The effect of environmental change on human migration

The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures.     

Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are...     

Characterizing atmospheric surface layer turbulence using chaotic return map analysis

Nonlinear time series analysis methods are used to investigate the dynamics of mechanical and convective turbulences in the atmospheric surface layer flow. Using dynamical invariant analysis (e.g. correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent and mutual information) along with recurrence quantification analysis (e.g. recurrent rate, determinism, average diagonal length of recurrence plot, etc.) of the vertical wind component data, it is confirmed that a convective turbulence is a lower order manifold in its phase space exhibiting higher degree of organization than a mechanical turbulence. Applying a quasi-one-dimensional chaotic return map technique, the topological differences between the mechanical and convective turbulences are explored. These quasi-one-dimensional return maps are produced using the local maxima of the first principal component of the reconstructed turbulence data. A comparison of the probability distribution of the local maxima of a forced Lorenz model with the turbulence data indicates the possible existence of a stable fixed point for both type of turbulences. Furthermore, dynamically the mechanical turbulence is found to resemble an unforced Lorenz model whereas the convective turbulence resembles a forced Lorenz model.     

Study of near-surface models for large-eddy simulations of a neutrally stratified atmospheric boundary layer

In large-eddy simulations (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), near-surface models are often used to supplement subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulent stresses when a major fraction of the energetic scales within the surface layer cannot be resolved with the temporal and spatial resolution at hand. In this study, we investigate the performance of both dynamic and non-dynamic eddy viscosity models coupled with near-surface models in simulations of a neutrally stratified ABL. Two near-surface models that are commonly used in LES of the atmospheric boundary layer are considered. Additionally, a hybrid Reynolds- averaged/LES eddy viscosity model is presented, which uses Prandtl’s mixing length model in the vicinity of the surface, and blends in with the dynamic Smagorinsky model away from the surface. Present simulations show that significant portions of the modelled turbulent stresses are generated by the near-surface models, and they play a dominant role in capturing the expected logarithmic wind profile. Visualizations of the instantaneous vorticity field reveal that flow structures in the vicinity of the surface depend on the choice of the near-surface model. Among the three near-surface models studied, the hybrid eddy viscosity model gives the closest agreement with the logarithmic wind profile in the surface layer. It is also observed that high levels of resolved turbulence stresses can be maintained with the so-called canopy stress model while producing good agreement with the logarithmic wind profile.     

Sequestration rental policies and price path of carbon

Abstract

Carbon rental has been suggested as a way of providing incentives to sequester carbon in biomass in the context of emissions trading systems for GHG emissions. A rental system works by issuing a credit for sequestered carbon that must be repaid after some fixed term. Rental systems avoid many of the difficulties of ensuring the permanence of sequestered carbon that exist in other institutional arrangements. This article adapts the results of Herzog et al. (2003) to argue that a rental system requires that carbon prices rise more slowly than the value of alternative investments in order to provide adequate incentives, and that there are good reasons to believe that this may not happen. Proponents need to directly address this potential difficulty in advancing arguments that carbon rental should be adopted as policy.     

Climate change at the ecosystem scale: a 50-year record in New Hampshire

Observing the full range of climate change impacts at the local scale is difficult. Predicted rates of change are often small relative to interannual variability, and few locations have sufficiently comprehensive long-term records of environmental variables to enable researchers to observe the fine-scale patterns that may be important to understanding the influence of climate change on biological systems at the taxon, community, and ecosystem levels. We examined a 50-year meteorological and hydrological record from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, an intensively monitored Long-Term Ecological Research site. Of the examined climate metrics, trends in temperature were the most significant (ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 °C increase over 40–50 year records at 4 temperature stations), while analysis of precipitation and hydrologic data yielded mixed results. Regional records show generally similar trends over the same time period, though longer-term (70–102 year) trends are less dramatic. Taken together, the results from HBEF and the regional records indicate that the climate has warmed detectably over 50 years, with important consequences for hydrological processes. Understanding effects on ecosystems will require a diversity of metrics and concurrent ecological observations at a range of sites, as well as a recognition that ecosystems have existed in a directionally changing climate for decades, and are not necessarily in equilibrium with the current climate.     

Scalar Transport over Forested Hills

Numerical simulations of scalar transport in neutral flow over forested ridges are performed using both a 1.5-order mixing-length closure scheme and a large-eddy simulation. Such scalar transport (particularly of CO₂) has been a significant motivation for dynamical studies of forest canopy–atmosphere interactions. Results from the 1.5-order mixing-length simulations show that hills for which there is significant mean flow into and out of the canopy are more efficient at transporting scalars from the canopy to the boundary layer above. For the case with a source in the canopy this leads to lower mean concentrations of tracer within the canopy, although they can be very large horizontal variations over the hill. These variations are closed linked to flow separation and recirculation in the canopy and can lead to maximum concentrations near the separation point that exceed those over flat ground. Simple scaling arguments building on the analytical model of Finnigan and Belcher (Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 130:1–29, 2004) successfully predict the variations in scalar concentration near the canopy top over a range of hills. Interestingly this analysis suggests that variations in the components of the turbulent transport term, rather than advection, give rise to the leading order variations in scalar concentration. The scaling arguments provide a quantitative measure of the role of advection, and suggest that for smaller/steeper hills and deeper/sparser canopies advection will be more important. This agrees well with results from the numerical simulations. A large-eddy simulation is used to support the results from the mixing-length closure model and to allow more detailed investigation of the turbulent transport of scalars within and above the canopy. Scalar concentration profiles are very similar in both models, despite the fact that there are significant differences in the turbulent transport, highlighted by the strong variations in the turbulent Schmidt number both in the vertical and across the hill in the large-eddy simulation that are not represented in the mixing-length model.     

Global and regional coupled climate sensitivity to the parameterization of rainfall interception

A coupled land?Catmosphere model is used to explore the impact of seven commonly used canopy rainfall interception schemes on the simulated climate. Multiple 30-year simulations are conducted for each of the seven methods and results are analyzed in terms of the mean climatology and the probability density functions (PDFs) of key variables based on daily data. Results show that the method used for canopy interception strongly affects how rainfall is partitioned between canopy evaporation and throughfall. However, the impact on total evaporation is much smaller, and the impact on rainfall and air temperature is negligible. Similarly, the PDFs of canopy evaporation and transpiration for six selected regions are strongly affected by the method used for canopy interception, but the impact on total evaporation, temperature and precipitation is negligible. Our results show that the parameterization of rainfall interception is important to the surface hydrometeorology, but the seven interception parameterizations examined here do not cause a statistically significant impact on the climate of the coupled model. We suggest that broad scale climatological differences between coupled climate models are not likely the result of how interception is parameterized. This conclusion is inconsistent with inferences derived from earlier uncoupled simulations, or simulations using very simplified climate models.     

A diagnostic study of two heavy rainfall events in South China

South China is prone to heavy rainfall which may occur both in the pre-monsoon and the monsoon season. The responsible synoptic systems and the water-vapor sources, however, can be substantially different for different seasons. In this study, we aim to develop conceptual models for typical heavy rainfall events in South China through diagnostic case studies. A number of events have been analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR data, but the discussions here are focused on two representative events, one for the pre-monsoon season and the other for the monsoon season. Both events are found to be associated with extensive moist convective instability in the lower part of the troposphere. For the pre-monsoon case the instability was much weaker and the uplift of the warm moist air was provided by the cold air intrusion related to a weak cold front. The moist potential vorticity theory can be used to explain the increase of vorticity and vertical velocity in the lower part of the troposphere. For the monsoon event, the lower troposphere was extensively and strongly unstable and the upward motion was provided by the shear of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) which appeared to be driven, at least partially driven, by the upper-level jet. In both events, LLJ played a major role in not only providing the dynamic conditions but also the supply of water vapor for heavy rainfall in South China. The diagnostic results presented in this study provide a useful guidance for future numerical simulations.     

La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.