Hyper-velocity impact risk assessment and mitigation strategies in the context of future X-ray astronomy missions

Future X-ray astronomy missions will be based on instruments with apertures much larger than those used up to now. Therefore, the risk posed by hyper-velocity dust grains in the space environment to the onboard instrumentation will increase, especially when a larger aperture is combined with a longer focal length. Starting from the lessons learned from the XMM and Swift satellites, we review the question of hyper-velocity impacts and discuss the expected impact-rate, risk of damage and possible mitigation strategies in the context of LOFT, eROSITA and ATHENA.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cryogenic powderization of Triassic dolostones in the Buda Hills, Hungary

Disintegration of dolostones to dolomite powder (powderization) was a widespread phenomenon in Triassic dolostones of the Buda Hills, where the areal extent of powdered dolostones is large compared to similar occurrences elsewhere in the world. In the Buda Hills, dolostone disintegration proceeded in four stages that correspond to a gradual decrease in particle size, that is, from the parent dolostone to (1) crackle breccia; via (2) mosaic breccia (diameter <2 cm); via (3) mosaic breccia blocks ‘floating’ in dolomite powder; to (4) dolomite powder (diameter 100–300 μm). Stable isotope ratios and trace element compositions of dolomite remained constant throughout these stages, and there are no indications of dissolution in most locations, suggesting that disintegration was predominantly a mechanical process. Combining these findings with the geological history of the region, and supported by a simple freezing/thawing experiment and pertinent experimental studies on weathering of building stones, it appears that powderization in the Buda Hills was caused by repeated freeze–thaw cycles during and/or after the Pleistocene glaciations. Subaerial exposure under cold climate conditions involves multiple freeze–thaw cycles that create mechanical stresses in the rock framework related to the opposing thermal expansion of rock and water that freezes and of ice that liquefies. This process is herewith called ‘cryogenic powderization’. Our data further suggest that the synergy of four factors promoted dolostone powderization in the Buda Hills: (1) tectonics, which created a pervasive fracture network; (2) intercrystalline porosity of the dolostone; (3) relatively high water saturation; and (4) subaerial exposure under cold climate conditions.     

Interdecadal change of interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO

A significant interdecadal climate shift of interannual variability and predictability of two types of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP)-type and Modoki or central Pacific (CP) type, are investigated. Using the retrospective forecasts of six-state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for December–January–February during the period of 1972–2005 along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data, we examine the climate regime shift that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and how the shift affected interannual variability and predictability of two types of ENSO for the two periods of 1972–1988 (hereafter PRE) and 1989–2005 (hereafter POST). The result first shows substantial interdecadal changes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) in mean state and variability over the western and central Pacific attributable to the significant warming trend in the POST period. In the POST period, the SST variability increased (decreased) significantly over the western (eastern) Pacific. The MME realistically reproduces the observed interdecadal changes with 1- and 4-month forecast lead time. It is found that the CP-type ENSO was more prominent and predictable during the POST than the PRE period while there was no apparent difference in the variability and predictability of the EP-type ENSO between two periods. Note that the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the Pacific SST during the POST period represents the CP-type ENSO but that during the PRE period captures the ENSO transition phase. The MME better predicts the former than the latter. We also investigate distinctive regional impacts associated with the two types of ENSO during the two periods.     

Temporal variation of mineralogy and petrology in cognate gabbroic enclaves at Arenal volcano,Costa Rica

Gabbroic enclaves ejected during the current eruption phase (A-1) and during the latest prehistoric eruption phase (A-2) of Arenal Volcano show systematic variations in texture, mineralogy and composition as a function of host rock chemistry and timing of eruption. The most differentiated enclaves occur in the more differentiated A-2 lavas. Enclaves in the A-1 volcanics are consistently less evolved. Within the current A-1 eruption, the most mafic enclaves are amphibole-bearing rocks that were erupted during the first 2–3 years of activity (1968–1970). These enclaves occur in the most differentiated A-1 volcanics and are not in equilibrium with their host rocks. They crystallized from a hydrous melt that was slightly more mafic than anything erupted during the current cycle. We interpret the enclaves as sidewall crystallization products of a melt, possibly a high-alumina basalt, that was immediately parental to the A-1 lavas. Enclaves that occur in A-1 rocks erupted after 1970 and all of the A-2 enclaves are amphibole-free and less mafic than the early A-1 enclaves. Their chemistry suggests that they formed during the early to intermediate crystallization of their host lavas. None of the enclaves contain minerals that might have equilibrated with a primary, mantle-derived melt. Geothermometry is consistent with geochemistry, with amphibole-bearing A-1 enclaves yielding the highest pyroxene temperatures (ave. 1090° C) and A-2 enclaves the lowest (ave. 1030° C). Geobarometry suggests mid- to upper crustal depths for the crystallization of all enclaves. The enclaves are cognate and reflect pre-eruptive crystallization of Arenal magmas. They record evolution from a hydrous, basaltic magma to the drier basaltic andesites that characterize the current eruption. Volatiles appear to have been lost due to depressurization during the slow ascent of the magmas through the upper levels of the crust following the initial explosive eruption. Volatile loss and depressurization resulted in the destabilization and the progressive resorption of amphibole. The A-2 lavas may represent the long-term fractionation products of basaltic andesite magmas similar in composition to the A-1 lavas. Anorthitic plagioclase, commonly thought of as a phase stabilized by high Ca/Na and high water pressure, continued to crystallize in a system with relatively low Ca/Na and which had dehydrated and/or depressurized to the point at which amphibole was no longer stable. This suggests that compositional characteristics other than high Ca/Na or high water content may have stabilized the anorthite in the basaltic and basaltic andesite melts at Arenal. We speculate that the high-alumina content of the Arenal magmas may be the stabilizing factor.     

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.     

Idealized Mesoscale Model Simulations of Open Cellular Convection Over the Sea

The atmospheric conditions during an observed case of open cellular convection over the North Sea were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model. Wind, temperature and water vapour mixing ratio profiles from the WRF simulation were used to initialize an idealized version of the model, which excluded the effects of topography, surface inhomogeneities and large-scale weather forcing. Cells with an average diameter of 17.4 km developed. Simulations both with and without a capping inversion were made, and the cell-scale kinetic energy budget was calculated for each case. By considering all sources of explicit diffusion in the model, the budgets were balanced. In comparison with previous work based on observational studies, the use of three-dimensional, gridded model data afforded the possibility of calculating all terms in the budgets, which showed that the important terms in the budgets were buoyancy, pressure balance and inter-scale transfer to subgrid scales. Cells were also composited to calculate the average cell-scale flow and each of the budget terms on two-dimensional cross-sections through the cells, parallel and perpendicular to the mean wind direction.     

The Impact of Climate on Holiday Destination Choice

The holiday destination choice is analysed for tourists from 45 countries, representing all continents and all climates. Tourists are deterred by distance, political instability and poverty, and attracted to coasts. Tourists prefer countries with a sunny yet mild climate, shun climates that are too hot or too cold. A country's tourists' aversion for poverty and distance can be predicted by that country's average per capita income. The preferred holiday climate is the same for all tourists, independent of the home climate. However, tourists from hotter climates have more pronounced preferences.