唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。     

Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils,Fowlers Gap,Australia

Small plots and a dripper rainfall simulator were used to explore the significance of the intensity fluctuations (‘event profile’) within simulated rainfall events on infiltration and runoff from bare, crusted dryland soils. Rainfall was applied at mean rain rates of 10 mm/h. Fourteen simulated rainfall events each involved more than 5000 changes of intensity and included multipeak events with a 25‐mm/h peak of intensity early in the event or late in the event and an event that included a temporary cessation of rain. These are all event profiles commonly seen in natural rain but rarely addressed in rainfall simulation. A rectangular event profile of constant intensity, as commonly used in rainfall simulation experiments, was also adopted for comparative purposes. Results demonstrate that event profile exerts an important effect on infiltration and runoff for these soils and rainfall event profiles. ‘Uniform’ events of unvarying intensity yielded the lowest total runoff, the lowest peak runoff rate and the lowest runoff ratio (0.13). These parameters increased for ‘early peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.24) and reached maxima for ‘late peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.50). Differences in runoff ratio and peak runoff rate between the ‘uniform’ event profile and those of varying intensity were all statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01. Compared with ‘uniform’ runs, the varying intensity runs yielded larger runoff ratios and peak runoff rates, exceeding those of the ‘uniform’ events by 85%–570%. These results suggest that for small‐plot studies of infiltration and erosion, the continued use of constant rainfall intensity simulations may be sacrificing important information and misrepresenting the mechanisms involved in runoff generation. The implications of these findings for the ecohydrology of the research site, an area of contour‐aligned banded vegetation in which runoff and runon are of critical importance, are highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater Development Stress: Global‐Scale Indices Compared to Regional Modeling

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global‐scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional‐scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional‐scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional‐scale models with global‐scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.     

Spatial and temporal variability of mesozooplankton and tintinnid ciliates in a seasonally hypersaline estuary

The zooplankton community of Mission Bay, San Diego, California, was monitored over two years, to study spatial and temporal patterns and the response of zooplankton species composition to environmental variation. Data were collected every two weeks from six stations and included hydrographic parameters, dissolved nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton and zooplankton species composition. Hydrography varied seasonally, along a spatial gradient from the mouth to the back of the bay, and between the two years around the influence of rainfall. Spatially, Mission Bay could be divided into three regions during this study based on hydrography and zooplankton species composition. Zooplankton species composition followed a predictable seasonal progression, with different groups of species being characteristic to particular times of the year. Variability in zooplankton species composition was also evident between years, as certain species were more common in one or the other year of the study. Spatial patterns were more consistent than temporal ones, and related to distance from the mouth of the bay during much of the year and distance from freshwater inlets during the relatively short rainy season. Multivariate analysis revealed that variation in zooplankton species composition was best related to measured abiotic factors (temperature, salinity, rainfall, and tidal velocity).     

Long-Term Evaluation of Mulch Biowall Performance to Treat Chlorinated Solvents

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs), such as mulch biowalls, have been installed at numerous groundwater cleanup sites, and laboratory and field studies have demonstrated biotic and abiotic processes that degrade chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) in groundwater passing through these engineered remedies. However, the longevity of mulch biowalls remains a fundamental research question. Soil and groundwater sampling at seven mulch biowalls at Altus Air Force Base (AFB) approximately 10 years after installation demonstrated the ongoing degradation of CVOCs. Trichloroethene was not detected in five of seven groundwater samples collected from the biowall despite upgradient detections above federal drinking water standards. Microbial sampling established the presence of key dechlorinating bacteria and the abundance of genes encoding specific enzymes for degradation, high methane concentrations, low sulfate concentrations, and negative oxidation-reduction potential, all indicative of highly reducing conditions within the biowalls and favorable conditions for CVOC destruction via microbial reductive dechlorination. High cellulose content (>79%) of the mulch, elevated total organic carbon (TOC) content in groundwater, and elevated potentially bioavailable organic carbon (PBOC) measurements in soil samples further supports an ongoing, long-lived source of carbon. These results demonstrate the ongoing and long-term efficacy of the mulch biowalls at Altus AFB. In addition, concentrations of bacteria, TOC, PBOC, and other geochemical parameters suggest a modest impact of the biowalls downgradient. The continued presence of CVOCs downgradient may be attributable to back diffusion from low-permeability shale. However, the biowalls continue to provide benefits by removing CVOCs in groundwater, thus reducing further CVOC loading to the downgradient, low-permeability strata.     

An Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Results are presented from the first intercomparison of large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, in as much as they generate resolved turbulence and reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1-m and 2-m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to subgrid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.     

Comments on “Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming” by Labat et al.

We have examined the evidence presented by Labat et al. and found that (1) their claims for a 4% increase in global runoff arising from a 1 °C increase in air temperature and (2) that their article provides the “first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle” are not supported by the data presented. Our conclusions are based on the facts that (1) their discharge records exhibit non-climatic influences and trends, (2) their work cannot refute previous studies finding no relation between air temperature and runoff, (3) their conclusions cannot explain relations before 1925, and (4) the statistical significance of their results hinges on a single data point that exerts undue influence on the slope of the regression line. We argue that Labat et al. have not provided sufficient evidence to support their claim for having detected increases in global runoff resulting from climate warming.