Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The leading mode of southern hemisphere (SH) climatic variability, the southern annular mode (SAM), has recently seen a shift towards its positive phase due to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Here we examine how sensitive the SAM (defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of SH sea level pressure anomalies) is to future GHG concentrations. We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve stratospheric ozone recovery. During the period of summer ozone recovery (2000–2050), the SAM index exhibits weakly negative, statistically insignificant trends due to stratospheric ozone recovery which offsets the positive forcing imposed by increasing GHG concentrations. Thereafter, positive SAM index trends occur with magnitudes that show sensitivity to the SRES scenario utilised, and thus future GHG emissions. Trends are determined to be strongest for SRES A2, followed by A1B and B1, respectively. The winter SAM maintains a similar dependency upon GHG as summer, but over the entire twenty-first century and to a greater extent. We also examine the influence of ozone recovery by comparing results to models that exclude stratospheric ozone recovery. Projections are shown to be statistically different from the aforementioned results, highlighting the importance of ozone recovery in governing SAM-evolution. We therefore demonstrate that the future SAM will depend both upon GHG emissions and stratospheric ozone recovery.     

Equivalent time-average and effective medium for periodic layers

The propagation of acoustic waves through a periodic layered medium is analyzed by an eigenvalue decomposition of the propagator matrix. This reveals how the velocity and attenuation of the layered medium vary as function of the periodic structure, material parameters and frequency. There are two important parameters which control the wave propagation in the periodic medium: the reflection coefficient and the ratio between one‐way traveltimes of the two parts of the cyclic layered medium. For low frequencies (large values of wavelength to layer thickness), the layered structure behaves as an effective medium, then there is a transition zone, and for higher frequencies (small values of wavelength to layer thickness) the medium is described by the time‐average velocity. In this paper we mostly concentrate on the transition zone between an effective medium and time‐average medium regimes. The width of the transition zone increases with larger values of the reflection coefficient. The transition zone corresponds to a blocking regime for which the transmission response of the layered structure is close to zero. For even higher frequencies, the time‐average medium is replaced by a new transition zone, and then again a time‐average medium. This pattern is periodically repeated with higher frequencies. For small values of the reflection coefficient, the transition between effective medium and time‐average medium occurs around a value of wavelength to layer thickness equal to 4.     

Magnetic resonance sounding applied to aquifer characterization

Magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) is distinguished from other geophysical tools used for ground water investigation by the fact that it measures a magnetic resonance signal generated directly from subsurface water molecules. An alternating current pulse energizes a wire loop on the ground surface and the MRS signal is generated; subsurface water is indicated, with a high degree of reliability, by nonzero amplitude readings. Measurements with varied pulse magnitudes then reveal the depth and thickness of water saturated layers. The hydraulic conductivity of aquifers can also be estimated using boreholes for calibration. MRS can be used for both predicting the yield of water supply wells and for interpolation between boreholes, thereby reducing the number of holes required for hydrogeological modeling. An example of the practical application of MRS combined with two-dimensional electrical imaging, in the Kerbernez and Kerien catchments area of France, demonstrates the efficiency of the technique.     

Low-frequency anisotropy in fractured and layered media

Computing effective medium properties is very important when upscaling data measured at small scale. In the presence of stratigraphic layering, seismic velocities and anisotropy parameters are scale and frequency dependent. For a porous layer permeated by aligned fractures, wave-induced fluid flow between pores and fractures can also cause significant dispersion in velocities and anisotropy parameters. In this study, we compare the dispersion of anisotropy parameters due to fracturing and layering at low frequencies. We consider a two-layer model consisting of an elastic shale layer and an anelastic sand layer. Using Chapman's theory, we introduce anisotropy parameters dispersion due to fractures (meso-scale) in the sand layer. This intrinsic dispersion is added to anisotropy parameters dispersion induced by layering (macro-scale) at low frequencies. We derive the series coefficients that control the behaviour of anisotropy parameters at low frequencies. We investigate the influences of fracture length and fracture density on fracturing effect, layering effect and combined effect versus frequency and volume fraction of sand layer. Numerical modelling results indicate that the frequency dependence due to layering is not always the dominant effect of the effective properties of the medium. The intrinsic dispersion is not negligible compared with the layering effect while evaluating the frequency-dependent properties of the layered medium.     

Frequency-dependent PP and PS reflection coefficients in fractured media

When a porous layer is permeated by mesoscale fractures, wave-induced fluid flow between pores and fractures can cause significant attenuation and dispersion of velocities and anisotropy parameters in the seismic frequency band. This intrinsic dispersion due to fracturing can create frequency-dependent reflection coefficients in the layered medium. In this study, we derive the frequency-dependent PP and PS reflection coefficients versus incidence angle in the fractured medium. We consider a two-layer vertical transverse isotropy model constituted by an elastic shale layer and an anelastic sand layer. Using Chapman's theory, we introduce the intrinsic dispersion due to fracturing in the sand layer. Based on the series coefficients that control the behaviour of velocity and anisotropy parameters in the fractured medium at low frequencies, we extend the conventional amplitude-versus-offset equations into frequency domain and derive frequency-dependent amplitude-versus-offset equations at the elastic–anelastic surface. Increase in fracture length or fracture density can enlarge the frequency dependence of amplitude-versus-offset attributes of PP and PS waves. Also, the frequency dependence of magnitude and phase angle of PP and PS reflection coefficients increases as fracture length or fracture density increases. Amplitude-versus-offset type of PP and PS reflection varies with fracture parameters and frequency. What is more, fracture length shows little impact on the frequency-dependent critical phase angle, while the frequency dependence of the critical phase angle increases with fracture density.     

Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios

The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 ppmv in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.     

Water retention effects on elastic properties of Opalinus shale

Shales play an important role in many engineering applications such as nuclear waste, CO₂ storage and oil or gas production. Shales are often utilized as an impermeable seal or an unconventional reservoir. For both situations, shales are often studied using seismic waves. Elastic properties of shales strongly depend on their hydration, which can lead to substantial structural changes. Thus, in order to explore shaly formations with seismic methods, it is necessary to understand the dependency of shale elastic properties on variations in hydration. In this work, we investigate structural changes in Opalinus shale at different hydration states using laboratory measurements and X-ray micro-computed tomography. We show that the shale swells with hydration and shrinks with drying with no visible damage. The pore space of the shale deforms, exhibiting a reduction in the total porosity with drying and an increase in the total porosity with hydration. We study the elastic properties of the shale at different hydration states using ultrasonic velocities measurements. The elastic moduli of the shale show substantial changes with variations in hydration, which cannot be explained with a single driving mechanism. We suggest that changes of the elastic moduli with variations in hydration are driven by multiple competing factors: (1) variations in total porosity, (2) substitution of pore-filling fluid, (3) change in stiffness of contacts between clay particles and (4) chemical hardening/softening of clay particles. We qualitatively and quantitatively analyse and discuss the influence of each of these factors on the elastic moduli. We conclude that depending on the microstructure and composition of a particular shale, some of the factors dominate over the others, resulting in different dependencies of the elastic moduli on hydration.     

A new parameterization for generalized moveout approximation,based on three rays

A simple and accurate traveltime approximation is important in many applications in seismic data processing, inversion and modelling stages. Generalized moveout approximation is an explicit equation that approximates reflection traveltimes in general two-dimensional models. Definition of its five parameters can be done from properties of finite offset rays, for general models, or by explicit calculation from model properties, for specific models. Two versions of classical finite-offset parameterization for this approximation use traveltime and traveltime derivatives of two rays to define five parameters, which makes them asymmetrical. Using a third ray, we propose a balance between the number of rays and the order of traveltime derivatives. Our tests using different models also show the higher accuracy of the proposed method. For acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical symmetry axis, we calculate a new moveout approximation in the generalized moveout approximation functional form, which is explicitly defined by three independent parameters of zero-offset two-way time, normal moveout velocity and anellipticity parameter. Our test shows that the maximum error of the proposed transversely isotropic moveout approximation is about 1/6 to 1/8 of that of the moveout approximation that had been reported as the most accurate approximation in these media. The higher accuracy is the result of a novel parameterization that do not add any computational complexity. We show a simple example of its application on synthetic seismic data.     

Traveltime parameters in a tilted elliptical anisotropic medium‡

In this paper, we derive analytical expressions for one‐way and two‐way kinematical parameters in elliptical tilted transverse isotropy media. We show that the homogeneous elliptical tilted transverse isotropy models result in hyperbolic moveout with a reflection point sideslip x₀, which can be considered as an additional traveltime parameter for one‐way wave propagation. For homogeneous elliptical tilted transverse isotropy models we show that the inversion of one‐way traveltime parameters suffers from the ambiguity for large tilts. It is shown that the accuracy of the inversion is sensitive to the error in x₀. We also derive and invert the traveltime parameters for a vertically heterogeneous elliptical tilted transverse isotropy model with a tilt gradually changing with depth. The a priori knowledge of parameter δ is very important for inversion. The wrong choise of this parameter results in significant errors in inverted model parameters.     

Effect of Decoupling of Lithospheric Plates on the Observed Geoid

A joint effect of weak zones, dividing lithospheric plates, and lateral viscosity variations (LVV) in the whole mantle on the observed geoid is investigated by a new numerical approach. This technique is based on the substantially revised method introduced by Zhang and Christensen (Geophys J Int 114:531–547, 1993) for solving the Navier–Stokes–Poisson equations in the spectral domain with strong LVV. Weak plate boundaries (WPB) are introduced based on an integrated global model of plate boundary deformations GSRM (Kreemer et al. in Geophys J Int 154:8–34, 2003). The effect of WPB on the geoid is significant and reaches ?40 to 70 m with RMS ~20 m. The peaks are observed over large subduction zones in South America and the southwestern Pacific in agreement with previous studies. The positive geoid anomaly in South America could be explained largely by a dynamic effect of decoupling of the Nazca and South American plates. The negative changes of the geoid mostly relate to mid-oceanic ridges. The amplitude of the effect depends on the viscosity contrasts at WPB compared with the plate viscosity until its value reaches the limit of 2.5–3 orders of magnitude. This value might be considered as a level at which the plates are effectively decoupled. The effect of WPB exceeds the effect of LVV in the whole mantle and generally does not correlate with it. However, inclusion of LVV reduces the geoid perturbations due to WPB by about 10 m. Therefore, it is important to consider all factors together. The geoid changes mainly result from changes of the dynamic topography, which are about ?300 to +500 m. The obtained results show that including WPB may significantly improve the reliability of instantaneous global dynamic models.