresponding populations. The results of OK before and after trend removal are being compared. Using a real dataset, it is shown that standard deviations (SDs) of the kriging estimates obtained after trend removal are uniformly smaller than the corresponding SDs of the estimates obtained without the trend removal.     

Asymmetries during the maximum phase of solar cycle 22

This paper presents the results of studies of the asymmetries (N-S and E-W) for different manifestations of solar activity events (sunspot groups, H flares and active prominences/filaments) during the maximum-phase (1989–1991) of solar cycle 22. During the period considered, the results obtained show the existence of a real N-S asymmetry, whereas the E-W asymmetry may exist only for H flares. There is no definite relationship between the asymmetries and the occurrence of events; however, around low activity sometimes we find enhanced asymmetry, and low asymmetry around high activity. Our study suggests a good agreement with similar studies made by others.     

Editorial

The Rattlesnake Tuff of eastern Oregon comprises >99% ofhigh-silica rhyolite glass shards and pumices representing 280km³ of magma. Glassy, crystal-poor, high-silica rhyolite pumicesand glass shards cluster in five chemical groups that rangein color from white to dark gray with increasing Fe concentration.Compositional clusters are defined by Fe, Ti, LREE, Ba, Eu,Rb, Zr, Hf, Ta, and Th. Progressive changes with increasingdegree of evolution of the magma occur in modal mineralogy,mineral composition, and partition coefficients. Partition coefficientsare reported for alkali feldspar, clinopyroxene, and titanomagnetite.Models of modal crystal fractionation, assimilation, successivepartial melting, and mixing of end members cannot account forthe chemical variations among rhyolite compositions. On theother hand, 50% fractionation of observed phenocryst compositionsin non-modal proportions agrees with chemical variations amongrhyolite compositions. Such non-modal fractionation might occuralong the roof and margins of a magma chamber and would yieldcompositions of removed solids ranging from syenitic to granitic.A differentiation sequence is proposed by which each more evolvedcomposition is derived from the previous, less evolved liquidby fractionation and accumulation, occurring mainly along theroof of a slab-like magma chamber. As a layer of derivativemagma reaches a critical thickness, a new layer is formed, generatinga compositionally and density stratified magma chamber. KEY WORDS: high-silica rhyolite; partition coefficients; differentiation; zoned ash-flow tuff; layered convection     

Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño in central California waters

The physical, chemical and biological perturbations in central California waters associated with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño are described and explained on the basis of time series collected from ships, moorings, tide gauges and satellites. The evolution of El Niño off California closely followed the pattern observed in the tropical Pacific. In June 1997 an anomalous influx of warm southerly waters, with weak signatures on coastal sea level and thermocline depth, marked the onset of El Niño in central California. The timing was consistent with propagation from the tropics via the equatorial and coastal wave-guide. By late 1997, the classical stratified ocean condition with a deep thermocline, high sea level, and warm sea surface temperature (SST) commonly associated with El Niño dominated the coastal zone. During the first half of 1998 the core of the California Current, which is normally detected several hundred kilometers from shore as a river of low salinity, low nutrient water, was hugging the coast. High nutrient, productive waters that occur in a north–south band from the coast to approximately 200 km offshore during cool years disappeared during El Niño. The nitrate in surface waters was less than 20% of normal and new production was reduced by close to 70%. The La Niña recovery phase began in the fall of 1998 when SSTs dropped below normal, and ocean productivity rebounded to higher than normal levels. The reduction in coastal California primary productivity associated with El Niño was estimated to be 50 million metric tons of carbon (5×10¹³ g C). This reduction certainly had deleterious effects on zooplankton, fish, and marine mammals. The 1992–1993 El Niño was more moderate than the 1997–1998 event, but because its duration was longer, its overall chemical and biological impact may have been comparable. How strongly the ecosystem responds to El Niño appears related to the longer-term background climatic state of the Pacific Ocean. The 1982–1983 and 1992–1993 El Niños occurred during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may have changed sign during the 1997–1998 El Niño, resulting in weaker ecological effects than would otherwise have been predicted based on the strength of the temperature anomaly.     

Small Scale Field Study of an Ocean CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Plume

We have carried out a small-scale (∼20 l) CO₂ sequestration experiment off northern California (684 m depth, ∼5°C, background ocean pH ∼7.7) designed as an initial investigation of the effects of physical forcing of the fluid, and the problem of sensing the formation of a low pH plume. The buoyant CO₂ was contained in a square frame 1.2 m high, exposing 0.21 m² to ocean flow. Two pH electrodes attached to the frame recorded the signal; a second frame placed 1.9 m south of the CO₂ pool was also equipped with two recording pH electrodes. An additional pH electrode was held in the ROV robotic arm to probe the fluid interface. Local water velocities of up to 40 cm sec⁻¹ were encountered, creating significant eddies within the CO₂ box, and forcing wavelets at the fluid interface. This resulted in rapid CO₂ dissolution, with all CO₂ being depleted in a little more than 2 days. The pH record from the sensor closest (∼10 cm) to the CO₂ showed many spikes of low pH water, the extreme value being ∼5.9. The sensor 1 m immediately below this showed no detectable response. The electrodes placed 1.9 m distant from the source also recorded very small perturbations. The results provide important clues for the design of future experiments for CO₂ disposal and biogeochemical impact studies. These include the need for dealing with the slow CO₂ hydration kinetics, better understanding of the fluid dynamics of the CO₂-water interface, and non-point source release designs to provide more constant, controlled local CO₂ enrichments within the experimental area. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Public climate-change skepticism,energy preferences and political participation

Many studies have shown a general decline of public concern about climate change or vice versa a rise in public climate-change skepticism, in particular in the U.S. and other Anglo-Saxon countries. There is a vivid debate on whether this is a global phenomenon, on which factors explain the decline, and on the broader societal implications of these trends in the context of the transformation toward a low-carbon society. We add to this literature by presenting the results of a recent general population survey in Germany in which we looked for systematic linkages between public climate-change skepticism on one hand, and energy preferences and political participation on the other. Germany is an interesting testbed as it is currently involved in a large-scale restructuring of its system of energy supply toward renewable energy sources (the “Energiewende”). Our results indicate that climate-change skepticism has not diffused widely in Germany, but that it correlates with less support of renewable energy sources. However, skepticism correlates negatively with political participation, and there is no strong political outlet for public climate-change skepticism in Germany. Alternative potential barriers for the successful implementation of the “Energiewende” are also discussed.     

Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.