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71.
72.
Tobias Lung Alessandro Dosio William Becker Carlo Lavalle Laurens M. Bouwer 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):211-227
Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options. 相似文献
73.
Abstract A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters. 相似文献
74.
Riccardo Camattari Alessandro Battelli Valerio Bellucci Vincenzo Guidi 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(1):1-10
The realization of a Laue lens for astronomical purposes involves the mass production of a series of crystalline tiles as optical components, allowing high-efficiency diffraction and high-resolution focusing of photons. Crystals with self-standing curved diffraction planes is a valid and promising solution. Exploiting the quasi-mosaic effect, it turns out to be possible to diffract radiation at higher resolution. In this paper we present the realization of 150 quasi-mosaic Ge samples, bent by grooving one of their largest surface. We show that grooving method is a viable technique to manufacture such crystals in a simple and very reproducible way, thus compatible with mass production. Realized samples present very homogenous curvature. Furthermore, with a specific chemical etch, it is possible to fine adjust one by one the radius of curvature of the grooved samples. Realized crystals was selected for the ASI’s Laue project, that involves the implementation of a prototype of a Laue lens for hard X- and soft γ-ray astronomy. 相似文献
75.
The 2009 L’Aquila, Italy earthquake highlighted the seismic vulnerability of historic masonry building structures due to improper "strengthening" retrofit work that has been done in the last 50 years. Italian seismic standards recommend the use of traditional reinforcement techniques such as replacing the original wooden roof structure with new reinforced concrete (RC) or steel elements, inserting RC tie-beams in the masonry and new RC floors, and using RC jacketing on the shear walls. The L’Aquila earthquake revealed the numerous limitations of these interventions, because they led to increased seismic forces (due to greater additional weight) and to deformation incompatibilities of the incorporated elements with the existing masonry walls. This paper provides a discussion of technical issues pertaining to the seismic retrofit of the Santa Maria di Collemaggio Basilica and in particular, the limitations of the last (2000) retrofit intervention. Considerable damage was caused to the church because of questionable actions and incorrect and improper technical choices. 相似文献
76.
The town of Zafferana Etnea, located on the southeastern slope of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), has been repeatedly threatened
by lava flows in recent centuries. The last serious threat occurred during the 1991–1993 eruption, when the lava front came
to a halt only 1.7 km from the centre of town. Morphostructural data derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys
carried out on Etna in 2005 have enabled us to evaluate the risk of lava invasion in a section (16 km2) of the Zafferana Etnea territory. Qualitative and quantitative results are obtained combining the information derived from
LiDAR analysis with geological, morphological and structural data using geographic information systems technology (GIS). The
study quantifies in unprecedented detail the areal extent and volume of forested and urban areas and its degree of exposure
to different levels of hazard from future lava invasion. Nearly 52% of the urban texture fall into areas of moderate to high
risk from lava invasion. Future land use planning should take these findings into account and promote new development preferentially
in areas of lower risk. 相似文献
77.
Simone Dell��Agnello Caterina Lops Giovanni O. Delle Monache Douglas G. Currie Manuele Martini Roberto Vittori Angioletta Coradini Cesare Dionisio Marco Garattini Alessandro Boni Claudio Cantone Riccardo March Giovanni Bellettini Roberto Tauraso Mauro Maiello Luca Porcelli Simone Berardi Nicola Intaglietta 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,32(1):19-35
MAGIA is a mission approved by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) for Phase A study. Using a single large-diameter laser retroreflector, a large laser retroreflector array and an atomic clock onboard MAGIA we propose to perform several fundamental physics and absolute positioning metrology experiments: VESPUCCI, an improved test of the gravitational redshift in the Earth?CMoon system predicted by General Relativity; MoonLIGHT-P, a precursor test of a second generation Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) payload for precision gravity and lunar science measurements under development for NASA, ASI and robotic missions of the proposed International Lunar Network (ILN); Selenocenter (the center of mass of the Moon), the determination of the position of the Moon center of mass with respect to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame/System (ITRF/ITRS); this will be compared to the one from Apollo and Lunokhod retroreflectors on the surface; MapRef, the absolute referencing of MAGIA??s lunar altimetry, gravity and geochemical maps with respect to the ITRF/ITRS. The absolute positioning of MAGIA will be achieved thanks to: (1) the laboratory characterization of the retroreflector performance at INFN-LNF; (2) the precision tracking by the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS), which gives two fundamental contributions to the ITRF/ITRS, i.e. the metrological definition of the geocenter (the Earth center of mass) and of the scale of length; (3) the radio science and accelerometer payloads; (4) support by the ASI Space Geodesy Center in Matera, Italy. Future ILN geodetic nodes equipped with MoonLIGHT and the Apollo/Lunokhod retroreflectors will become the first realization of the International Moon Reference Frame (IMRF), the lunar analog of the ITRF. 相似文献
78.
Giuseppe Nunnari Giuseppe Puglisi Alessandro Spata 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(8):1619-1641
In this paper we describe a warning system based on statistical analysis for the purpose of monitoring ground deformation
at the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli Volcano, Sicily). After a statistical analysis of ground deformation time-series measured
at Stromboli by the monitoring system known as THEODOROS (THEOdolite and Distancemeter Robot Observatory of Stromboli), the
paper describes the solution adopted for implementing the warning system. A robust statistical index has been defined in order
to evaluate the movements of the area. A fuzzy approach has been proposed to evaluate an AI (Alarm Intensity) index which
indicates the level of hazard of the Sciara del Fuoco sliding. 相似文献
79.
Alessandro Bosman Daniele Casalbore Claudia Romagnoli Francesco Latino Chiocci 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(7):1-12
Five consecutive multibeam bathymetries collected before, during, and after the 2007 Stromboli eruption, combined with visual inspections, allowed us to document the morphological evolution of an ‘a’ā lava-fed delta and to reconstruct the main processes acting during its submarine emplacement. The 2007 Stromboli delta extended down to 600-m water depth and covered an area of 420?×?103 m2, with a maximum thickness of 65 m and a total estimated volume of ≈7?×?106 m3, i.e., three times larger than its subaerial counterpart. The lava delta grew mainly through the emplacement of discrete lobes about 50–150 m in size. Lobes were fed from point sources along the paleoshoreline, and their subaqueous pathways seem to be mainly controlled by the submarine morphology, with flows mostly filling in depressions left by previous lobes. The main controlling factors on the lobe morphology and thickness are the effusion rates and the pre-eruption morphology, i.e., the geometry and gradients of the basal surface. Data also shows that sudden slope failure of portions of the submarine delta may occur simultaneously with accretion, implying that a significant part of the delta material can be transported to greater depths by submarine gravity flows. The present study is relevant for future monitoring and hazard assessment during the growth of active lava-fed deltas as well as for a better interpretation of ancient volcaniclastic successions inland. 相似文献
80.
Alessandro Corsini Cristina Castagnetti Eleonora Bertacchini Riccardo Rivola Francesco Ronchetti Alessandro Capra 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(11):1330-1338
A slow moving compound rock slide located in the northern Apennines of Italy was mapped and monitored through the integration of Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS), multi‐temporal long‐range Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), and Automated Total Station (ATS) measurements. Landslide features were mapped using a High Resolution Digital Terrain Model (HR‐DTM) obtained by merging ALS and TLS data in an Iterative Closest Point (ICP) procedure. Slope movements in the order of centimeters to a few decimeters were quantified with Differential TLS (D‐TLS) based on a Surface Matching approach and supported by ATS data to define stable reference surfaces. The integrated approach allowed mapping of the composite geomorphic features of the rock slide under examination, revealing its complex dynamic nature and further proving that laser scanning is a versatile and widely applicable tool for slope process analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献