Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene and early Holocene ecological response of Lake El Trébol (Patagonia, Argentina) to environmental changes

Stratigraphy of Lake El Trébol (41°S 71°W, 758 m a.s.l.) described from an 11 m long sediment core provided a continuous record of patecenvironmental changes occurred during the last 14,000 years in southern South America east of the Andes. Located in an ecotonal area within a strong humidity gradient, this lake offers a unique opportunity to develop paleolimnological studies. Using a geochemical approach that includes elemental analysis, bulk organic matter, major nutrients and pigments combined with chironomids and pollen analysis, three zones were identified in the sedimentary record of this take. The oldest one (between 680 and 1,100 cm) corresponds to the late Glacial period. During that time, clayish laminated sediments were formed in a proglacial environment. Low organic matter, biogenic silica and nitrogen contents and the absence of pigments, pollen and chironomids characterise this period. At the end of this period, ca. 14,000 yr BP, a sharp increase in phosphorus concentrations predates major changes in limnological parameters. The transition zone (between 560 and 680 cm) is related to major changes in the drainage system that started soon after ca. 14,000 yr BP and continued to ca. 10,500 yr BP. The chemical composition of the sediments was affected by an increase in physical weathering mechanisms almost coincident with the increase in the regional volcanic activity that produced suspended volcanic detritus. The increase of mainly coarser detritical components may indicate a reorganisation of the fluvial system by that time. Simultaneously, an increase in the productivity of the lake accompanied by a gradual replacement of open vegetation with Nothofagus, Poaceae and Ericaceae, by Nothofagusforest, was observed. In the last zone (between 0 and 560 cm) the productivity of Lake El Trébol achieves maximum values. The trends in geochemical and biological indicators observed at Lake El Trébol can be up to some extent, correlated to those registered in Lake Mascardi. The results support earlier paleoctimatic scenarios from southern South America.     

Development of an operational low-flow index for hydrological drought monitoring over Europe

Near real-time monitoring of hydrological drought requires the implementation of an index capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the phenomenon. Starting from a dataset of modelled daily streamflow data, a low-flow index was developed based on the total water deficit of the discharge values below a certain threshold. In order to account for a range of hydrological regimes, a daily 95th percentile threshold was adopted, which was computed by means of a 31-day moving window. The observed historical total water deficits were statistically fitted by means of the exponential distribution and the corresponding probability values were used as a measure of hydrological drought severity. This approach has the advantage that it directly exploits daily streamflow values, as well as allowing a near real-time update of the index at regular time steps (i.e. 10 days, or dekad). The proposed approach was implemented on discharge data simulated by the LISFLOOD model over Europe during the period 1995–2015; its reliability was tested on four case studies found within the European drought reference database, as well as against the most recent summer drought observed in Central Europe in 2015. These validations, even if only qualitative, highlighted the ability of the index to capture the timing (starting date and duration) of the main historical hydrological drought events, and its good performance in comparison with the commonly used standardized runoff index (SRI). Additionally, the spatial evolution of the most recent event was captured well in a simulated near real-time test case, suggesting the suitability of the index for operational implementation within the European Drought Observatory.     

Stellar structure and mass loss on the upper asymptotic giant branch

We examine the envelope properties of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars as they evolve on the upper AGB and during the early post-AGB phase. Because of the high mass-loss rate, the envelope mass decreases by more than an order of magnitude. This makes the density profile below the photosphere much shallower, and the entropy profile much steeper. We discuss the possible role of these changes in the profiles in the onset of the high mass-loss rate (superwind) and the large deviation from spherical mass loss at the termination of the AGB. We concentrate on the idea that the shallower density profile and steeper entropy profile allow the formation of cool magnetic spots, above which dust forms much more easily.     

Morphometry and distribution of isolated caves as a guide for phreatic and confined paleohydrological conditions

Isolated caves are a special cave type common in most karst terrains, formed by prolonged slow water flow where aggressivity is locally boosted. The morphometry and distribution of isolated caves are used here to reconstruct the paleohydrology of a karstic mountain range. Within a homogenous karstic rock sequence, two main types of isolated caves are distinguished, and each is associated with a special hydrogeologic setting: maze caves form by rising water in the confined zone of the aquifer, under the Mt. Scopus Group (Israel) confinement, while chamber caves are formed in phreatic conditions, apparently by lateral flow mixing with a vadose input from above.     

Rapid entrenchment of stream profiles in the salt caves of Mount Sedom,Israel

Rock salt is approximately 1000 times more soluble than limestone and thus displays high rates of geomorphic evolution. Cave stream channel profiles and downcutting rates were studied in the Mount Sedom salt diapir, Dead Sea rift valley, Israel. Although the area is very arid (mean annual rainfall ≈ 50 mm), the diapir contains extensive karst systems of Holocene age. In the standard cave profile a vertical shaft at the upstream end diverts water from a surface channel in anhydrite or clastic cap rocks into the subsurface route in the salt. Mass balance calculations in a sample cave passage yielded downcutting rates of 0–2 mm s^?1 during peak flood conditions, or about eight orders of magnitude higher than reported rates in any limestone cave streams. However, in the arid climate of Mount Sedom floods have a low recurrence interval with the consequence that long-term mean downcutting rates are lower: an average rate of 8·8 mm a^?1 was measured for the period 1986–1991 in the same sample passage. Quite independently, long-term mean rates of 6·2mm a^?1 are deduced from ¹⁴C ages of driftwood found in upper levels of 12 cave passages. These are at least three orders of magnitude higher than rates established for limestone caves. Salt cave passages develop in two main stages: (1) an early stage characterized by high downcutting rates into the rock salt bed, and steep passage gradients; (2) a mature stage characterized by lower downcutting rates, with establishment of a subhorizontal stream bed armoured with alluvial detritus. In this mature stage downcutting rates are controlled by the uplift rate of the Mount Sedom diapir and changes of the level of the Dead Sea. Passages may also aggrade. These fast-developing salt stream channels may serve as full-scale models for slower developing systems such as limestone canyons.     

The erosion rates of cohesive sediments in Venice lagoon,Italy

The stability of cohesive sediments from Venice lagoon has been measured in situ using the benthic flume Sea Carousel. Twenty four stations were occupied during summertime, and a sub-set of 13 stations was re-occupied during the following winter. Erosion thresholds and first-order erosion rates were estimated and showed a distinct difference between inter-tidal and sub-tidal stations. The higher values for inter-tidal stations are the result of exposure that influences consolidation, density, and organic adhesion. The thresholds for each state of sediment motion are well established. However, the rate of erosion once the erosion threshold has been exceeded has been poorly treated. This is because normally a time-series of sediment concentration (C) and bed shear stress (τ₀(t)) is used to define threshold stress or cohesion (τ_crit,z) and erosion rate (E). Whilst solution of the onset of erosion, τ_crit,0, is often reported, the evaluation of the erosion threshold variation through the process of erosion (eroded depth) is usually omitted or not estimated. This usually leads to assumptions on the strength profile of the bed which invariably has no credibility within the topmost mm of the bed where most erosion takes place. It is possible to extract this information from a time-series through the addition of a step in data processing. This paper describes how this is done, and the impact of this on the accuracy of estimates of the excess stress (τ₀(t)–τ_crit,z) on E.     

Storm-generated,hummocky stratification on the outer-Scotian Shelf

Hummocky megaripples occur on Sable Island Bank, Scotian Shelf. Submersible observations show that the megaripples form during winter storms and are subsequently obliterated through bioturbation and fair-weather reworking. The megaripples of this study were underlain by a storm bed composed of: (A) a basal scoured and infilled gravel lag facies; (B) low-angle tangential crossbedding in gravel to coarse sand; (C) anisotropic hummocky stratification in medium sand; and (D) wave ripple cross-lamination in medium/fine sand. This sequence forms a tempestite bed created by a winter storm during our sampling program. Numerical simulation of bed conditions during the storm suggests that the hummocky megaripples and hummocky stratification formed together during late stages of storm decay from conditions of sheet flow. Near-bed wave motion during deposition exceeded steady currents by an order of magnitude.