Orbital stability of systems of closely-spaced planets

An investigation of the stability of systems of 1 M_⊕ (Earth-mass) bodies orbiting a Sun-like star has been conducted for virtual times reaching 10 billion years. For the majority of the tests, a symplectic integrator with a fixed timestep of between 1 and 10 days was employed; however, smaller timesteps and a Bulirsch-Stoer integrator were also selectively utilized to increase confidence in the results. In most cases, the planets were started on initially coplanar, circular orbits, and the longitudinal initial positions of neighboring planets were widely separated. The ratio of the semimajor axes of consecutive planets in each system was approximately uniform (so the spacing between consecutive planets increased slowly in terms of distance from the star). The stability time for a system was taken to be the time at which the orbits of two or more planets crossed. Our results show that, for a given class of system (e.g., three 1 M_⊕ planets), orbit crossing times vary with planetary spacing approximately as a power law over a wide range of separation in semimajor axis. Chaos tests indicate that deviations from this power law persist for changed initial longitudes and also for small but non-trivial changes in orbital spacing. We find that the stability time increases more rapidly at large initial orbital separations than the power-law dependence predicted from moderate initial orbital separations. Systems of five planets are less stable than systems of three planets for a specified semimajor axis spacing. Furthermore, systems of less massive planets can be packed more closely, being about as stable as 1 M_⊕ planets when the radial separation between planets is scaled using the mutual Hill radius. Finally, systems with retrograde planets can be packed substantially more closely than prograde systems with equal numbers of planets.     

The clustering and host haloes of galaxy mergers at high redshift

High-resolution simulations of cosmological structure formation indicate that dark matter substructure in dense environments, such as groups and clusters, may survive for a long time. These dark matter subhaloes are the likely hosts of galaxies. We examine the small-scale spatial clustering of subhalo major mergers at high redshift using high-resolution N -body simulations of cosmological volumes. Recently merged, massive subhaloes exhibit enhanced clustering on scales  ∼100–300  h ⁻¹ kpc  , relative to all subhaloes of the same infall mass, for a short time after a major merger (<500 Myr). The small-scale clustering enhancement is smaller for lower mass subhaloes, which also show a deficit on scales just beyond the excess. Haloes hosting recent subhalo mergers tend to have more subhaloes; for massive subhaloes, the excess is stronger and it tends to increase for the most massive host haloes. The subhalo merger fraction is independent of halo mass for the scales we probe. In terms of satellite and central subhaloes, the merger increase in small-scale clustering for massive subhaloes arises from recently merged massive central subhaloes having an enhanced satellite population. Our mergers are defined via their parent infall mass ratios. Subhaloes experiencing major mass gains also exhibit a small-scale clustering enhancement, but these correspond to two-body interactions leading to two final subhaloes, rather than subhalo coalescence.     

2XMMi J225036.9+573154 – a new eclipsing AM Her binary discovered using XMM–Newton

We report the discovery of an eclipsing polar, 2XMMi J225036.9+573154, using XMM–Newton . It was discovered by searching the light curves in the 2XMMi catalogue for objects showing X-ray variability. Its X-ray light curve shows a total eclipse of the white dwarf by the secondary star every 174 min. An extended pre-eclipse absorption dip is observed in soft X-rays at  φ= 0.8–0.9  , with evidence for a further dip in the soft X-ray light curve at  φ∼ 0.4  . Further, X-rays are seen from all orbital phases (apart from the eclipse) which make it unusual amongst eclipsing polars. We have identified the optical counterpart, which is faint  ( r = 21)  , and shows a deep eclipse (>3.5 mag in white light). Its X-ray spectrum does not show a distinct soft X-ray component which is seen in many, but not all, polars. Its optical spectrum shows Hα in emission for a fraction of the orbital period.     

Resolving cosmic structure formation with the Millennium-II Simulation

We present the Millennium-II Simulation (MS-II), a very large N -body simulation of dark matter evolution in the concordance Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. The MS-II assumes the same cosmological parameters and uses the same particle number and output data structure as the original Millennium Simulation (MS), but was carried out in a periodic cube one-fifth the size  (100  h ⁻¹ Mpc)  with five times better spatial resolution (a Plummer equivalent softening of  1.0  h ⁻¹ kpc  ) and with 125 times better mass resolution (a particle mass of  6.9 × 10⁶  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  ). By comparing results at MS and MS-II resolution, we demonstrate excellent convergence in dark matter statistics such as the halo mass function, the subhalo abundance distribution, the mass dependence of halo formation times, the linear and non-linear autocorrelations and power spectra, and halo assembly bias. Together, the two simulations provide precise results for such statistics over an unprecedented range of scales, from haloes similar to those hosting Local Group dwarf spheroidal galaxies to haloes corresponding to the richest galaxy clusters. The 'Milky Way' haloes of the Aquarius Project were selected from a lower resolution version of the MS-II and were then resimulated at much higher resolution. As a result, they are present in the MS-II along with thousands of other similar mass haloes. A comparison of their assembly histories in the MS-II and in resimulations of 1000 times better resolution shows detailed agreement over a factor of 100 in mass growth. We publicly release halo catalogues and assembly trees for the MS-II in the same format within the same archive as those already released for the MS.     

Exomoon Simulations

We introduce and describe our newly developed code that simulates light curves and radial velocity curves for arbitrary transiting exoplanets and its satellite. The most important feature of the program is the calculation of radial velocity curves and the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect in such systems. We discuss the possibilities for detecting the exomoons taking the abilities of Extremely Large Telescopes into account. We show that satellites may be detected also by their RM effect in the future, probably using less accurate measurements than promised by the current instrumental developments. Thus, RM effect will be an important observational tool in the exploration of exomoons.     

Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble

In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.