Applying Fractal Dimensions and Energy-Budget Analysis to Characterize Fracturing Processes During Magma Migration and Eruption: 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) Submarine Eruption

The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.     

Real‐time distributed hybrid testing: coupling geographically distributed scientific equipment across the Internet to extend seismic testing capabilities

Large‐scale testing and qualification of structural systems and their components is crucial for the development of earthquake engineering knowledge and practice. However, laboratory capacity is often limited when attempting larger experiments due to the sheer size of the structures involved. To overcome traditional laboratory capacity limitations, we present a new earthquake engineering testing method: real‐time distributed hybrid testing. Extending current approaches, the technique enables geographically distributed scientific equipment including controllers, dynamic actuators and sensors to be coupled across the Internet in real‐time. As a result, hybrid structural emulations consisting of physical and numerical substructures need no longer be limited to a single laboratory. Larger experiments may distribute substructures across laboratories located in different cities whilst maintaining correct dynamic coupling, required to accurately capture physical rate effects. The various aspects of the distributed testing environment have been considered. In particular, to ensure accurate control across an environment not designed for real‐time testing, new higher level control protocols are introduced acting over an optimised communication system. New large time‐step prediction algorithms are used, capable of overcoming both local actuation and distributed system delays. An overview of the architecture and algorithms developed is presented together with results demonstrating a number of current capabilities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy balance and evaporation loss of an agricultural reservoir in a semi‐arid climate (south‐eastern Spain)

A typical agricultural water reservoir (AWR) of 2400 m² area and 5 m depth, located in a semi‐arid area (southern Spain), was surveyed on a daily basis for 1 year. The annual evaporation flux was 102·7 W m^?2, equivalent to an evaporated water depth of 1310 mm year^?1. The heat storage rate G exhibited a clear annual cycle with a peak gain in April (G ～ 45 W m^?2) and a peak loss in November (G ～ 40 W m^?2), leading to a marked annual hysteretic trend when evaporation (λE) was related to net radiation (R_n). λE was strongly correlated with the available energy A, representing 91% of the annual AWR energy loss. The sensible heat flux H accounted for the remaining 9%, leading to an annual Bowen ratio in the order of 0·10. The equilibrium and advective evaporation terms of the Penman formula represented 76 and 24%, respectively, of the total evaporation, corresponding to a annual value of the Priestley–Taylor (P–T) coefficient (α) of 1·32. The P–T coefficient presented a clear seasonal pattern, with a minimum of 1·23 (July) and a maximum of 1·65 (December), indicating that, during periods of limited available energy, AWR evaporation increased above the potential evaporation as a result of the advection process. Overall, the results stressed that accurate prediction of monthly evaporation by means of the P–T formula requires accounting for both the annual cycle of storage and the advective component. Some alternative approaches to estimating R_n, G and α are proposed and discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-precision geoid determination in small areas: A case study in Doñana National Park (Spain)

Doñana National Park is an area of approximately 500 km² located on the SW coast of Spain that shows one of the greatest geoid gradients on the entire Iberian Peninsula, due to its peculiar tectonic characteristics. So, it is necessary to elaborate an accurate geoid model that can be used with GPS for precise surveying, since the existing ones are insufficient, due to their poor resolution and their limited adaptation to a small area with such a strong gradient. The least squares prediction method was tested in order to obtain the undulation from GPS/orthometric points. The results obtained were unsatisfactory because of the strong geoid gradient. In order to improve accuracy the remove-restore technique was used. Global geopotential model EIGEN-CG01C and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a 25 × 25 m resolution and an accuracy better than 3 m were used. Thus, the final geometrical geoid obtained reaches the precision required by other disciplines (3 cm in any point within the Park). Particularly, the geoid model has allowed for the acquisition of a precision DEM that is essential to formulate a hydrodynamic model for the Doñana marsh functions.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.