Development of site-specific design ground motions in Western and Eastern North America

This paper presents results recently obtained for generating site-specific ground motions needed for design of critical facilities. The general approach followed in developing these ground motions using either deterministic or probabilistic criteria is specification of motions for rock outcrop or very firm soil conditions followed by adjustments for site-specific conditions. Central issues in this process include development of appropriate attenuation relations and their uncertainties, differences in expected motions between Western and Eastern North America, and incorporation of site-specific adjustments that maintain the same hazard level as the control motions, while incorporating uncertainties in local dynamic material properties. For tectonically active regions, such as the Western United States (WUS), sufficient strong motion data exist to constrain empirical attenuation relations for M up to about 7 and for distances greater than about 10–15 km. Motions for larger magnitudes and closer distances are largely driven by extrapolations of empirical relations and uncertainties need to be substantially increased for these cases.

For the Eastern United States (CEUS), due to the paucity of strong motion data for cratonic regions worldwide, estimation of strong ground motions for engineering design is based entirely on calibrated models. The models are usually calibrated and validated in the WUS where sufficient strong motion data are available and then recalibrated for applications to the CEUS. Recalibration generally entails revising parameters based on available CEUS ground motion data as well as indirect inferences through intensity observations. Known differences in model parameters such as crustal structure between WUS and CEUS are generally accommodated as well. These procedures are examined and discussed.     

The 3-D Sun and heliosphere at solar maximum

Bob Forsyth and Andy Breen report from the RAS G Discussion Meeting at the Geological Society on 11 January 2002. Presentations came from both the solar and heliospheric communities, on the 3-D structure and dynamics of the solar corona and heliosphere and their inter-relation during the present maximum in the solar activity cycle.     

新形势下林区的就业机会与渠道

我国实施“天然林保护工程”以来,林区人民积极转产分流,寻找新的就业门路和生计,为走出困境、改善生活做出了不懈的努力。为了进一步开阔视野,拓展思路,借鉴他国的经验,我们选刊了“国际森林趋势组织”的几篇关于寻找新的林区就业渠道和森林环境服务市场开发方面的研究文章,以期对我国的林业改革与建设有所启示。(注:这些文章已经“森林趋势组织”的执行主管Mivhael Jenkins先生同意译成中文在本刊刊登,本刊作了部分删节和改动。原文及参考文献请参阅森林趋势组织的网页:http://www. forest-trends. org)     

A 1500-year record of climatic and environmental change in ElkLake, Minnesota I: Varve thickness and gray-scale density

The deepest part (29.5 m) of Elk Lake, ClearwaterCounty, northwestern Minnesota, contains a complete Holocene section that iscontinuously varved. The varve components are predominantly autochthonous(CaCO₃, organic matter, biogenic silica, and several iron andmanganese minerals), but the varves do contain a minor detrital-clastic(aluminosilicate) component that is predominantly wind-borne (eolian) andprovides an important record of atmospheric conditions. Singular spectrumanalysis (SSA) and wavelet analysis of varve thickness recognized significantperiodicities in the multicentennial and multidecadal bands that varied inpower (i.e., variable significance) and position (i.e., variable period) withinthe periodic bands. Persistent periodicities of about 10, 22, 40, and 90 years,and, in particular, multicentennial periodicities in varve thickness and otherproxy variables are similar to those in spectra of radiocarbon production, aproxy for past solar activity. This suggests that there may be a solar control,perhaps through geomagnetic effects on atmospheric circulation. Multicentennialand multidecadal periodicities also occur in wavelet spectra of relativegray-scale density. However, gray-scale density does not appear to correlatewith any of the measured proxy variables, and at this point we do not know whatcontrolled gray scale.     

The BEAM-project: prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities in the aquatic environment

Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined.     

Lipid distribution in a subtropical southern China stalagmite as a record of soil ecosystem response to paleoclimate change

Lipid extracts from a 61.7-cm-long subtropical stalagmite in southern China, spanning the period of ca. 10,000–21,000 yr ago as constrained by U–Th dating, were analyzed using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. The higher plants and microorganisms in the overlying soils contribute a proportion of n-alkanes identified in the stalagmite. The occurrence of LMW (lower molecular weight) n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-ones in the stalagmite was mainly related to the soil microorganisms. We suggest that HMW (higher molecular weight) n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-ones identified in the stalagmite originate from soil organics and reflect input from contemporary vegetation. Shifts in the ratio of LMW to HMW n-alkanols or n-alkan-2-ones indicative of the variation of soil ecosystems (e.g., microbial degradation of organic matter and/or the relative abundance of soil microorganisms to higher plants) are comparable with the subtropical alkenone-SST (sea surface temperature) record of the same period. The similar trends seen in the δ¹³C data and the lipid parameters in this stalagmite imply that the overlying soil ecosystem response to climate might be responsible for the variation of δ¹³C values.     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

The l:200,000-scale map of the near-surface mineral resources of the Federal Republic of Germany

For those who deal with aspects of regional planning that are affected by the extraction of near-surface mineral resources, a simple map that shows the distribution of these resources accompanied by explanatory notes is essential; a preliminary 1:1 million-scale map was published in 1982. The Geological Surveys of the Federal States of Germany, in conjunction with the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, are compiling a series of maps that will cover the country at a scale of 1:200,000. When completed by the end of the next decade, this set of maps will consist of 57 sheets, each of which will be accompanied by explanatory notes. By the end of 1995, 17 sheets had been published BGR reports on the status of a Federal mineral-resource mapping program.     

Observations of borehole-source amplitude reduction due to casing

Theoretical results show that the amplitude of a borehole source is reduced when the well in which it is operated is cased and cemented. This reduction is a strong function of the formation velocity and is more weakly dependent on the direction of propagation of the wave travelling from source to receiver and on the diameter of the borehole itself. We have tested these predictions with data gathered in a cross-hole seismic experiment conducted in two stages in 1990 and 1991. The source and receivers were located in the MIT/Stech 1-21A and MIT/Burch 1-20B wells at the Earth Resources Laboratory (ERL) test site in Michigan (USA). Though the source well (MIT/Stech 1-21A) was uncased in 1990, a steel casing and cement were added prior to the collection of data in 1991. Several receiver positions were reoccupied to compare data collected with the source in open and cased holes. Using a velocity model for this area and borehole diameter measurements from a calliper log, a compensation factor can be computed that will adjust the data collected in 1991 to have amplitudes comparable to that collected in the first stage of the experiment. The accuracy of the results demonstrates the validity of the theory, which can be very useful in better understanding seismic waveforms recorded in cross-hole experiments.     

The use of GPR and VES in delineating a contamination plume in a landfill site: a case study in SE Brazil

This paper presents the results of the application of the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) method, or Georadar, in outlining a zone of contamination due to solid residues at the waste burial site of Rio Claro in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil. A total of eight GPR profiles with 50- and 100-MHz antennae were surveyed. Six profiles were located within the landfill site and the remaining two were outside. The main objective of the GPR survey was to evaluate the side extension of contamination. A Vertical Electric Sounding (VES) survey was performed at four points within the site in order to investigate the vertical extent of the contamination plume and to define the bottom of the landfill. Two additional VESs were done outside the landfill with the purpose of determining the top of the ground water table and the geoelectric stratigraphy of the background. From the interpretation of the GPR profiles, it was possible to locate the top of the contamination plume and to infer that it was migrating laterally beyond the limits of the waste disposal site. This was observed along the profile situated close to the highway SP-127, which was about 20 m from the limit of the site. The signature of the contaminant appears as a discontinuous reflector that is believed to be a shallow ground water table. The discontinuity is marked by a shadow zone, which is characteristic of conductive contaminant residues. The contamination did not move far enough to reach a sugar cane plantation located at approximately 100 m from the border of the site. In the regions free from contamination, the ground water table was mapped at approximately 10 m of depth, and it was characterized by a strong and continuous reflector. The radar signal penetrated deep enough and enabled the identification of a second reflector at approximately 14 m deep, interpreted as the contact between the Rio Claro and the Corumbataí formations. The contact is marked by the presence of gravel characterized by ferruginous concretes, which cause the strong amplitude reflection in the GPR profile. Within the landfill site, the quantitative interpretation of the VES results showed the contamination zone. The base of the landfill varies between 11 and 15 m deep. Outside the landfill site, the VES results showed no indication of contamination and allowed the determination of the top of the ground water table and the contact between the Rio Claro and the Corumbataí formations. The results of GPR and VES showed a good agreement and the integrated interpretations were supported by local geology and information from several boreholes, about 17 m depth, on average. The bottom of the landfill reaches a maximum of 14.5 m depth.