A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation to the Pareto front of optimal short-term and long-term trade-offs. However, such methods rely on a large number of reservoir simulations and scale poorly with the number of objectives subject to optimization. Consequently, the large-scale nature of production optimization severely limits applications to real-life scenarios. More practical alternatives include ad hoc hierarchical switching schemes. As a drawback, such methods lack robustness due to unclear convergence properties and do not naturally generalize to cases of more than two objectives. Also, as this paper shows, the hierarchical formulation may skew the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical approaches, the method is guaranteed to converge to a Pareto optimal point. Also, the LS method is designed to properly balance multiple objectives, independently of Pareto front’s shape. As such, the method poses a practical alternative to a posteriori methods in situations where the frontier is intractable to generate.     

Short chain ladderanes: Oxic biodegradation products of anammox lipids

Anammox, the microbial anaerobic oxidation of ammonium by nitrite to produce dinitrogen gas, has been recognized as a key process in both the marine and freshwater nitrogen cycles, and found to be a major sink for fixed inorganic nitrogen in the oceans. Ladderane lipids are unique anammox bacterial membrane lipids that have been used as biomarkers for anammox bacteria in recent and past environmental settings. However, the fate of ladderane lipids during diagenesis is as of yet unknown. In this study, we performed oxic degradation experiments (at 20-100 °C) with anammox bacterial biomass to simulate early diagenetic processes occurring in the water column and at the sediment-water interface. Abundances of C₁₈ and C₂₀ ladderane lipids decreased with increasing temperatures, testifying to their labile nature. The most abundant products formed were ladderane lipids with a shorter alkyl side chain (C₁₄ and C₁₆ ladderane fatty acids), which was unambiguously established using two-dimensional NMR techniques on an isolated C₁₄-[3]-ladderane fatty acid. The most pronounced production of these short-chain lipids was at 40 °C, suggesting that degradation of ladderane lipids was microbially mediated, likely through a β-oxidation pathway. An HPLC-MS/MS method was developed for the detection of these ladderane alteration products in environmental samples and positively tested on various sediments. This showed that the ladderanes formed during degradation experiments also naturally occur in the marine environment. Thus, short-chain ladderane lipids may complement the original longer-chain ladderane lipids as suitable biomarkers for the detection of anammox processes in past depositional environments.     

Doubtful Events Reported in Current Italian Earthquake Catalogues: The Medieval Earthquakes of Subiaco (Central Italy)

Within the framework of a study of the seismicity of the Aniene Valley (Central Italy), we analysed the medieval earthquakes of Subiaco (1216, 1227, 1299), the largest events reported for the area. Our main goal was to investigate some doubtful events reported in earthquake catalogues and, as such, currently utilised for seismic hazard estimates. A careful screening of the oldest available sources and their filiation pattern up to the present pointed out the uncertainty on the date and nature of these phenomena. A multidisciplinary approach based on the joint analysis of archaeological, geomorphologic and historical evidence allowed us to propose new interpretations concerning these events and their significance for the assessment of seismic hazard in the Aniene Valley. The main conclusion is that the dates of the 1216 and 1227 events are fairly unsupported. In particular, the 1216 earthquake could be dated back to between AD 1159 and 1181.     

The study of metal contamination in urban topsoils of Mexico City using GIS

This research presents and discusses information concerning the spatial distribution of heavy metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Ba, Co, Cr, Ni and V) in the urban environments of Mexico City using geographical information system and statistical analysis. Superficial soil samples (n = 146) were analyzed. The highest contamination indices were found in the north and center zone of the metropolitan area. In contrast, the surrounding rural fields show a lower impact grade. The higher concentrations of Pb, Cu, Zn and Ba were observed as being related to high vehicular traffic, nevertheless other elements such as Co, Cr, Ni and V do not show anthropogenic influence and their content can be attributed to the parental rock. The results are compared with previous surveys carried out in 2003 in order to evaluate temporal deposition trends. No changes were found on reported concentrations except for Cu and Zn, whose concentration has increased in later years. The results suggest that spatial distribution analysis and results in comparison with previous studies could be useful for the management and sustainable development of the metropolitan area of Mexico City.     

Behavior of Gd-DTPA in simulated bank filtration

The behavior of Gd-DTPA during bank filtration was simulated in a 30 m column filled with Pleistocene sand and flushed by surface water from a lakeside in Berlin, Germany. The surface water is about a 1:1 mixture of river water and effluents from a sewage treatment plant. Throughout 34 days this water was continuously spiked with Gd-DTPA at a level of 60 μg/L. The broad plateau of the Gd-DTPA pulse declined by 15.4% within 34 days by transmetallation. Nine percentage of the total decline is caused by Y and rare earth elements; the remaining part is attributed to Cu²⁺ which is the most influential metal in surface water. All other metals also contributing to transmetallation are combined with Cu to Cu equivalents because only the rate constant of transmetallation of Cu²⁺ is known. The analytical results of the column effluents prove the pseudo-first-order kinetics of transmetallation based on reversible sorption of metals by pools in the column sediment and disprove biodegradation at noticeable levels. The mass ratio of water to tracer is <10¹⁰.     

Experimental study of the K2ZrSi3O9 (wadeite)–K2TiSi3O9 and K2(Zr,Ti)Si3O9–phlogopite systems at 2–3 GPa

Experiments ranging from 2 to 3 GPa and 800 to 1300 °C and at 0.15 GPa and 770 °C were performed to investigate the stability and mutual solubility of the K₂ZrSi₃O₉ (wadeite) and K₂TiSi₃O₉ cyclosilicates under upper mantle conditions. The K₂ZrSi₃O₉–K₂TiSi₃O₉ join exhibits complete miscibility in the P–T interval investigated. With increasing degree of melting the solid solution becomes progressively enriched in Zr, indicating that K₂ZrSi₃O₉ is the more refractory end member. At 2 GPa, in the more complex K₂ZrSi₃O₉–K₂TiSi₃O₉–K₂Mg₆Al₂Si₆O₂₀(OH)₄ system, the presence of phlogopite clearly limits the extent of solid solution of the cyclosilicate to more Zr-rich compositions [Zr/(Zr + Ti) > 0.85], comparable to wadeite found in nature, with TiO₂ partitioning strongly into the coexisting mica and/or liquid. However, at 1200 °C, with increasing pressure from 2 to 3 GPa, the partitioning behaviour of TiO₂ changes in favour of the cyclosilicate, with Zr/(Zr + Ti) of the K₂(Zr,Ti)Si₃O₉ phase decreasing from ∼0.9 to ∼0.6. The variation in the Ti content of the coexisting phlogopite is related to its degree of melting to forsterite and liquid, following the major substitution ^VITi+^VI□=2^VIMg. Received: 26 January 1999 / Accepted: 10 January 2000     

A review of the LATEX project: mesoscale to submesoscale processes in a coastal environment

The main objective of the LAgrangian Transport EXperiment (LATEX) project was to study the influence of coastal mesoscale and submesoscale physical processes on circulation dynamics, cross-shelf exchanges, and biogeochemistry in the western continental shelf of the Gulf of Lion, Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. LATEX was a five-year multidisciplinary project based on the combined analysis of numerical model simulations and multi-platform field experiments. The model component included a ten-year realistic 3D numerical simulation, with a 1 km horizontal resolution over the gulf, nested in a coarser 3 km resolution model. The in situ component involved four cruises, including a large-scale multidisciplinary campaign with two research vessels in 2010. This review concentrates on the physics results of LATEX, addressing three main subjects: (1) the investigation of the mesoscale to submesoscale processes. The eddies are elliptic, baroclinic, and anticyclonic; the strong thermal and saline front is density compensated. Their generation processes are studied; (2) the development of sampling strategies for their direct observations. LATEX has implemented an adaptive strategy Lagrangian tool, with a reference software available on the web, to perform offshore campaigns in a Lagrangian framework; (3) the quantification of horizontal mixing and cross-shelf exchanges. Lateral diffusivity coefficients, calculated in various ways including a novel technique, are in the range classically encountered for their associated scales. Cross-shelf fluxes have been calculated, after retrieving the near-inertial oscillation contribution. Further perspectives are discussed, especially for the ongoing challenge of studying submesoscale features remotely and from in situ data.     

A numerical study on seismic risk assessment of historic masonry towers: a case study in San Gimignano

After a brief introduction on the research project RiSEM (Seismic Risk of Monumental Buildings), the paper discusses on the seismic assessment of historic masonry towers according to the Italian “Guidelines for the assessment and mitigation of the seismic risk of the cultural heritage” that identifies an analysis methodology based on three different levels of evaluation, according to an increased knowledge of the structure. The RiSEM project aimed at developing and testing innovative and expeditious methodologies (i.e. either without or with a minimal direct contact with the masonry building) to evaluate all the main structural features of the monumental buildings required for the assessment of their seismic safety. As a relevant case study the “Town of Fine Towers”, San Gimignano (Italy), listed under the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Sites, was selected. The paper summarizes the analyses performed on one of the San Gimignano towers: the Coppi-Campatelli one. The seismic vulnerability of the tower was evaluated with reference to the above guidelines, and the paper reports and critically compares the results obtained for the three levels of evaluation there defined: LV1 (analysis at territorial level), LV2 (local analysis) and LV3 (global analysis).     

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.