The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

The thoracican cirripede genus Concinnalepas Gale, 2014 (Crustacea) from the Middle and Upper Jurassic of southern England and northern France

New material of the cirripede genus Concinnalepas is described from the Kimmeridge Clay (Tithonian) of Dorset (UK) and the Marnes de Port (Bathonian) of Port-en-Bessin in Normandy (France). Articulated specimens of C. costata (Withers, 1928), attached to driftwood from Kimmeridge, provide hitherto unknown details of tiered lateral plate formation in the species, and Concinnalepas bessinensis sp. nov. and C. rugosa sp. nov. are described from Normandy and Dorset, respectively. Concinnalepas bessinensis sp. nov. is the oldest calcite-shelled cirripede known to date. A review of the distribution of Jurassic calcareous cirripedes demonstrates that pre-Kimmeridgian records are very sparse and scattered and the early evolutionary history of the group is poorly known. The late Kimmeridgian and Tithonian saw a radiation of the Family Zeugmatolepadidae and a great increase in abundance of cirripedes that mostly lived as epiplankton, attached to driftwood and ammonite shells.     

森林生态服务市场的开发

<正> 森林提供许多有价值的生态服务,诸如保护流域和生物多样性以及贮存碳素等,现已引起企业、政府乃至个人越来越多的关注,同时人们也意识到随着森林这些功能的退化甚至丧失所带来的危险和代价。这种退化既能引起洪水、山崩之类的局部灾难,也会导致全球气候变化之类的广泛影响。     

The effects of ditch dams on water-level dynamics in tropical peatlands

A significant proportion of tropical peatlands has been drained for agricultural purposes, resulting in severe degradation. Hydrological restoration, which usually involves blocking ditches, is therefore a priority. Nevertheless, the influence of ditch blocking on tropical peatland hydrological functioning is still poorly understood. We studied water-level dynamics using a combination of automated and manual dipwells, and also meteorological data during dry and wet seasons over 6 months at three locations in Sebangau National Park, Kalimantan, Indonesia. The locations were a forested peatland (Forested), a drained peatland with ditch dams (Blocked), and a drained peatland without ditch dams (Drained). In the dry season, water tables at all sites were deeper than the Indonesian regulatory requirement of 40 cm from the peat surface. In the dry season, the ditches were dry and water did not flow to them. The dry season water-table drawdown rates — solely due to evapotranspiration — were 9.3 mm day⁻¹ at Forested, 9.6 mm day⁻¹ at Blocked, but 12.7 mm day⁻¹ at Drained. In the wet season, the proportion of time during which water tables in the wells were deeper than the 40 cm limit ranged between 16% and 87% at Forested, 0% at Blocked, and between 0% and 38% at Drained. In the wet season, water flowed from the peatland to ditches at Blocked and Drained. The interquartile range of hydraulic gradients between the lowest ditch outlet and the farthest well from ditches at Blocked was 3.7 × 10⁻⁴ to 7.8 × 10⁻⁴ m m⁻¹, but 1.9 × 10⁻³ to 2.6 × 10⁻³ m m⁻¹ at Drained. Given the results from Forested, a water-table depth limit policy based on field data may be required, to reflect natural seasonal dynamics in tropical peatlands. Revised spatial designs of dams or bunds are also required, to ensure effective water-table management as part of tropical peatland restoration.     

The BIMA Survey of Nearby Galaxies (BIMA SONG)

BIMA SONG is a systematic imaging study of the 3 mm CO J = 1 → 0molecular emission within the centres and discs of 44 nearby spiral galaxies on size scales of a few hundred parsecs (6-9"). The overall goal of the survey is to study the role of molecular gas in the evolution of spiral galaxies. To this end, BIMA SONG addresses 1) the distribution and physical conditions of the molecular gas in galactic discs and its relation to star formation, 2) the effects of a stellar bar on the kinematics of molecular gas, including the possible inflow of gas along a bar, and 3) the distribution and role of molecular gas in the central few hundred parsecs of active and quiescent galaxies. The source list includes all (except M33and M31) 44 galaxies of Hubble types Sa–Sd, with declinations δ >−20^°, visual magnitudes B < 11.0, velocities v _hel <2000 km s^-1, and inclinations i < 70^°. Beyond the specific scientific questions we will address, this survey will provide a unique database for astronomers who study galaxies at all wavelengths. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.     

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.     

Constraining Holocene lake levels and coastal dune activity in the Lake Michigan basin

Sediment cores collected from embayed lakes along the east-central coast of Lake Michigan are used to construct aeolian sand records of past coastal dune mobility, and to constrain former lake levels in the Lake Michigan basin. Time series analysis of sand cycles based on the weight-percent aeolian sand within lacustrine sediment, reveals statistically significant spectral peaks that coincide with established lake level cycles in Lake Michigan and the Gleissberg sunspot cycle of minima. Longer cycles of ~ 800 and ~ 2200 years were also identified that correspond to solar cycles. Shorter cycles between 80 and 220 years suggest a link between coastal dune mobility, climate, and lake levels in the Lake Michigan basin. Radiocarbon-dated sedimentary contacts of lacustrine sediment overlying wetland sediment record the Nipissing transgression in the Lake Michigan basin. Lake level rise closely mimics the predicted uplift of the North Bay outlet, with lake level rise slowing when outflow was transferred to the Port Huron/Sarnia outlet. The Nipissing highstand was reached after 5000 cal (4.4 ka) BP.     

Planning for resettlement: building partnerships for,by, and with Indigenous peoples

Efforts in the United States to plan or implement relocation in response to climate risks have struggled to improve material conditions for participants, to incorporate local knowledge, and to keep communities intact. Mixed methodologies of community geography provide an opportunity for dialogue and knowledge-sharing to collaboratively diagnose the challenges of climate adaptation led by communities. In this article, we advance a participatory practice model for the co-creation of knowledge initiated during a two-day workshop with members from the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe from Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, Yup’ik people from Newtok Village in Alaska, and researchers from the MIT Resilient Communities Lab. Building on prior scholarship of indigenizing climate change research, this article shares the experience of the workshop to support knowledge exchange and dialogue, with the goal of understanding how to build participatory and non-extractive community-academic partnerships. We reflect on the community values and principles used to guide this workshop to inform more inclusive and co-produced research partnerships, and pedagogies that can improve and assist the self-determination of groups impacted by climate change. Workshop presentations and discussions highlight interconnected themes of resources, systems & structures, regulatory imbalance, and resilience that underpin climate resettlement. We reflect on the narratives presented by members of both Indigenous tribes and NGO partners that illustrate the shortcomings of resettlement planning practices past and present as perpetuating existing inequality. In response to this structured knowledge exchange, we identify potential roles for community-academic partnerships that aim to improve the equity of existing resettlement models. We propose approaches for incorporating traditional knowledge into the pedagogy, discourse, and practice of academic planning programs.