1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

Generalized Born inversion of seismic reflection data

Summary . Born inverse methods give accurate and stable results when the source wavelet is impulsive. However, in many practical applications (reflection seismology) an impulsive source cannot be realized and the inversion needs to be generalized to include an arbitrary source function. In this paper, we present a Born solution to the seismic inverse problem which can accommodate an arbitrary source function and give accurate and stable results. It is shown that the form of the generalized inversion algorithm reduces to a Wiener shaping ***filter, which is solved efficiently using a Levinson recursion algorithm. Numerical examples of synthetic and real field data illustrate the validity of our method.     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

Sedimentological constraints on hydrometeor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska

Water is a dominant component of volcanic clouds and has fundamental control on very fine particle deposition. Particle size characteristics of distal tephra-fall (100s km from source volcano) have a higher proportion of very fine particles compared to predictions based on single particle settling rates. In this study, sedimentological analyses of fallout from for the 18 August and 16–17 September 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska, are combined with satellite observations, and cloud trajectory and microphysics modeling to investigate meteorological influences on particle sedimentation. Total grain size distributions of tephra fallout were reconstructed for both Crater Peak eruptions and indicate a predominance of fine particles < 125 μm. Polymodal analysis of the deposits has identified a particle subpopulation with mode ~ 15–18 μm involved in particle aggregation. Accounting for the magmatic water source only, calculated ice water content of the 3.7 hour old September 1992 Spurr cloud was ~ 4.5 × 10^− 2 g m^− 3 (based on an estimated cloud thickness of ~ 1000 m from trajectory modeling). Hydrometeor formation on particles in the volcanic cloud and subsequent sublimation may induce a cloud base instability that leads to rapid bulk (en masse) sedimentation of very fine particles through a mammatus-like mechanism.     

Linear and planar structure in ordered multivariate data as applied to progressive demagnetization of palaeomagnetic remanence

Summary. Consider a sequence of, say, 10 to 20 vector observations in three-dimensional space. It is suspected that a few subsets of consecutive observations are made up of collinear points. The purpose of this paper is to construct a statistically based algorithm to find such linear segments and to assess their accuracy. A similar assessment is made for coplanar sets of points.
This algorithm is applied here to palaeomagnetic data and is claimed to be superior to previous methods of palaeomagnetic analysis in terms of completeness and balance of analysis, treatment of measurement errors and other sources of scatter, criteria for identification of linear and planar sets of points, and statistical rigour. Stability spectra, with statistically based confidence limits, are obtained as a by-product.     

Patterns of Irrigated Agricultural Land Conversion in a Western U.S. Watershed: Implications for Landscape-Level Water Management and Land-Use Planning

In irrigated agricultural landscapes, land-use conversion may have landscape-level social, hydrological, and ecological effects. We used geographic information systems (GIS) and interviews to analyze development effects on irrigation in the Henry's Fork Watershed, Idaho. Farmers developed irrigation there in the 19th century, and incidental recharge from canal seepage and flood irrigation raised groundwater levels and expanded wetlands. Cohesive culture in agricultural communities sustained irrigation systems until amenity-driven demographic shifts beginning in the 1970s led to development approved by local governments with land-use planning but no water-management authority. Although only 5% of irrigated land has been converted, development has fragmented irrigated landscapes and made canal-system operation more difficult, potentially reducing groundwater levels, wetland extent, and return flows critical to downstream irrigators and fish and wildlife. We discuss future scenarios, highlighting the need for increased communication among local and state governments regarding land use and water management in irrigated landscapes across the West.     

Amphibole zonation in metabasites as a guide to the evolution of metamorphic conditions

In low grade metabasites the amphibole components tremolite, glaucophane, edenite and tschermakite have their activities controlled by interactions with the excess components albite, clinozoisite, chlorite, quartz and H₂O vapor. Three types of reaction are involved, (i) Those in which only components of condensed phases take part: isopleths of equilibrium constant are straight lines in the P-T plane. (ii) Dehydration reactions in which entropy change due to change in Al coordination is of the same sign as that due to dehydration: isopleths of constant K are positive at low pressure and negative at high pressure. (iii) Dehydration reactions in which entropy change due to Al coordination change is opposite in sign to that of dehydration: isopleths of constant K loop in the P-T plane with positive slopes at low and at high pressure. Zonation in naturally occurring amphiboles records the evolution of metamorphic conditions in particular rocks. In an example from the eastern Alps (Austria) early conditions calculated as 15 kb, 200 ° C evolve upgrade to 6 kb, 525 ° C implying concurrent heating and erosion. The record of evolving conditions may span some 30 Ma of geological history.