北京奥运会期间气溶胶光学特性垂直分布特征

利用激光雷达观测资料,分析了奥运会期间气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,并结合后向轨迹方法对北京地区污染来源以及污染控制措施效果进行了初步分析。观测数据表明:1)2008年消光系数较之2007年在不同高度层的降幅并不相同,600m以下的年际降幅最为显著,1200～4000m高度范围次之。2)各类型消光系数垂直廓线出现频次的统计显示,2008年影响北京的主要廓线类型为边界层上部最高型,而非近地面最高型,说明2008年近地层消光系数有明显的降低。另外,利用后向轨迹法对近地层消光系数降低的原因进行了分析,结果表明,当近地层气团中污染物主要来自于北京周边地区时,400m以下气溶胶消光系数的年际降幅可达18.1%,这说明北京周边区域大气污染控制措施对改善北京近地面层气溶胶污染起到了重要作用。     

Atmospheric dispersion in the arctic: Winter-time boundary-layer measurements

The winter-time arctic atmospheric boundary layer was investigated with micrometeorological and SF₆ tracer measurements collected in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. The flat, snow-covered tundra surface at this site generates a very small (0.03 cm) surface roughness. The relatively warm maritime air mass originating over the nearby, partially frozen Beaufort Sea is cooled at the tundra surface resulting in strong (4 to 30 °C · (100 m)^-1) temperature inversions with light winds and a persistent weak (1 to 2 °C · (100 m)^-1) surface inversion with wind speeds up to 17 m s^-1. The absence of any diurnal atmospheric stability pattern during the study was due to the very limited solar insolation. Vertical profiles were measured with a multi-level mast from 1 to 17 m and with a Doppler acoustic sounder from 60 to 450 m. With high wind speeds, stable layers below 17 m and above 300 m were typically separated by a layer of neutral stability. Turbulence statistics and spectra calculated at a height of 33 m are similar to measurements reported for non-arctic, open terrain sites and indicate that the production of turbulence is primarily due to wind shear. The distribution of wind direction recorded at 1 Hz was frequently non-Gaussian for 1-hr periods but was always Gaussian for 5-min periods. We also observed non-Gaussian hourly averaged crosswind concentration profiles and assume that they can be modeled by calculating sequential short-term concentrations, using the 5-min standard deviation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations () to estimate a horizontal dispersion coefficient ( _y ), and constructing hourly concentrations by averaging the short-term results. Non-Gaussian hourly crosswind distributions are not unique to the arctic and can be observed at most field sites. A weak correlation between horizontal ( _v ) and vertical ( _w ) turbulence observed for both 1-hr and 5-min periods indicates that a single stability classification method is not sufficient to determine both vertical and horizontal dispersion at this site. An estimate of the vertical dispersion coefficient, _z , could be based on or a stability classification parameter which includes vertical thermal and wind shear effects (e.g., Monin-Obukhov length, L).     

Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

Modelling particle residence times in agricultural river basins using a sediment budget model and fallout radionuclide tracers

Contemporary patterns in river basin sediment dynamics have been widely investigated but the timescales associated with current sediment delivery processes have received much less attention. Furthermore, no studies have quantified the effect of recent land use change on the residence or travel times of sediment transported through river basins. Such information is crucial for understanding contemporary river basin function and responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances or management interventions. To address this need, we adopt a process‐based modelling approach to quantify changes in spatial patterns and residence times of suspended sediment in response to recent agricultural land cover change. The sediment budget model SedNet was coupled with a mass balance model of particle residence times based on atmospheric and fluvial fluxes of three fallout radionuclide tracers (⁷Be, excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs). Mean annual fluxes of suspended sediment were simulated in seven river basins (38–920 km²) in south‐west England for three land cover surveys (1990, 2000 and 2007). Suspended sediment flux increased across the basins from 0.5–15 to 1.4–37 kt y^‐1 in response to increasing arable land area between consecutive surveys. The residence time model divided basins into slow (upper surface soil) and rapid (river channel and connected hillslope sediment source area) transport compartments. Estimated theoretical residence times in the slow compartment decreased from 13–48 to 5.6–14 ky with the increase in basin sediment exports. In contrast, the short residence times for the rapid compartment increased from 185–256 to 260–368 d as the modelled connected source area expanded with increasing sediment supply from more arable land. The increase in sediment residence time was considered to correspond to longer sediment travel distances linked to larger connected source areas. This novel coupled modelling approach provides unique insight into river basin responses to recent environmental change not otherwise available from conventional measurement techniques. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.     

Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design

Environmental assessments generate and/or collect individual research efforts to answer policy-relevant questions and otherwise provide technical advice to decision-makers, typically legislators, international negotiators and regulators. Though one might think first of assessments in terms of the reports that they often produce, the implications of scientific assessment are better understood by viewing assessments as a social processes, rather than principally as a document. Assessment processes are embedded in different sorts of institutional settings, within which scientists, decision-makers, and advocates communicate to define relevant questions for analysis, mobilize certain kinds of experts and expertise, and interpret findings in particular ways. This social process perspective on assessment directs attention beyond the content of assessment reports to encompass questions the design of the social process. In this paper, we focus on four elements of assessment design that are too frequently under-appreciated: assessment context and initiation, science–policy interaction, participation in assessment processes, and assessment capacity. We show how widely these elements vary across five different assessments and discuss the implications of this variation.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.