Statistical analysis of earthquake activity at Etna volcano (March 1981 eruption)

Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.     

Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo ^Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino^®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo ^Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.     

Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements

The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.     

Simulated shaking maps for the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, Ms 6.9: Insights on the observed damage distribution

The region stricken by the Irpinia earthquake (Ms=6.9) on 1980, along the Southern Appenninc chain, is one of the highest seismic hazard areas of Italian peninsula.     

Seismic images and rock properties of the very shallow structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

In September 2001, an extensive active-seismic investigation (Serapis experiment) was carried out in the Gulfs of Naples and Pozzuoli, with the aim of investigating and reconstructing the shallow crustal structure of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and possibly identifying its feeding system at depth. The present study provides a joint analysis of the very shallow seismic reflection data and tomographic images based on the Serapis dataset. This is achieved by reflection seismic sections obtained by the 3D data gathering and through refined P-velocity images of the shallowest layer of Pozzuoli Gulf (z < 1,000 m). From the refined Vp model, the overall picture of the velocity distribution confirms the presence of a complex arc-shaped anomaly that borders the bay offshore. The deeper part of the anomaly (beneath 700 m, with Vp > 3,500 m/s) correlates with units made up of agglomerate tuffs and interbedded lava, which form the southern edge of the caldera, which was probably formed following the two large ignimbritic eruptions that marked the evolutionary history of the area under study. The upper part of the anomaly that tends to split into two parallel arcs is correlated with dikes, volcanic mounds and hydrothermal alteration zones noted in previous shallow reflection seismic analyses. The depth of the transition between the upper and lower parts of the anomaly is characterized by an abrupt Vp increase on the one-dimensional (1D) profiles extracted from the 3D tomographic model and by the presence of a strong reflector located at about 0.6/0.7 s Two Way Time (TWT) on Common Mid Point gathers. The move-out velocity analysis and stack of the P–P and P–S reflections at the layer bottom allowed to estimate relatively high Vp/Vs values (3.7 ± 0.9). This hypothesis has been tested by a theoretical rock physical modeling of the Vp/Vs ratio as a function of porosity suggesting that the shallow layer is likely formed by incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the post-caldera activity.     

Evaluation of pseudostatic active earth pressure coefficient of cantilever retaining walls

A stress plasticity solution is proposed for evaluating the gravitational and dynamic active earth pressures on cantilever retaining walls with long heel. The solution takes into account the friction angle of the soil, wall roughness, backfill inclination and horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations. It is validated by means of the comparison with both traditional limit equilibrium methods (e.g. Mononobe–Okabe equations) and static and pseudostatic numerical FLAC analyses. For numerical analyses the soil is modelled as an elasto-plastic non-dilatant medium obeying the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion, while the wall is elastic. The solutions for the horizontal and vertical seismic coefficients are proposed, which allow one to determine the intensity of the active thrust and its inclination δ with respect to the horizontal. It is demonstrated that the latter also depends on the soil friction angle φ. The inclination in seismic conditions δ_E is greater than the one in static conditions, δ_S, usually adopted in both cases. As a matter of fact, since wall stability conditions improve with the increase of inclination δ, the present method gives solutions that are less onerous than traditional ones, producing less conservative wall designs. Finally pseudostatic results are compared with proper dynamic analyses (by FLAC code) performed utilising four Italian accelerometric time-histories as input ground motion.     

A one-dimensional viscoelastic and viscoplastic constitutive approach to modeling the delayed behavior of clay and organic soils

Accurate modeling of the time-dependent behavior of geomaterials is of great importance in a number of engineering structures interacting with soft, highly compressible clay layers or with organic clays and peats. In this work, a uniaxial constitutive model, based on Perzyna’s overstress theory and directly extendible to multiaxial stress conditions, is formulated and validated. The proposed constitutive approach essentially has three innovative aspects. The first concerns the implementation of two viscoplastic mechanisms within Perzyna’s theory in order to distinguish between short-term (quasi-instantaneous) and long-term plastic responses. Similarly, elastic response is simulated by combining an instantaneous and a long-term viscous deformation mechanism. The second innovative aspect concerns the use of a bespoke logarithmic law for viscous effects, which has never been used before to simulate delayed soil behavior (as far as the authors are aware). The third concerns the model’s extensive validation by simulating a number of different laboratory test results, including conventional and unconventional oedometer tests with small and large load increments/decrements and wide and narrow loading/unloading cycles, constant rates of stress and strain tests, and oedometer tests performed in a Rowe consolidation cell with measurement of pore pressure dissipation.     

Diatom response to mid-Holocene climate change in Lago di Massaciuccoli (Tuscany,Italy)

A sedimentary sequence from the Mediterranean coastal basin of Lago di Massaciuccoli (Tuscany, Italy) was analyzed for diatoms, covering two periods over the past ca. 7,000 years. The site was selected because it is situated in a sensitive position at the limit between Mediterranean and Central European climates and biomes. Our focus is on the impact of accelerated human activity during the recent past (water uptake in the catchment, sand extraction, wastewater discharge) and on a phase of evident change between 6,600 and 5,400 cal. BP. The diatom record suggests fresh-water conditions and rather high lake levels until ca. 6,000 years ago. The subsequent shift towards brackish conditions peaked at around 5,500 cal. BP. We relate this shift to a pervasive change towards a drier climate that has been observed elsewhere in the Mediterranean and Northern African regions, and stands in contrast to the shift towards a cooler and more humid climate in the nearby Alps (200–350 km distant) and in central Europe. Pollen and charcoal records from a previous study on the same sedimentary sequence were used to gain additional insights about the causes of the changes in the diatom assemblages and apply numerical methods to search for common trends and correlations.     

Estimates of the γ-ray flux from Sagittarius A

Analysis of the anisotropy of the -ray background observed by Clarket al. (1968) has lead to the suggestion that part of the anisotropy be due to a source at the Galactic Centre. The complex structure of radio and infrared emission of the region of Sgr A is considered. The -ray flux arising from Compton scattering and ₀ decay is calculated. For a value of the magnetic field H10^–4 Gauss, corresponding to equipartition, the -ray flux above 100 MeV at Earth from the Sgr A source is expected to lie between 10^–6 and 10^–5 gamma/cm² sec. Such a source should be detectable in the near future.