Employment Trends in Geography,Part 1: Enrollment and Degree Patterns*

This paper is the first in a series of three papers dealing with the current and future labor market for geographers. It is based on a report prepared by the Association of American Geographers' (AAG) Employment Forecasting Committee to the National Research Council's (NRC) Rediscovering Geography Committee. This report provides a data-based analysis of the past and future supply of geographers, the current labor market conditions in the field, and the factors likely to influence the future demand for geographers (faculty hiring, geographic education initiatives, trends in private-sector jobs, etc.). Each year some 4,000 individuals receive degrees in geography from America's institutions of higher education. They, or some portion of them, make up the new supply of geographers entering the labor market. In the near future (up to five years), the availability of new geographers is related to the number of geography students now in the educational pipeline. Their current specialties, and the specialties of the programs from which they come, tell us about the types of skills and the kinds of interests to be held by future labor force entrants. In the longer term (five to ten years), the number of new geographers will be influenced by geographic education initiatives at the precollegiate level. More and better geographic instruction in elementary and secondary schools will expose more students to geography as a field of study and as a potential career path. The purposes of this paper are to (1) review degree and enrollment trends in geography, (2) assess the “trickle-up” effects of geographic education initiatives at the precollegiate level, and (3) investigate the characteristics of future supply as evidenced by the types of occupations for which geography departments are now preparing students.     

The origin of geochemical diversity of lunar mantle sources inferred from the combined U-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd isotope systematics of mare basalt 10017

The results of our combined U-Pb, Rb-Sr, and Sm-Nd isotope study of mare basalt 10017 contribute to the understanding of the petrogenetic processes involved in the origin of geochemical diversity in lunar mare basalt sources, as well as the U-Pb isotope systematics of the Moon. The Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and ²³⁸U-²⁰⁶Pb isotope systems yield concordant crystallization ages of 3.633 ± 0.057 Ga, 3.678 ± 0.069 Ga, and 3.616 ± 0.098 Ga, respectively. The ²³⁵U-²⁰⁷Pb isochron yields an older, though still concordant, age of 3.80 ± 0.12 Ga. Neither the ²⁰⁶Pb-²⁰⁷Pb system nor U-Pb concordia system yields an age for 10017 that is concordant with the age determined from the Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr, and ²³⁸U-²⁰⁶Pb systems. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 10017 is 0.69941 ± 7 and the initial ε_Nd is +3.2 ± 0.4. Initial Pb isotopic compositions, determined from the U-Pb isochrons, are ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 31 ± 11 and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 34 ± 15. Together, these initial Pb compositions constrain the μ value of the 10017 source to be 70 ± 30, assuming a single-stage Pb growth model. This is considerably lower than μ values typically estimated for mare basalt sources (∼100-600). Regardless, the μ values calculated for the sources of mare basalts, as well as other lunar samples, show a range that is larger than can be explained by fractionation of U from Pb solely by crystallization of silicate phases and ilmenite during magma ocean solidification and formation of lunar mantle sources. The U-Pb isotope systematics may reflect late-stage formation of a sulfide phase, which strongly fractionates Pb from U but has minimal effect on Rb/Sr or Sm/Nd compositions, during crystallization of the lunar magma ocean.     

Relationships Between Meteorological and Water Quality Variables and Fisheries-Independent White Shrimp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Litopenaeus setiferus</Emphasis>) Catch in the ACE Basin NERR,South Carolina

White shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) fisheries-independent and fisheries-dependent landings can be highly variable and may be related to environmental factors that influence growth, mortality, and survival. We used linear regression analysis to look for potential relationships between environmental and white shrimp catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data collected from the Ashepoo-Combahee-Edisto (ACE) Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR) for four critical months in the shrimp life cycle. This analysis used data from white shrimp fisheries-independent CPUE (2002 to 2014) and water quality and meteorological variables for August (juvenile), December (sub-adult), March (adult), and April (spawning adult). The results showed that shrimp CPUE was mainly correlated with water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen concentration collected through the ACE Basin NERR’s System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP), but offshore wind, precipitation, and intra-annual CPUEs also partially explained the variability in monthly CPUEs. Black gill prevalence was correlated with water temperature and salinity. Additionally, our analysis found that winter water temperatures of ≤11 °C were correlated with reduced shrimp abundance the following spring. Ultimately, managers would like to successfully predict white shrimp stock abundance throughout fishing seasons based on environmental conditions. This study is a first step in identifying the environmental variables that may be useful in predicting white shrimp CPUE in the South Atlantic Bight. The techniques employed here can serve as a basis for predicting and managing other wild annual fisheries stocks.     

Seismic risk assessment of a steel building supported on helical pile groups

Acta Geotechnica - Designing structures to be the least vulnerable within earthquake-prone areas is a serious challenge for structural engineers. One common and useful tool that structural...     

Water Table Depth Estimates over the Contiguous United States Using a Random Forest Model

Water table depth (WTD) has a substantial impact on the connection between groundwater dynamics and land surface processes. Due to the scarcity of WTD observations, physically-based groundwater models are growing in their ability to map WTD at large scales; however, they are still challenged to represent simulated WTD compared to well observations. In this study, we develop a purely data-driven approach to estimating WTD at continental scale. We apply a random forest (RF) model to estimate WTD over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on available WTD observations. The estimated WTD are in good agreement with well observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.96 (0.81 during testing), a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.93 (0.65 during testing), and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.87 m (15.31 m during testing). The location of each grid cell is rated as the most important feature in estimating WTD over most of the CONUS, which might be a surrogate for spatial information. In addition, the uncertainty of the RF model is quantified using quantile regression forests. High uncertainties are generally associated with locations having a shallow WTD. Our study demonstrates that the RF model can produce reasonable WTD estimates over most of the CONUS, providing an alternative to physics-based modeling for modeling large-scale freshwater resources. Since the CONUS covers many different hydrologic regimes, the RF model trained for the CONUS may be transferrable to other regions with a similar hydrologic regime and limited observations.     

Electron Microprobe/SIMS Determinations of Al in Olivine: Applications to Solar Wind,Pallasites and Trace Element Measurements

Electron probe microanalyser measurements of trace elements with high accuracy are challenging. Accurate Al measurements in olivine are required to calibrate SIMS implant reference materials for measurement of Al in the solar wind. We adopt a combined EPMA/SIMS approach that is useful for producing SIMS reference materials as well as for EPMA at the ~ 100 µg g^?1 level. Even for mounts not polished with alumina photoelectron spectroscopy shows high levels of Al surface contamination. In order to minimise electron beam current density, a rastered 50 × 100 µm electron beam was adequate and minimised sensitivity to small Al‐rich contaminants. Reproducible analyses of eleven SIMS‐cleaned spots on San Carlos olivine agreed at 69.3 ± 1.0 µg g^?1. The known Al mass fraction was used to calibrate an Al implant into San Carlos. Accurate measurements of Al were made for olivines in the pallasites: Imilac, Eagle Station and Springwater. Our focus was on Al in olivine, but our technique could be refined to give accurate electron probe measurements for other contamination‐sensitive trace elements. For solar wind, it is projected that the Al/Mg abundance ratio can be determined to 6%, a factor of 2 more precise than the solar spectroscopic ratio.     

Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index

Natural Hazards - As a concept, social vulnerability describes combinations of social, cultural, economic, political, and institutional processes that shape socioeconomic differentials in the...     

Controls on the geometry of a Holocene crater row: a field study from southwest Iceland

The Reykjanes Peninsula rift zone in southwest Iceland is a highly oblique segment of the Mid-Atlantic ridge system which accommodates NW–SE extension during rifting episodes that consist of eruptions and normal faulting, and E–W left-lateral shear strain along strike-slip faults during longer amagmatic periods. Dominant tectonic features on the peninsula are a series of generally NE-striking, sub-parallel eruptive fissures and normal faults, and a cross-cutting zone of N–S striking, right-lateral strike-slip faults. The last series of rifting episodes ended in 1227, and a proposed 1,000 year cyclicity predicts the start of a new series of eruptions within the next 200 years. In order to more accurately characterize the nature of eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula, we present a new, spatially accurate map of the ∼2,350 year old Sundhnúkur crater row in the western part of the peninsula, which was examined in detail in order to determine the structural controls on crater row geometry and to understand the interactions that take place between eruptive fissures and pre-existing geological structures. Volcanism is sometimes influenced by small perturbations in the surroundings such as gravitational loading, topography, changes in crustal properties or the presence of fault zones, but there are few field examples showing how fissures are influenced by these pre-existing structures. We identify 27 fissure segments, ranging in strike from 006° to 053°, with varying spacing and overlap between them. Significant local variability in strike and stepping sense of segments occurs in proximity to topographic highs as well as within zones of faulting that pre-date the crater row. Strike also varies at the northern end of the crater row as it approaches a region of older crust at the rift margin. Our data support numerical and laboratory modeling results which show that local topography, pre-existing fractures and crustal properties influence the path taken by magma on its way through the shallow crust.     

Pacific tropical–extratropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the NCAR Coupled Climate System Model v.3

In this study we document how model biases in extratropical surface wind and precipitation, due to ocean–atmosphere coupling, are communicated to the equatorial Pacific thermocline through Pacific Subtropical Cell (STC) pathways. We compare the simulation of climate mean Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs) in the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to observations and to an uncoupled ocean simulation (the ocean component of the CCSM3 forced by observed wind stress and surface fluxes). We use two versions of the CCSM3 with atmospheric resolution of 2.8° (T42) and 1.4° (T85) to investigate whether the climate mean STCs are sensitive to the resolution of the atmospheric model.Since STCs provide water that maintains the equatorial thermocline, we first document biases in equatorial temperature and salinity fields. We then investigate to what extent these biases are due to the simulation of extratropical–tropical water mass exchanges in the coupled models. We demonstrate that the coupled models’ cold and fresh bias in the equatorial thermocline is due to the subduction of significantly fresher and colder water in the South Pacific. This freshening is due to too much precipitation in the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Lagrangian trajectories of water that flows to the equatorial thermocline are calculated to demonstrate that the anomalously large potential vorticity barriers in the coupled simulations in both the North and South Pacific prevent water in the lower thermocline from reaching the equator. The equatorial thermocline is shown to be primarily maintained by water that subducts in the subtropical South Pacific in both the coupled and uncoupled simulations. It is shown that the zonally integrated transport convergence at the equator in the subsurface branch of the climate mean STCs is well simulated in the uncoupled ocean model. However, coupling reduces the net equatorward pycnocline transport by 4 Sv at 9°S and 1 Sv at 9°N. An increase in the atmospheric resolution from T42 to T85 results in more realistic equatorial trades and off-equatorial convergence zones.     

The Creston,California, meteorite fall and the origin of L chondrites

It has been proposed that all L chondrites resulted from an ongoing collisional cascade of fragments that originated from the formation of the ~500 Ma old asteroid family Gefion, located near the 5:2 mean‐motion resonance with Jupiter in the middle Main Belt. If so, L chondrite pre‐atmospheric orbits should be distributed as expected for that source region. Here, we present contradictory results from the orbit and collisional history of the October 24, 2015, L6 ordinary chondrite fall at Creston, CA (here reclassified to L5/6). Creston's short 1.30 ± 0.02 AU semimajor axis orbit would imply a long dynamical evolution if it originated from the middle Main Belt. Indeed, Creston has a high cosmic ray exposure age of 40–50 Ma. However, Creston's small meteoroid size and low 4.23 ± 0.07° inclination indicate a short dynamical lifetime against collisions. This suggests, instead, that Creston originated most likely in the inner asteroid belt and was delivered via the ν₆ resonance. The U‐Pb systematics of Creston apatite reveals a Pb‐Pb age of 4,497.1 ± 3.7 Ma, and an upper intercept U‐Pb age of 4,496.7 ± 5.8 Ma (2σ), circa 70 Ma after formation of CAI, as found for other L chondrites. The K‐Ar (age ~4.3 Ga) and U,Th‐He (age ~1 Ga) chronometers were not reset at ~500 Ma, while the lower intercept U‐Pb age is poorly defined as 770 ± 320 Ma. So far, the three known L chondrites that impacted on orbits with semimajor axes a <2.0 AU all have high (>3 Ga) K‐Ar ages. This argues for a source of some of our L chondrites in the inner Main Belt. Not all L chondrites originate in a continuous population of Gefion family debris stretching across the 3:1 mean‐motion resonance.