Modelling of ground acceleration in the near source range: the case of 1976, Friuli earthquake (M = 6.5), northern Italy

A mixed statistical-deterministic model of earthquake rupture is developed for evaluating the strong ground motion in the near source range (receiver distance comparable to the fault length). The source parametrization is based on the k-square model and the propagation is computed by asymptotic Green's functions. The method is applied to the case of 1976, Friuli earthquake (M = 6.5) in northern Italy which occurred on a low-dip thrusting fault. Acceleration records at 29 stations are computed for 100 simulations of rupture histories. The mean value map of peak ground accelerations shows clearly a maximum to the south due to the inner geometry and directivity of the source. The variation of the estimated PGA versus the epicentral distance is strongly dependent on azimuth and is not decreasing monotonically. The comparison of these curves with those predicted by empirical acceleration–distance relationships shows discrepancies in the near source distance range. This study shows the importance of considering the complexity of the source rupture process for strong motion estimate in the near source range.     

Scaling of peak ground motions from digital recordings of small earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,southern Italy

The dependence of peak ground acceleration and velocity on seismic moment is studied for a set of small earthquakes (0.7<M _L<3.2) recorded digitally at distances of a few km in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area near Naples, Italy, during the ground uplift episode of 1982–1984. Numerical simulations, using the -square spectral model with constant stress drop and ane ^–kf high frequency decay, fit well both the velocity and acceleration data for an averagek=0.015. The observed ground motions in the 1–24 Hz frequency band appear to consist of radiation from simple sources modified only slightly by attenuation effects. Moreover, the scaling of peak values agrees closely with those determined in nonvolcanic areas, once the difference in stress drop is taken into account.     

Tectonic structure and post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre, Calabrian Arc, southern Italy: Geological, petrological and radiometric evidences

Conflicting opinions exist concerning the structure and the post-Hercynian evolution of the Serre. The present paper deals with these topics on the basis of new geological, petrological and radiometric evidence. The composition of the so-called Stilo and Polia-Copanello units has been redefined. The above domains—former sections of upper and lower Palaeozoic continental crust respectively—came into contact, due to transcurrent movements 130–140 Ma ago. A significant vertical component during the transcurrent movements, probably, exhumed the former section of lower crust. The above domains, juxtaposed, were successively involved as a single kinematic body in the Alpine orogenesis. The results enable us to make inferences for the Calabrian Arc evolution and call attention to similarities between an Austro-Alpine element (Stilo + Polia-Copanello) of the Calabrian chain and a South-Alpine sector of the Alps (Ivrea + Ceneri zones).     

A quantitative approach to trace element and Sr isotope evolution in the Adamello batholith (northern Italy)

A development of De Paolo's mathematical procedure (1981) for magmatic AFC (Assimilation-Fractional Crystallization) processes is discussed with respect to both trace element and Sr isotopic ratio behaviours during the genesis and evolution of Adamello batholith (northern Italy). Resolution of a two equation-system (one relative to ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio variation in a magma generated by an AFC process, the other to its trace element content variations) gives the F (mass of magma at time t/mass of initial magma) and D (bulk partition coefficient) values, by which one can deduce the r (rate of assimilation/rate of crystallization) value during each step of magmatic evolution. This quantitative approach suggests that: 1) there was a common precursor magma for all the Adamello granitoids, with a Mg-rich tholeiitic composition; 2) each intrusive unit appears to have been generated by different extents of AFC; 3) the trace element distribution in the magma seems essentially influenced by mineral fractionation, rather than by the composition of the assimilated crustal material.     

Seismic sources and attenuation properties at the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

Microearthquake digital data collected at Campi Flegrei during the recent (1982–1985) ground uplift episode have been analyzed in order to infer source and medium seismic properties. The main results obtained from these analyses are:

1. Hypocenter distribution and the size of the seismic zone do not change with time and do not depend on the ground uplift rate. Events occurred clustered in time with no simple causal relations between the cluster occurrences and their energy.
2. Anelastic attenuation does not depend strongly on frequency, showing a constant pattern at high frequencies. The observed values of low and high frequency attenuation, due to the short source receiver distances, do not seriously affect the spectral content of signals radiated by the sources.
3. A constant Brune stress drop pattern (～4–5 bars) as a function of seismic moment is observed. This indicates that the manner of fracturing is almost independent on magnitude of earthquakes (hypothesis of self-similarity (Aki, 1967)). Seismic processes in a prefractured medium can explain the observed small stress drop values.
4. Focal mechanisms from moment tensor estimates show that radiation patterns are mostly well interpreted in terms of double couple source models.
5. The scaling of peak ground motion parameters (A _max andV _max vs seismic moment) can be explained by an ω² source model (constant stress drop) multiplied by an exponential function with a small decay parameter, which takes into account the measured attenuation.

These results support the hypothesis of earthquakes generated by simple shear fractures along prefractured structures as a response to changes in the stress field due to the ground deformation.     

A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method

Numerous methods have been proposed for landslide probability zonation of the landscape by means of a Geographic Information System (GIS). Among the multivariate methods, i.e. those methods which simultaneously take into account all the factors contributing to instability, the Conditional Analysis method applied to a subdivision of the territory into Unique Condition Units is particularly straightforward from a conceptual point of view and particularly suited to the use of a GIS. In fact, working on the principle that future landslides are more likely to occur under those conditions which led to past instability, landslide susceptibility is defined by computing the landslide density in correspondence with different combinations of instability factors. The conceptual simplicity of this method, however, does not necessarily imply that it is simple to implement, especially as it requires rather complex operations and a high number of GIS commands. Moreover, there is the possibility that, in order to achieve satisfactory results, the procedure has to be repeated a few times changing the factors or modifying the class subdivision. To solve this problem, we created a shell program which, by combining the shell commands, the GIS Geographical Research Analysis Support System (GRASS) commands and the gawk language commands, carries out the whole procedure automatically. This makes the construction of a Landslide Susceptibility Map easy and fast for large areas too, and even when a high spatial resolution is adopted, as shown by application of the procedure to the Parma River basin, in the Italian Northern Apennines.     

Establishing a transboundary network of marine protected areas: Diplomatic and management options for the east African context

International conservation efforts and cooperation are increasingly necessary, particularly at an ecoregion level, for the achievement of international targets for protecting biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems. Whereas more than 11 percent of land is protected, less than 1 percent of marine space is similarly protected. Transboundary networks of marine protected areas and transboundary marine protected areas (TBMPAs) are an essential form of cooperation for meeting these international targets. This paper explores the diplomatic and political options for regional and sub-regional cooperation between Tanzania, Mozambique, and South Africa, for the establishment of transboundary conservation mechanisms in the Eastern African Marine Ecoregion (EAME). Five options for the establishment and management of these mechanisms are presented, together with actions to be taken to facilitate cooperation. The paper deal with a proposed strategy for the implementation of transboundary conservation mechanisms, focusing on TBMPAs, between the three countries at a biogeographical/sub-regional level, supported by lessons learnt in other transboundary marine conservation experiences. The paper concludes that although political will may exist among States sharing borders to establish TBMPAs, the complexity of dealing with sub-regional realities is a difficult obstacle to overcome in a single step. The situation at each border must be taken into account in order that different multi-scale and multivariate solutions, supported by a common baseline will ultimately converge in a common trilateral framework. Finally, a two-step approach seems to be in course with the declaration (October 2009) of a TBMPA linking Ponta do Ouro in Mozambique to iSimangaliso Wetland Park in South Africa, following one of the options formerly presented.     

Paleomagnetic constraints on the Plio–Pleistocene geodynamic evolution of the external central–northern Apennines (Italy)

We report on new paleomagnetic results obtained from 27 sites sampled in the Plio–Pleistocene sequences at the external front of the central–northern Apennines. Previous analyses of Miocene (Messinian) sediments indicated that the present shape of the northern Apenninic arc is due to the oroclinal bending of an originally straight belt oriented around N320° and that vertical axis rotations accompanied the migration of the thrust fronts toward the Adriatic foreland [F. Speranza et al., J. Geophys. Res. 102 (1997) 3153–3166]. We tried to provide new paleomagnetic constraints for the timing and rates of the oroclinal bending process during the Pliocene and the Pleistocene. The results suggest that CCW rotations observed in the northern part of the studied area are possibly younger than 3 Ma. No regional rotation is recorded in the Pliocene and Pleistocene sediments from the southern part of the study area, analogously to the Messinian sediments of the ‘Acquasanta’ domain of Speranza et al. [F. Speranza et al., J. Geophys. Res. 102 (1997) 3153–3166]. A local significant CCW rotation (23°±10°) is identified in the Early Pleistocene sediments that crop out along the Adriatic coast between Ascoli and Pescara, indicating differential motion of the thrust sheets. This rotation must be younger than 1.43 Ma.