Thermal anomalies associated with shallow gas hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano, Lake Baikal

Thermal measurements and hydrate mapping in the vicinity of the K-2 mud volcano in Lake Baikal have revealed a particular type of association of thermal anomalies (29–121?mW?m^–2) near hydrate-forming layers. Detailed coring within K-2 showed that hydrates are restricted to two distinct zones at sub-bottom depths exceeding 70–300?cm. Temperature data from stations with hydrate recovery and degassing features all display low thermal gradients. Otherwise, the thermal gradients within the mud volcano are generally increased. These findings imply a more complicated thermal regime than often assumed for mud volcanoes, with important roles for both fluids and hydrates. The coexistence of neighbouring low and high thermal anomalies is interpreted to result from discharging and recharging fluid activity, rather than hydrate thermodynamics. It is suggested that hydrates play a key role in controlling the fluid circulation pattern at an early stage. At a later stage, the inflow of undersaturated lake water would favour the dissolution of structure I hydrates and the formation of structure II hydrates, the latter having been observed on top of structure I hydrates in the K-2 mud volcano.     

Formation events of shoreline sand waves on a gravel beach

Kilometric-scale shoreline sand waves (KSSW) have been observed in the north-east flank of the Dungeness Cuspate Foreland (southeastern coast of the UK). They consist of two bumps separated by embayments with a 350–450-m spacing. We have analysed 36 shoreline surveys of 2-km length using the Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT), from 2005 to 2016, and seven topographic surveys encompassing the intertidal zone, from 2010 to 2016. The data set shows two clear formation events. In order to test the role of high-angle waves on the KSSW formation, the 10-year wave series is propagated from the wave buoy located at 43 m depth up to a location in front of the undulations at 4 m depth using the SWAN wave model. The dominating SW waves arrive with a very high incidence angle (～ 80°) while the NE waves arrive almost shore normal. The ratio R, which measures the degree of dominance of high-angle waves with respect to low-angle waves, correlates well with the shoreline DFT magnitude values of the observed wavelength undulations. In particular, the highest R values coincide with the formation events. Finally, a linear stability model based on the one-line approximation is applied to the Dungeness profile and the 10-year propagated wave series. It predicts accurately the formation moments, with positive growth rates in the correct order of magnitude for wavelengths similar to the observed ones. All these results confirm that the shoreline undulations in Dungeness are self-organized and that the underlying formation mechanism is the high-angle wave instability. The two detected formation events provide a unique opportunity to validate the existing morphodynamic models that include such instability.     

Temporal gravity and elevation changes at Pacaya volcano, Guatemala

Repetitive gravity surveys at Pacaya Volcano from 1975 to 1979 revealed time-dependent changes in the gravity field, which although related to volcanic activity, could not be uniquely attributed to elevation changes or mass redistributions because elevation control was lacking. Elevation control was established in July 1979 using precision leveling. Relative elevation and gravity measurements in June and July of 1979, January 1980 and June 1980 indicate concurrent gravity and elevation changes contemporaneous with variations in eruptive activity. From June 1979 to January 1980, while fumarolic activity was dominant, relative to the most remote station, the volcano deflated by at least 195 mm and the gravity field increased by up to 221 μgal. From January 1980 to June 1980, preceding a Strombolian eruption beginning about June 1980, the volcano inflated by at least 19 mm and the gravity field decreased by up to 231 μgal. Gravity change maps for the intervals of January 1978 to June 1979, June 1979 to January 1980, and January 1980 to June 1980 show areas subject to repeated positive and negative gravity change. Some of those areas coincide with areas of maximum elevation change observed in the June 1979–January 1980 and January 1980–June 1980 intervals; however, gravity changes were observed in areas lacking elevation changes. Adjusting observed gravity changes for elevation changes using a free-air value of −3.086 μgal/cm does not substantially alter the pattern, position, or amplitude of the gravity changes. The relationship between gravity changes, elevation changes, and volcanic activity requires a mechanism producing gravity decreases with little inflation during times of increased eruptive activity, and producing gravity increases with subsidence during times of declining eruptive activity. Such a pattern of changes could be produced by a near-surface magma body in which high-density degassed magma is displaced volume for volume by low-density vesiculated magma during time of increased eruptive activity, and in which loss of gasses by fumarolic activity produces a density increase and a reduction in volume of the magma body during periods of declining eruptive activity. Such a pattern of changes could also be induced by a low-density, vesiculated magma body moving upward in the volcanic pile by piecemeal stoping where the high-density rocks of the volcano are replaced on a volume for volume basis by low-density magma during periods of increasing eruptive activity; and by later density increases and magma body volume reductions accompanying devolatilization and devesiculation during periods of declining eruptive activity. Simple density change and density contrast models involving shallow magma bodies at depths of 100 to 200 m indicate density changes or contrasts of about 0.4 g/cm³ could produce the gravity changes.     

西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳电性结构研究

为了探测西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳浅部和深部构造沿东西和南北方向的变化特征,在雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区布设了三条南北向剖面(错那—墨竹工卡、亚东—雪古拉、吉隆—措勤),采用超宽频带大地电磁测深方法进行了地壳、上地幔电性结构探测研究,发现该区主要电性结构特征为：1. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近表层发育大规模的高阻体,岩体延伸最深达30km以上,是冈底斯花岗岩体的反映. 2. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带的南部有小规模的良导体,在其下方和北侧发育有大规模良导体. 3. 沿剖面从南往北壳内普遍发育良导体,各良导体主体间是不连续的,规模逐渐增大,总体北倾,在缝合带附近产状较陡. 4. 在雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近良导体由西往东规模逐渐增大,导电性逐渐变好,相对雅鲁藏布江在剖面上的位置逐渐南移. 这些重要的电性特征可能是印度板块向北俯冲所形成的,深部大规模的良导体特征沿东西向的差异可能是板块碰撞引起物质沿东西向运移作用的结果.     

Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.     

A Research Synthesis and Theoretical Model of Relationships Between Factors Influencing Outdoor Domestic Water Consumption

Outdoor domestic water use is often targeted by demand management strategies. However, despite a rich empirical evidence base coming from primary studies, it is still unclear how factors that influence this type of demand interact and which are the most suitable to be addressed by water conservation programs. Based on 423 scientific contributions, we develop a research synthesis combining a variety of techniques to create a theoretical model of the relationships among factors most consistently observed in the literature. The findings uncover a great degree of complexity in terms of interactions between spatial-structural, social-structural, and cultural and psychological factors at different scales. For researchers, the methodology and the outcomes can be useful to better frame existing and future research within the literature on the topic. In practice, the adaptation of the theoretical model to local specificities can facilitate the design of more efficient and integrated demand management strategies.     

The Beach Crowding Index: A Tool for Assessing Social Carrying Capacity of Vulnerable Beaches

The aim of this article is to introduce the Beach Crowding Index (BCI), a procedure to assess the social carrying capacity of vulnerable beaches. The study uses the people at one time (PAOT) approach and data gathered weekly throughout the bathing season regarding the number of beachgoers in 100 m² cells of the beach to assess how many beachgoers it can comfortably hold. The procedure is based on fieldwork, interviews with beachgoers, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis and has been tested on four beaches in protected areas on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. On a scale from 0 to 4, minimum scores throughout the bathing season are 0.7 and maximum 3.7, although results showed wide variation between the beaches, the section of the beach, and the time of day. This study suggests that determining the location of beachgoers and collecting a long-term series of data is fundamental to assessing social carrying capacity and that the BCI procedure can be used for a large number of applications.     

Conserving Biodiversity in Farm Animals: Do Farmer and Public Biodiversity Knowledge and Awareness Matter?

Increases in biodiversity losses are a growing concern globally. In farm animals, related concerns about losses in genetic diversity have potentially increased with the emergence of breeding technologies that allow for faster genetic change in herds. Farmer and public acceptance of specific breeding practices can be influenced by a number of factors, including concerns about biodiversity and knowledge of biodiversity. The link between these factors and acceptance of new genetic technologies, if it exists, may help explain concerns about genetic technologies. This article examines the effect of attitudes and knowledge about biodiversity on the acceptance of genomic selection in livestock production using farmer and public survey data from Canada. Our results suggest that the link between biodiversity concerns and the acceptance of genomic selection is more robust for the public than for farmers. We also find that biodiversity knowledge and attitudes have opposite effects on acceptance of genomic selection.     

Soil fertility evolution and landscape dynamics in a Mediterranean area: a case study in the Sant Llorenç Natural Park (Barcelona, NE Spain)

The cartography of land covers was used to study fertility and soil evolution in a mountainous Mediterranean area during the anthropocene period ( Crutzen P J 2002 Geology of mankind Nature 415 23). The aim was to determine changes in fertility as agricultural lands were abandoned in the 14 000 hectare area that constitutes Sant Llorenç del Munt Natural Park in a pre-coastal Catalan mountain range (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula). The analysis of land covers using vegetation maps, orthorectified images and aerial photography has allowed us to differentiate six vegetation groups: holm-oak wood, pine grove, oak wood, scrub, active agricultural fields and abandoned agricultural fields. The anthropic covers over the past 100 years were subdivided into five categories: active fields and those abandoned over four time periods. Study variables include field shape (concave, convex, flat), orientation (north, south) and slope (ranging from 12º to 24º). The parameters used for the physical-chemical soil analysis included organic material, phosphorous and potassium; fertility was classified based on groups, types and classes. The results indicate that even when the visual appearance of certain landscapes is similar, the edaphic characteristics may be very different. Changes induced by human disturbance share this phenomenon. Therefore, land management should be considered globally, taking into account vegetation, soils and water as interdependent factors, since it is their interaction that produces landscape and most affects its evolution over time.     

Interpreting the Ca isotope record of marine biogenic carbonates

An 18 million year record of the Ca isotopic composition (δ^44/42Ca) of planktonic foraminiferans from ODP site 925, in the Atlantic, on the Ceara Rise, provides the opportunity for critical analysis of Ca isotope-based reconstructions of the Ca cycle. δ^44/42Ca in this record averages +0.37 ± 0.05 (1σ SD) and ranges from +0.21‰ to +0.52‰. The record is a good match to previously published Neogene Ca isotope records based on foraminiferans, but is not similar to the record based on bulk carbonates, which has values that are as much as 0.25‰ lower. Bulk carbonate and planktonic foraminiferans from core tops differ slightly in their δ^44/42Ca (i.e., by 0.06 ± 0.06‰ (n = 5)), while the difference between bulk carbonate and foraminiferan values further back in time is markedly larger, leaving open the question of the cause of the difference. Modeling the global Ca cycle from downcore variations in δ^44/42Ca by assuming fixed values for the isotopic composition of weathering inputs (δ^44/42Ca_w) and for isotope fractionation associated with the production of carbonate sediments (Δ_sed) results in unrealistically large variations in the total mass of Ca²⁺ in the oceans over the Neogene. Alternatively, variations of ±0.05‰ in the Ca isotope composition of weathering inputs or in the extent of fractionation of Ca isotopes during calcareous sediment formation could entirely account for variations in the Ca isotopic composition of marine carbonates. Ca isotope fractionation during continental weathering, such as has been recently observed, could easily result in variations in δ^44/42Ca_w of a few tenths of permil. Likewise a difference in the fractionation factors associated with aragonite versus calcite formation could drive shifts in Δ_sed of tenths of permil with shifts in the relative output of calcite and aragonite from the ocean. Until better constraints on variations in δ^44/42Ca_w and Δ_sed have been established, modeling the Ca²⁺ content of seawater from Ca isotope curves should be approached cautiously.