Classification issues within ensemble-based simulation: application to surge floods forecasting

The paper proposes a high-level conceptual and technological approach to manage the ensemble-based simulation, taking into account changing states of both simulated system and system of models. The approach includes systematization of ensemble-based modeling and simulation techniques, analysis of simulation results, quality assessments, and detailed analysis of ensemble management procedures using classification operators. The technological basis for such an approach includes ensemble-based simulation techniques using domain-specific software combined within a composite application; data science approaches for analysis of available datasets (simulation data, observations, situation assessments, etc.). Within this work, a set of case studies is addressed to examine the opportunities provided by the developed approach considering ensemble-based simulation of storm surges for flood prediction in St. Petersburg, Russia as an example.     

Interaction of short internal waves with the ice cover in an Arctic fjord

Measurements of the short internal waves in a shallow Arctic fjord revealed that the fluctuations of the temperature and current velocity with a period of approximately 10 min and the amplitude of the internal waves around 1 m correlate with the ice cover fluctuations of the same period with an approximate amplitude of a few millimeters. These results are consistent with the theory.     

Separation of radiation components and estimates of the red shifts of the BL Lac objects OQ 530 and OI 090.4 on the basis of photometric data

Leningrad State University. Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 231–240, September–October, 1989.     

Coordinated monitoring of the eccentric O-star binary Iota Orionis: optical spectroscopy and photometry

With the objective of investigating the windwind collision phenomenon and supporting contemporaneous X-ray observations, we have organized a large-scale, coordinated optical monitoring campaign of the massive, highly eccentric O9 III+B1 III binary Iota Orionis. Successfully separating the spectra of the components, we refine the orbital elements and confirm the rapid apsidal motion in the system. We also see strong interaction between the components during periastron passage and detect phase-locked variability in the spectrum of the secondary star. However, we find no unambiguous signs of the bow shock crashing on the surface of the secondary, despite the predictions of hydrodynamic simulations. Combining all available photometric data, we find rapid, phase-locked variations and model them numerically, thus restricting the orbital inclination to 50° i 70°.     

The state of the aquatic environment and biota during operation of trout-breeding pond farms

The paper presents the results of studying chemical and biological quality characteristics of the aquatic environment in the area of operation of trout farms in Kondopoga Bay, Onega Lake. The concentrations of biochemically labile substances and phosphorus were found to increase near the ponds. The development dynamics of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and benthic organisms in the zone of pond farms. When the procedure of fish production is strictly followed, the effect of ponds on the aquatic environment and biota is minimal.     

Typical fields of wind waves and swells in the Northern Pacific

Using all of the atmospheric patterns classified by Polyakova A.M., we accomplished calculations of the surface wind fields over the North Pacific for wind waves observable 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours after a storm and the swell waves observable 24, 48, and 72 hours after a storm. The considerable extension of the ocean creates quasi-unlimited speeding up of the wind waves during continuous strong winds (over 20 meters per second). This determines the presence of wide areas of highly developed wind waves with a 5% probability that the wave heights will exceed the 10–12 meter estimates. The swell waves decay faster: their height reduces by half in 24 h, while, in 72 h, they achieve the background level of the ocean’s swell waves.     

Wolf-rayet stars as (potentially) fast rotators with rotationally-induced instability

Indirect lines of evidence for fast axial rotation of WR stars are described, such as: a) elongated cavities around WRs; b) flattening of WR winds; c) solar-like flares of WRs; d) non-radial pulsations of the WR wind in the presence of a massive companion in a binary system.     

Systematic Errors of High–Precision Photometric Catalogues

A very accurate imitation of Hipparcos and Tycho Hp, B _T, andV _T magnitudes was made using W, B, V, R magnitudes from the Tien Shan photometric catalogue. The calculated magnitudes were compared to the observed ones. It is shown that there are systematic differences between calculated and observed magnitudes. The systematic errors are supposed to be bound up with the sky scanning procedure on the Hipparcos satellite. Polynomials in powers of coordinates have been proposed to take into account the systematic errors. 6558 stars have been found to be appropriate high-precision photometric standards. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.