Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

Comparison of flood hazard assessments on desert piedmonts and playas: A case study in Ivanpah Valley, Nevada

Accurate and realistic characterizations of flood hazards on desert piedmonts and playas are increasingly important given the rapid urbanization of arid regions. Flood behavior in arid fluvial systems differs greatly from that of the perennial rivers upon which most conventional flood hazard assessment methods are based. Additionally, hazard assessments may vary widely between studies or even contradict other maps. This study's chief objective was to compare and evaluate landscape interpretation and hazard assessment between types of maps depicting assessments of flood risk in Ivanpah Valley, NV, as a case study. As a secondary goal, we explain likely causes of discrepancy between data sets to ameliorate confusion for map users. Four maps, including three different flood hazard assessments of Ivanpah Valley, NV, were compared: (i) a regulatory map prepared by FEMA, (ii) a soil survey map prepared by NRCS, (iii) a surficial geologic map, and (iv) a flood hazard map derived from the surficial geologic map, both of which were prepared by NBMG. GIS comparisons revealed that only 3.4% (33.9 km²) of Ivanpah Valley was found to lie within a FEMA floodplain, while the geologic flood hazard map indicated that ~ 44% of Ivanpah Valley runs some risk of flooding (Fig. 2D). Due to differences in mapping methodology and scale, NRCS data could not be quantitatively compared, and other comparisons were complicated by differences in flood hazard class criteria and terminology between maps. Owing to its scale and scope of attribute data, the surficial geologic map provides the most useful information on flood hazards for land-use planning. This research has implications for future soil geomorphic mapping and flood risk mitigation on desert piedmonts and playas. The Ivanpah Valley study area also includes the location of a planned new international airport, thus this study has immediate implications for urban development and land-use planning near Las Vegas, NV.     

The architecture, eruptive history, and evolution of the Table Rock Complex, Oregon: From a Surtseyan to an energetic maar eruption

The Table Rock Complex (TRC; Pliocene–Pleistocene), first documented and described by Heiken [Heiken, G.H., 1971. Tuff rings; examples from the Fort Rock-Christmas Lake valley basin, south-central Oregon. J. Geophy. Res. 76, 5615-5626.], is a large and well-exposed mafic phreatomagmatic complex in the Fort Rock–Christmas Lake Valley Basin, south-central Oregon. It spans an area of approximately 40 km², and consists of a large tuff cone in the south (TRC1), and a large tuff ring in the northeast (TRC2). At least seven additional, smaller explosion craters were formed along the flanks of the complex in the time between the two main eruptions. The first period of activity, TRC1, initiated with a Surtseyan-style eruption through a 60–70 m deep lake. The TRC1 deposits are dominated by multiple, 1-2 m thick, fining upward sequences of massive to diffusely-stratified lapilli tuff with intermittent zones of reverse grading, followed by a finely-laminated cap of fine-grained sediment. The massive deposits are interpreted as the result of eruption-fed, subaqueous turbidity current deposits; whereas, the finely laminated cap likely resulted from fallout of suspended fine-grained material through a water column. Other common features are erosive channel scour-and-fill deposits, massive tuff breccias, and abundant soft sediment deformation due to rapid sediment loading. Subaerial TRC1 deposits are exposed only proximal to the edifice, and consist of cross-stratified base-surge deposits. The eruption built a large tuff cone above the lake surface ending with an effusive stage, which produced a lava lake in the crater (365 m above the lake floor). A significant repose period occurred between the TRC1 and TRC2 eruptions, evidenced by up to 50 cm of diatomitic lake sediments at the contact between the two tuff sequences. The TRC2 eruption was the last and most energetic in the complex. General edifice morphology and a high percentage of accidental material suggest eruption through saturated TRC1 deposits and/or playa lake sediments. TRC2 deposits are dominated by three-dimensional dune features with wavelengths 200–500 m perpendicular to the flow, and 20–200 m parallel to the direction of flow depending on distance from source. Large U-shaped channels (10–32 m deep), run-up features over obstacles tens of meters high, and a large (13 m) chute-and-pool feature are also identified. The TRC2 deposits are interpreted as the products of multiple, erosive, highly-inflated pyroclastic surges resulting from collapse of an unusually high eruption column relative to previously documented mafic phreatomagmatic eruptions.     

Reforestation Programs in Southwest China： Reported Success, Observed Failure, and the Reasons Why

Ever since the disastrous floods of 1998, the Chinese government has used the Natural Forest Protection and Sloping Land Conversion Programs to promote afforestation and reforestation as means to reduce runoff, control erosion, and stabilize local livelihoods. These two ambitious programs have been reported as large-scale successes, contributing to an overall increase in China’s forest cover and to the stated goals of environmental stabilization. A small-scale field study at the project level of the implementation of these two programs in Baiwu Township, Yanyuan County, Sichuan, casts doubt upon the accuracy and reliability of these claims of success; ground observations revealed utter failure in some sites and only marginal success in others. Reasons for this discrepancy are posited as involving ecological, economic, and bureaucratic factors. Further research is suggested to determine whether these discrepancies are merely local aberrations or represent larger-scale failures in reforestation programs.     

New developments in water efficiency

1Water LossInitiativesUnaccounted-for water(or unbilled water)has beenreceiving newscrutiny at both the state and nationallevels.For years,water conservationeffortsin Europehave emphasized reduction in water loss to a muchgreater extent thaninthe United S…     

Fifty-Five Years of Fish Kills in Coastal Texas

The designation of Texas as a “hotspot” for fish mortalities relative to the other 22 coastal US states is of serious concern for scientists, resource managers, and the public alike. We investigated the major sources and causes of fish kills in coastal Texas from 1951 to 2006. During this 55-year period, more than 383 million fish were killed, 72% of which were Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia spp.). We examined the relationships between climate and the physical features of Texas bays and estuaries as well as the consequences of high-density industrialization and urbanization along several coastal centers on fish kills, including the impact of eutrophication, algal blooms (toxic and nontoxic), and hypoxia. Galveston and Matagorda Bays had the highest number of fish kill events and total number of fish killed. The largest number of fish kill events and the highest number of fish killed occurred during the warmest months, particularly in August. The leading cause of fish kills was found to be low dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by both physical and biological factors. From 1958 to 1997, about two thirds of the mortalities from low oxygen concentrations were caused by human activities. With the population predicted to double in Texas by 2050, mostly along the coastal areas, natural resources will require additional protection. Further increases in nutrient loading are expected in areas unable to keep up with construction of sewage treatment facilities. Defining the sources and causes of fish kill events in Texas will allow better management and conservation efforts.     

Use of Multiple Chemical Tracers to Define Habitat Use of Indo-Pacific Mangrove Crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scylla Serrata</Emphasis> (Decapoda: Portunidae)

The mangrove or mud crab, Scylla serrata, is an important component of mangrove fisheries throughout the Indo-Pacific. Understanding crab diets and habitat use should assist in managing these fisheries and could provide additional justification for conservation of the mangrove ecosystem itself. We used multiple chemical tracers to test whether crab movements were restricted to local mangrove forests, or extended to include adjacent seagrass beds and reef flats. We sampled three mangrove forests on the island of Kosrae in the Federated States of Micronesia at Lelu Harbor, Okat River, and Utwe tidal channel. Samples of S. serrata and likely food sources were analyzed for stable carbon (δ¹³C), nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), and sulfur (δ³⁴S) isotopes. Scylla serrata tissues also were analyzed for phosphorus (P), cations (K, Ca, Mg, Na), and trace elements (Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, and B). Discriminant analysis indicated that at least 87% of the crabs remain in each site as distinct populations. Crab stable isotope values indicated potential differences in habitat use within estuaries. Values for δ¹³C and δ³⁴S in crabs from Okat and Utwe were low and similar to values expected from animals feeding within mangrove forests, e.g., feeding on infauna that had average δ¹³C values near −26.5‰. In contrast, crabs from Lelu had higher δ¹³C and δ³⁴S values, with average values of −21.8 and 7.8‰, respectively. These higher isotope values are consistent with increased crab foraging on reef flats and seagrasses. Given that S. serrata have been observed feeding on adjacent reef and seagrass environments on Kosrae, it is likely that they move in and out of the mangroves for feeding. Isotope mixing model results support these conclusions, with the greatest mangrove ecosystem contribution to S. serrata diet occurring in the largest mangrove forests. Conserving larger island mangrove forests (> 1 km deep) appears to support crab foraging activities.     

Holocene climate and environmental history of East Greenland inferred from lake sediments

Prediction of future Arctic climate and environmental changes, as well as associated ice-sheet behavior, requires placing present-day warming and reduced ice extent into a long-term context. Here we present a record of Holocene climate and glacier fluctuations inferred from the paleolimnology of small lakes near Istorvet ice cap in East Greenland. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of organic remains indicate deglaciation of the region before ~10,500 years BP, after which time the ice cap receded rapidly to a position similar to or less extensive than present, and lake sediments shifted from glacio-lacustrine clay to relatively organic-rich gyttja. The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. This restricted ice extent suggests that climate was similar to or warmer than present, in keeping with other records from Greenland that indicate a warm early and middle Holocene. Middle Holocene magnetic susceptibility oscillations, with a ~200-year frequency in one of the lakes, may relate to solar influence on local catchment processes. Following thousands of years of restricted extent, Istorvet ice cap advanced to within 365 m of its late Holocene limit at ~AD 1150. Variability in the timing of glacial and climate fluctuations, as well as of sediment organic content changes among East Greenland lacustrine records, may be a consequence of local factors, such as elevation, continentality, water depth, turbidity, and seabirds, and highlights the need for a detailed spatial array of datasets to address questions about Holocene climate change.     

DNA-based methods in paleolimnology: new opportunities for investigating long-term dynamics of lacustrine biodiversity

We reconstructed 150 years of ecological change in a shallow boreal lake located on the east shore of the Baltic Sea by integrating different types of environmental evidence: paleolimnological records (XRF-measured elements, fossil pigments and Cladocera assemblages), information from historical limnological surveys and archival maps. We assessed the role of biomanipulation by liming and fish-removal in the disappearance of submerged macrophytes, such as Lobelia dortmanna L., and their replacement by persistent cyanobacterial blooms. The combination of different strands of evidence revealed that the shift from macrophyte to cyanobacterial dominance was part of a long-term ecological response to eutrophication and increased sediment load from catchment disturbances. The findings demonstrate that a gradual loss of wetlands and increase of ditches in a catchment had a more significant effect on the lake ecosystem, compared to the direct, but short-term impact of biomanipulation. The study highlights the importance of catchment land-use and disturbance by ditches in changing the ecology of boreal water bodies. Also, it illustrates that a thorough understanding of the long-term ecosystem dynamics and differentiation among responses to multiple anthropogenic impacts are essential preconditions for addressing the deterioration of habitats and change in aquatic environments.     

User comments on climate stories: impacts of anecdotal vs. scientific evidence

Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are well established techniques to bridge the gap between the coarse information produced by global circulation models and the regional-to-local scales required by the climate change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) communities. A number of studies have analyzed the relative merits of each technique by inter-comparing their performance in reproducing the observed climate, as given by a number of climatic indices (e.g. mean values, percentiles, spells). However, in this paper we stress that fair comparisons should be based on indices that are not affected by the calibration towards the observed climate used for some of the methods. We focus on precipitation (over continental Spain) and consider the output of eight Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.44^° resolution and five Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs) —analog resampling, weather typing and generalized linear models— trained using the Spain044 observational gridded dataset on exactly the same RCM grid. The performance of these models is inter-compared in terms of several standard indices —mean precipitation, 90th percentile on wet days, maximum precipitation amount and maximum number of consecutive dry days— taking into account the parameters involved in the SDM training phase. It is shown, that not only the directly affected indices should be carefully analyzed, but also those indirectly influenced (e.g. percentile-based indices for precipitation) which are more difficult to identify. We also analyze how simple transformations (e.g. linear scaling) could be applied to the outputs of the uncalibrated methods in order to put SDMs and RCMs on equal footing, and thus perform a fairer comparison.