Simulation of the effect of doubled atmospheric CO2 on the climate of northern and central California

A Local Climate Model (LCM) is described that can provide a high-resolution (10 km) simulation of climate resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. A canonicalregression function is used to compute the monthly temperature (mean of daily-maximum-temperature) and precipitation for any point, given a set of predictor variables. Predictor variables represent the influence of terrain, sea-surface temperature (SST), windfields, CO₂ concentration, and solar radiation on climate. The canonical-regression function is calibrated and validated using empirical windfield, SST, and climate data from stations in the western U.S. To illustrate an application of the LCM, the climate of northern and central California is simulated for a doubled CO₂ (600 ppmv) and a control scenario (300 ppmv CO₂). Windfields and SSTs used to compute predictor variables are taken from general circulation model simulations for these two scenarios. LCM solutions indicate that doubling CO₂ will result in a 3 C° increase in January temperature, a 2 C° increase in July temperature, a 16 mm (37%) increase in January precipitation, and a 3 mm (46%) increase in July precipitation.     

River channel adjustments downstream from channelization works in England and Wales

Relatively little attention has been given to river channel adjustments that occur downstream from channelization works. This study is concerned with the nature of channel adjustments downstream from a total of 46 channelization works located in low and high energy environments in England and Wales. Channel changes are identified principally by the method of field survey and by reconstructing the original positions of eroded beds and banks. Use is also made of maps, aerial photographs, and engineering drawings of different dates and the technique of space-for-time substitution is applied. Enlargement of channel cross-sections through erosion had occurred downstream from a variety of types, sizes, and dates of channelization works. The maximum increase of channel size was 153 per cent. Out of a total of 14 sites with enlarged channel cross-sections, seven had undergone a change of width only, at a further three width increased rather than depth, and at the remaining four sites depth increases were dominant. These sites all have relatively high stream powers. Factors causing spatial variation of erosion included tree roots locally binding bank sediments and the occurrence of bends. Planform change had taken place at only one site. A further three high stream power sites had downstream reaches incised into bedrock and therefore did not exhibit adjustment. Channel enlargement is explained in terms of increased flood flows downstream from channelization works causing higher stream velocities, which in turn cause erosion, thereby increasing channel width and/or depth. Examination of flow records for 35 stations revealed flood events which would formerly have spread overbank but are now confined by the channelization works and are therefore likely to alter downstream flows. At sites with downstream change it is proposed that the energy of increased flows was sufficient to exceed a threshold required for erosion of perimeter sediments. By contrast the absence of change at a majority of sites in low energy lowland areas could be a reflection of both the incompetence of increased flows to erode and resistance provided by perimeter sediments. Sites with erosion features appear not to have yet attained new equilibrium conditions.     

Possible effects of pre-existing basement topography on thrust fault ramping

Finite-element models show that one way in which thrust ramps may arise is through the mechanical interaction between basement and overlying sediments. In the simplest case, shear coupling between a planar basement—sediment contact causes the differential stresses in the sediments to die out with depth and distance from the applied load. For such cases, curved thrust faults may result if the strength of the rock is exceeded. Basement topography may also affect the location and shape of ramps by acting as a stress concentrator, by producing a stress shadow and by changing principal stress orientations. Modeling suggests that whether or not these basement topographic features cause ramping will depend on the height and angularity of the feature as well as the rock types that overlie it.Under the assumption of linear elasticity and for given boundary conditions, the Poisson's ratio plays an important role in determining the orientation and magnitude of the principal stresses. Calculations using experimentally measured Poisson's ratios predict that the earliest maximum compressive stress directions should be nearly vertical in the more cratonward portions of thrust belts. However, the stress directions which are inferred to have occurred earliest in this part of thrust belts are nearly horizontal. This suggests that non-elastic or ductile processes have an effect on the propagation of thrust faults.     

Iron metal production in silicate melts through the direct reduction of Fe(II) by Ti(III), Cr(II), and Eu(II)

The production of metallic iron in silicate melts by the chemical reactions, 2Ti³⁺_(melt) + Fe²⁺_(melt) → 2Ti⁴⁺_(melt) + Fe⁰_(crystal)2Cr²⁺_(melt) + Fe²⁺_(melt) → 2Cr³⁺_(melt) + Fe⁰_(crystal)2Eu²⁺_(melt)+ Fe²⁺_(melt) → 2Eu³⁺_(melt) + Fe⁰_(crystal) has been demonstrated under experimental conditions in a simplified basaltic liquid, Such reactions may occur in lunar basalts and other reduced systems, and, thus, may aid in the understanding of the reduced nature of lunar basalts. The reactions were studied in a glass-forming Na-Ca-Mg-Al-silicate composition at a melt temperature of 1250°C and an imposed oxygen fugacity at the C/CO buffer (1 atm total pressure). Microtitrations of individually-doped samples were used in the quantitative assessment of their redox ratios and for the calibration of visible and near-infrared spectral absorptions. These spectral absorptions were then applied to the evaluation of the mutual redox interactions in dual-doped samples.     

An experimental investigation of high-temperature interactions between seawater and rhyolite,andesite, basalt and peridotite

Natural seawater was allowed to react with rhyolite, andesite, basalt, and peridotite at 200°–500° C, and 1,000 bars at water/rock mass ratios of 5 and 50 in order to investigate the effects of rock type, water/rock ratio, and temperature on solution chemistry and alteration mineralogy. The results indicate that interactions of seawater with various igneous rocks are similar in the production of a hydrous Mg-silicate and anhydrite as major alteration products. Fluids involved in the interactions lose Mg to alteration phases while leaching Fe, Mn, and Si from the rocks. The pH of the solutions is primarily controlled by Mg-OH-silicate formation and therefore varies with Mg and Si concentration of the system. Other reactions which involve Mg (such as Mg-Ca exchange) or which produce free H⁺, cause major differences in fluid chemistry between different seawater/ rock systems. High water/rock ratio systems (50/1) are generally more acidic and more efficient in leaching than low ratio systems (5/1), due to relatively more seawater Mg available for Mgsilicate production. The experiments show that large-scale seawater/rock interaction could exert considerable control on the chemistry of seawater, as well as producing large bodies of altered rock with associated ore-deposits.Active plate margins of convergence or divergence are suitable environments for hydrothermal systems due to the concurrence of igneous activity, tectonism, and a nearby water reservoir (seawater or connate water). The experimental data indicate that seawater interactions with igneous host rocks could generate many of the features of ore-deposits such as the Kuroko deposits of Japan, the Raul Mine of Peru, the Bleida deposit of Morocco, and deposits associated with ophiolites. Serpentinization of peridotite and alteration of igneous complexes associated with plate margins can also be explained by seawater interaction with the cooling rock. Geothermal energy production could benefit from experimental investigations of hot water/rock systems by development of chemical, temperature, and pressure control systems to maximize the lifetime of hydrothermal flow.     

Granitic plutonism as an indicator of microplates in the Palaeozoic of central and eastern Maine

Oxygen and strontium isotope ratios have been used to characterize source regions for granitic magmas for a transect across the northern Appalachian orogen in central and eastern Maine. The northwestern plutons (Katahdin and Seboeis) have δ¹⁸O values of 10.3–13.3 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.7083 and 0.7066, respectively. The central plutons (Bottle Lake and Center Pond) have lower δ¹⁸O values (8.2–9.9) and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7043–0.7055). The southeastern plutons (Lucerne and Deblois) have δ¹⁸O values (9.0–11.0) but initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7077 and 0.7041, respectively) which are intermediate between the northwestern and central plutons.Source models derived from these results and other petrological and geochemical data reflect the juxtaposition of discrete source regions by transcurrent faulting, which may be related to oblique plate motions. This model illustrates the importance of microplate accretion in the Palaeozoic history of the northern Appalachian orogen.     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.     

Three mechanisms of ore re-mobilisation during amphibolite facies metamorphism at the Montauban Zn–Pb–Au–Ag deposit

The relative importance of mechanical re-mobilisation, hydrothermal dissolution and re-precipitation, and sulphide melting in controlling redistribution of metals during concurrent metamorphism and deformation is evaluated at the middle amphibolite facies Montauban deposit in Canada. As at many other deposits, ductile deformation was important in driving mechanical re-mobilisation of massive sulphides from limb regions into hinge regions of large-scale folds and is thus the most important for controlling the economics of Pb and Zn distribution. Two possible stages of hydrothermally driven re-mobilisation are discussed, each of which produces characteristically different alteration assemblages. Prograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation is driven by pyrite de-sulphidation and concurrent chlorite dehydration and is thus an internally driven process. At Montauban, the H₂S-rich fluid generated through this process allowed re-mobilisation of gold into the wall rock, where it was deposited in response to sulphidation of Fe Mg silicates. Retrograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation is an externally driven process, whereby large volumes of fluids from outside the deposit may dissolve and re-precipitate metals, and cause hydration of silicate minerals. This second hydrothermally driven process is not recognised at Montauban. Sulphide melting occurred as temperatures neared the peak metamorphic conditions. Melting initiated in the massive sulphides through arsenopyrite breakdown, and a small volume of melt was subsequently re-mobilised into the wall rock. Trace element partitioning and fractional crystallisation of this melt generated a precious metal-rich fractionate, which remained mobile until well after peak metamorphism. Thus, prograde hydrothermal re-mobilisation and sulphide melting were the most important mechanisms for controlling the distribution of Au and Ag.