Annual trace element cycles in calcite–aragonite speleothems: evidence of drought in the western Mediterranean 1200–1100 yr BP

Each of two calcitic stalagmites from Grotte de Clamouse, Herault, southern France, displays a discrete aragonite layer dated at around 1100 yr BP. The layer of fanning aragonite ray crystals is immediately preceded by calcite with Mg and Sr compositions that are uniquely high for the past 3 kyr. Trace element compositions close to the boundary between original aragonite and calcite are consistent with quasi‐equilibrium partitioning of trace elements between the phases. Study of modern dripwaters demonstrates that pronounced covariation of Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios in dripwater occurs owing to large amounts of calcite precipitation upflow of the drips that fed the stalagmites. Trace element to Ca ratios are enhanced during seasonally dry periods. Ion microprobe data demonstrate a pronounced covariation of trace elements, including Mg and Sr in calcite, and Sr, U and Ba in aragonite. The mean peak spacing is close to the long‐term mean of annual growth rates determined by differences in U‐series ages and so the trace element peaks are interpreted as annual. The trace element chemistry of the stalagmites on annual to inter‐annual scales thus directly reflects the amounts of prior calcite precipitation, interpreted as an index of aridity. The longer‐term context is a multi‐decadal period of aridity (1200–1100 yr BP) possibly correlated with an analogous episode in Central America. The arid period culminated in the nucleation of aragonite, but within a decade was followed by a return to precursor conditions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Heavy Metal Deposition by Mosses in the Vicinity of Industrial Sites

At four industrial regions, heavy metal concentrations and calculated depositions were investigated by sampling and analysing mosses. In each region, a special spatial pattern of heavy metal concentrations was detected, reflecting the industrial processes. Metals most likely originating from the industrial sites showed an exponential decrease of concentrations and depositions with increasing distance from the pollution source. The exponential deposition pattern was in some cases modified by a series of natural factors, like the main direction of winds or orographic conditions. The distance at which deposition dropped to background values was up to 20 km. Beside the fact that the moss-metho is a useful tool for deposition measurement in the vicinity of stationary sources, some improvements for using this method are discussed, highlighting factors such as a proper calculation of deposition from concentrations, or the better knowledge of correlations between heavy metal concentrations in mosses and effects on human health.     

Potential changes in extremes and links with the Southern Annular Mode as simulated by a multi-model ensemble

We assess the likely changes in climate extremes under enhanced greenhouse gases over the southern extratropics, with emphasis in southern South America and sub-Antarctic seas, through the analysis of extreme indices measured from models participating in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. We discuss how the anthropogenic climate change under A1B scenario influences both the patterns of mean change of extreme indices and the likelihood of occurrence of severe extreme indices. The likelihood of occurrence of a year with a large number of days with “warm” minimum temperatures is estimated to increase by a factor of 4 by the end of this century over most of the southern extratropics. By that time, the risk of “severe” precipitation intensity is projected to rise in most areas with the exception of the subtropical anticyclones, which experience particularly strong drying. Over the Southern Ocean this likelihood has increased to over 60%. Corresponding estimates of the changing likelihood for very long dry spells show a banded structure with positive ratios to the north of about 50° S and negative ratios in the sub Antarctic seas. In southern South America this risk about doubled between present and future climates. Then, we explore if the Southern Annular Mode influences the occurrence of severe extreme indices during the period 2070–2099. Its positive phase inhibits the extremely warm minimum temperatures in the Southern Ocean, with the exception of the eastern Bellingshausen Sea, and favors severe frost days to the north of the Ross Sea. Temperature indices show very little change induced by the SAM to the north of 50° S. Severe dry spells are inhibited during the positive phase along the sub Antarctic seas, while the mid-latitudes, including most of Patagonia, show the opposite behaviour. The Southern Ocean reveals a non-uniform distribution with both increases and decreases in the occurrence of heavier precipitation during positive SAM.     

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.     

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.     

A Minimal Spanning Tree algorithm for source detection in γ-ray images

We developed a source detection algorithm based on the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST), that is a graph-theoretical method useful for finding clusters in a given set of points. This algorithm is applied to γ-ray bi-dimensional images where the points correspond to the arrival direction of photons, and the possible sources are associated with the regions where they clusterize. Some filters to select these clusters and to reduce the spurious detections are introduced. An empirical study of the statistical properties of MST on random fields is carried out in order to derive some criteria to estimate the best filter values. We also introduce two parameters useful to verify the goodness of candidate sources. To show how the MST algorithm works in practice, we present an application to an EGRET observation of the Virgo field, at high Galactic latitude and with a low and rather uniform background, in which several sources are detected.     

Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.     

Orbital and mission planning constraints for the deflection of NEOs impacting on Earth

This paper is the third in a series. Paper 1 presented the results of numerical modeling of deflections of NEOs in route of collision with the Earth. The model was applied to a variety of dynamical cases including both asteroidal and cometary NEOs. Paper 2 introduced the concept of “distributed deflection,” i.e., the possibility to provide the ΔV necessary to deflect an object with a succession of maneuvers each of which would have been insufficient per se to obtain the desired result. In both papers no assumptions were made on the physical composition and structure of the NEO, nor on the details of the possible deflection maneuvers from the point of view of mission analysis. Moreover, ΔV-plots were computed assuming only along-track impulses (both in the positive and negative directions), because it is easy to demonstrate that in general this is energetically the most favorable configuration. Also in the present paper no assumptions were made on the physical composition and structure of the NEO, even if order of magnitude considerations are made on the physical feasibility of a deflection, in terms of the internal strength of the NEO. We present here the results of an investigation on the mission requirements necessary to deflect an object (or contribute to a succession of deflecting maneuvers) in terms of accessibility of the spacecraft terminal orbit from Earth with the current launchers.