Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

On the height scale of magnetic fields above sunspots derived from RATAN-600 observations

Model calculations of the S-component are compared with observations of the RATAN-600 telescope at five discrete microwave frequencies referring to active region McMath No. 15974 on May 1, 1979. The spectral variations of source diameter, flux density, and degree of polarization are used to derive the height scale of the magnetic field in accordance with a magnetic dipole distribution under the assumption of advanced temperature and electron density distributions according to most recent EUV observations.     

Spectral photometry of selected areas of the lunar surface during maximum solar activity

Photoelectric observations have been carried out during maximum solar activity in order to investigate the variation of the brightness of the lunar surface with the solar cycle and to detect the possiblity of existing colour anomaly. The brightness data, using a wide-passband filter, do not show any evidence of variation with the solar cycle. No colour anomaly is found for the investigated lunar regions, and the doubt that has been felt by some investigators about the nonexistence of certain colour indices' variation with phase is not confirmed.     

Study of magnetic field,rock magnetization and lunar electrical conductivity in the Bay Le Monnier

The data of three-times repeated magnetic survey of the section of Lunokhod-2 route 1.5 km long are analyzed. The linear size of the regions of magnetic field anomalies disclosed is 200–300 m. The results of magnetic survey near the tectonic break of Straight Rille and near the south rim of crater Le Monnier were used for estimation of rock magnetization in situ. It is shown that mare basalts in south-east region of crater Le Monnier have oblique magnetization (at the angle ç30° to horizon). The magnitude of magnetization is × 5 × 10^–5 G cm g^–1. The south-east slope of the crater Le Monnier is magnetized roughly vertically, the upper limit of magnetization of the rocks of the rim is ç 1 × 10^–5 G cm³ g^–1. The results of an analysis of 160 magnetic field variations recorded by Lunokhod-2 indicate that the horizontal components of variations have nearly linear polarization. The principal axes of hodographs stretch in the direction north-west-south-east. Such a polarization of variations may be due to an increase of the thickness of the upper isolated layer under Mare Serenitatis.     

Quasi-periodic orbits about the translunar libration point

Analytical solutions for quasi-periodic orbits about the translunar libration point are obtained by using the method of Lindstedt-Poincaré and computerized algebraic manipulations. The solutions include the effects of nonlinearities, lunar orbital eccentricity, and the Sun's gravitational field. For a small-amplitude orbit, the orbital path as viewed from the Earth traces out a Lissajous figure. This is due to a small difference in the fundamental frequencies of the in-plane and out-of-plane oscillations. However, when the amplitude of the in-plane oscillation is greater than 32 379 km, there is a corresponding value of the out-of-plane amplitude that will produce a path where the fundamental frequencies are equal. This synchronized trajectory describes a halo orbit of the Moon.     

Geophysical response of filled sinkholes,soil pipes and associated bedrock fractures in thinly mantled karst,east-central Illinois

Karst aquifers are often protected by a thin mantle of unconsolidated sediment. Soil pipes and sinkholes may breach this natural protective barrier and open pathways for contaminants to quickly reach bedrock aquifers. Geophysical surveys offer a quick and noninvasive way to identify these features; such surveys may also be sequenced to reveal increasing detail in critical areas. At a study site in east-central Illinois, electromagnetic (EM) surveys mapped high conductivity anomalies over filled sinkholes and soil pipes that penetrated the unconsolidated cover. Two-dimensional inverted resistivity sections, made over these anomalies, depict filled sinkholes and soil pipes as conductive zones above deeply weathered bedrock fractures. Borings verified the geophysical models and suggest high conductivities associated with the filled sinkholes are the result of enhanced moisture near active soil pipes. EM surveys also identified conductive zones in the overburden above a probable bedrock fracture linking sinkhole areas 0.5 km apart. Resistivity and EM methods, used in a phased and sequential manner, thus proved useful in mapping filled sinkholes and in delineating the vertical and lateral connections between soil pipes and hydraulically active bedrock fractures.     

Modeling Biogeochemistry,the Key for Understanding Environmental Chemistry of a Semi－Arid Soil in Egypt

1IntroductionThecomponentsoftheenvironmentaredamagedbyagriculturalpractices.Soilslosstheirfer tilityandwaterdeterioratesduetopollution .Chemicalweatheringofmineralandsoiloccursattheinterfacesbetweentheliquidandsolidphases;consequentlythesurfaceareaandcompositionofthemineralsplayanimportantroleinthisprocess.GarrelsandMackenzie ( 1 96 7)suggestedthatincon gruentweatheringreactionswouldproducedissolvedspeciesandnewsolidsthataremorestableintheweatheringenvironmentthantheoriginalbedrockminerals.Ro…     

Differential rotation of the sun determined tracing sunspots and oscillations of sunspot tilt angle

The time and spatial characteristics of 324 large sunspots (S50 millionths of the solar hemisphere) selected from the Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory photoheliogram collection (1950–1990) have been studied. The variations of sunspot angular rotation velocity residuals and oscillations of sunspot tilt angle were analyzed. It has been shown that the differential rotation rate of selected sunspots correlates on average with the solar cycle. The deceleration of differential rotation of large sunspots begins on the ascending arm of the activity curve and ends on the descending arm reaching minimum near the epochs of solar activity maxima. This behavior disappears during the 21st cycle. The amplitudes and periods of sunspot tilt-angle oscillations correlate well with the solar activity cycle. Near the epochs of activity maximum there appear sunspots with large amplitudes and periods showing a significant scatter while the scatter near the minimum is rather low. We also found evidence of phase difference between the sunspot angular rotation velocity and the amplitudes and periods of tilt-angle oscillations.