Developing Potentiometric Surfaces and Flow Fields with a Head‐Specified MODFLOW Model

Investigating changes in an aquifer system often involves comparison of observed heads from different synoptic measurements, generally with potentiometric surfaces developed by hand or a statistical approach. Alternatively, head‐specified MODFLOW models, in which constant head cells simulate observed heads, generate gridded potentiometric surfaces that explicitly account for Darcy's Law and mass balance. We developed a transient head‐specified MODFLOW model for the stratified Cambrian‐Ordovician sandstone aquifer system of northeastern Illinois to analyze flow within its 275 m deep cone of depression. Potentiometric surfaces were developed using static heads from production wells regardless of open interval; hence assuming no vertical head difference. This assumption was tested against steady‐state, head‐specified models of each sandstone strata for 1980 and 2014. The results indicate that the original conceptual model was appropriate in 1980 but not 2014, where a vertical head difference had developed at the center of the cone of depression. For earlier years, when the head difference was minimal, the transient head‐specified model compared well with a traditional, flow‐specified model. In later years, the transient head‐specified model overestimated removal of water from storage. MODFLOW facilitates the development of a time‐series of potentiometric surfaces and can easily be modified to test the impacts of different conceptual models, such as assumptions on vertical head differences. For this study of a deep confined aquifer, MODFLOW also offers advantages in generating potentiometric surfaces and flow fields over statistical interpolation techniques, although future research is needed to assess its performance in other settings.     

Amenity migration: diverse conceptualizations of drivers,socioeconomic dimensions,and emerging challenges

Rural communities throughout the postindustrial world are in the midst of a significant transition, sometimes referred to as rural restructuring, as traditional land uses, economic activities, and social arrangements transition to those associated with “post-productivist” or “multifunctional” landscapes. Amenity migration, the movement of people based on the draw of natural and/or cultural amenities, can be thought of as both driver and implication of this transition, resulting in significant changes in the ownership, use, and governance of rural lands, as well as in the composition and socioeconomic dynamics of rural communities. In concert with other social, economic and political processes, amenity migration is contributing to the fundamental transformation of rural communities throughout the world. This paper presents a review of the social science literature related to the concept of amenity migration, focusing on the ways in which it has been conceptualized, theorized, and documented by different communities of scholars. We then profile and summarize diverse perspectives on drivers and socioeconomic impacts, highlighting emerging challenges and opportunities related to this type of migration occurring at multiple scales and in multiple sites. The paper also identifies and discusses particular areas where further research is needed.     

Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.     

Simplified 3-D dynamic analysis of structures with flexible diaphragms

A simplified method of 3-D dynamic analysis, named 3-D quasi-dynamic analysis, is presented. This method has been primarily used to evaluate stress states at identified times of peak dynamic responses of structures with flexible diaphragms. The quasi-dynamic analysis consists of extracting the accelerations predicted by the time-step integration analyses of two 2-D discrete MDOF dynamic models of a given structure (each discrete model corresponding to one of the principal orthogonal directions of the structure) at given times of interest. These accelerations are imposed on a 3-D representation of the structure (for example, a finite element mesh) as equivalent static forces. Accelerations at the diaphragms are assumed to act over the same tributary areas of the diaphragms considered in the 2-D discrete dynamic models. The study of the firehouse of Gilroy (an unreinforced masonry structure with flexible diaphragms) during the Loma Prieta Earthquake is presented to illustrate the 3-D quasi-dynamic seismic analysis. This method was compared to the more traditional 3-D modal time-step integration and 3-D response spectra analyses. The quasi-dynamic analysis had a general good agreement with the more formal, complex and computationally extensive modal time-step integration analysis. The 3-D response spectra analysis was very conservative and had a poor correlation with both the quasi-dynamic and the modal time-step integration analyses. The case study of the firehouse of Gilroy suggested that if 3-D effects have to be considered in the evaluation of a given structure, the quasi-dynamic analysis constitutes a reliable and computationally cheaper alternative to the more traditional methods of 3-D dynamic analysis.     

Constraining Holocene lake levels and coastal dune activity in the Lake Michigan basin

Sediment cores collected from embayed lakes along the east-central coast of Lake Michigan are used to construct aeolian sand records of past coastal dune mobility, and to constrain former lake levels in the Lake Michigan basin. Time series analysis of sand cycles based on the weight-percent aeolian sand within lacustrine sediment, reveals statistically significant spectral peaks that coincide with established lake level cycles in Lake Michigan and the Gleissberg sunspot cycle of minima. Longer cycles of ~ 800 and ~ 2200 years were also identified that correspond to solar cycles. Shorter cycles between 80 and 220 years suggest a link between coastal dune mobility, climate, and lake levels in the Lake Michigan basin. Radiocarbon-dated sedimentary contacts of lacustrine sediment overlying wetland sediment record the Nipissing transgression in the Lake Michigan basin. Lake level rise closely mimics the predicted uplift of the North Bay outlet, with lake level rise slowing when outflow was transferred to the Port Huron/Sarnia outlet. The Nipissing highstand was reached after 5000 cal (4.4 ka) BP.     

Conceptualizing leakage and storage contributions from long open interval wells in regional deep basin flow models

Deep basin aquifers are increasingly used in water‐stressed areas, though their potential for sustainable development is inhibited by overlying aquitards and limited recharge rates. Long open interval wells (LOIWs)—wells uncased through multiple hydrostratigraphic units—are present in many confined aquifer systems and can be an important mechanism for deep basin aquifers to receive flow across aquitards. LOIWs are a major control on flow in the deep Cambrian–Ordovician sandstone aquifers of the upper Midwest, USA, providing a source of artificial leakage from shallow bedrock aquifers and equilibrating head within the sandstone aquifers despite differential pumpage. Conceptualizing and quantifying this anthropogenic flow has long been a challenge for groundwater flow modellers, particularly on a regional scale. Synoptic measurements of active production wells and well completion data for northeast Illinois form the basis for a transient, head‐specified MODFLOW model that determines mass balance contributions to the region and estimates LOIW leakage to the aquifers. Using this insight, transient LOIW leakage was simulated using transiently changing K_V zones in a traditional, Q‐specified MODFLOW‐USG model, a novel approach that allows the K_V in a cell containing a LOIW to change transiently by use of the time‐variant materials (TVM) package. With this modification, we achieved a consistent calibration through time, averaging 19.9 m root mean squared error. This model indicates that artificial leakage via LOIWs contributed a minimum of 10–13% of total flow to the sandstone aquifers through the entire history of pumping, up to 50% of flow around 1930. Removal from storage exceeds 40% of flow during peak withdrawals, much of this flow sourced from units other than the primary sandstone aquifers via LOIWs. As such, understanding the timing and magnitude of LOIW leakage is essential for predicting future water availability in deep basin aquifers.     

Examining the neighbourhood‐level predictors of fear of crime in Christchurch,New Zealand

The fear of crime can significantly reduce the quality of life of individuals, yet little is known about what neighbourhood‐level factors drive feelings of vulnerability in New Zealand. Even less is known about the impact that recorded crime has on individuals' fear in the country. In this study, we examined the neighbourhood‐level factors related to fear of crime in Christchurch, focusing specifically on whether recorded crime in neighbourhoods influences fear. The fear of crime in Christchurch was found to be the greatest in more affluent, ethnically homogenous and residentially stable neighbourhoods, while recorded crime levels were found to be relatively lower in these neighbourhoods.     

On Modeling Weak Sinks in MODPATH

Regional groundwater flow systems often contain both strong sinks and weak sinks. A strong sink extracts water from the entire aquifer depth, while a weak sink lets some water pass underneath or over the actual sink. The numerical groundwater flow model MODFLOW may allow a sink cell to act as a strong or weak sink, hence extracting all water that enters the cell or allowing some of that water to pass. A physical strong sink can be modeled by either a strong sink cell or a weak sink cell, with the latter generally occurring in low‐resolution models. Likewise, a physical weak sink may also be represented by either type of sink cell. The representation of weak sinks in the particle tracing code MODPATH is more equivocal than in MODFLOW. With the appropriate parameterization of MODPATH, particle traces and their associated travel times to weak sink streams can be modeled with adequate accuracy, even in single layer models. Weak sink well cells, on the other hand, require special measures as proposed in the literature to generate correct particle traces and individual travel times and hence capture zones. We found that the transit time distributions for well water generally do not require special measures provided aquifer properties are locally homogeneous and the well draws water from the entire aquifer depth, an important observation for determining the response of a well to non‐point contaminant inputs.     

Radiocarbon ages of Holocene Pelado,Guespalapa, and Chichinautzin scoria cones,south of Mexico City: implications for archaeology and future hazards

Pelado, Guespalapa, and Chichinautzin monogenetic scoria cones located within the Sierra del Chichinautzin Volcanic Field (SCVF) at the southern margin of Mexico City were dated by the radiocarbon method at 10,000, 2,800–4,700, and 1,835 years b.p., respectively. Most previous research in this area was concentrated on Xitle scoria cone, whose lavas destroyed and buried the pre-Hispanic town of Cuicuilco around 1,665±35 years b.p. The new dates indicate that the recurrence interval for monogenetic eruptions in the central part of the SCVF and close to the vicinity of Mexico City is <2,500 years. If the entire SCVF is considered, the recurrence interval is <1,700 years. Based on fieldwork and Landsat imagery interpretation a geologic map was produced, morphometric parameters characterizing the cones and lava flows determined, and the areal extent and volumes of erupted products estimated. The longest lava flow was produced by Guespalapa and reached 24 km from its source; total areas covered by lava flows from each eruption range between 54 (Chichinautzin) and 80 km² (Pelado); and total erupted volumes range between 1 and 2 km³/cone. An average eruption rate for the entire SCVF was estimated at 0.6 km³/1,000 years. These findings are of importance for archaeological as well as volcanic hazards studies in this heavily populated region.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert