A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Strontium in coral aragonite: 2. Sr coordination and the long-term stability of coral environmental records

We have used X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and Sr K-edge Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) to determine the structural state of Sr in a suite of coral aragonite samples. Our samples encompassed a selection of coral species (Porites lobata, Porites lutea, Pocillopora eydouxi, Montastrea annularis, Pavona gigantea and Pavona clavus) including some commonly used for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Aragonite was the only carbonate observed by XRD. We refined the isolated EXAFS against structural models for Sr in aragonite and two-phase strontianite/aragonite mixes. Our data are indistinguishable from Sr ideally substituted in aragonite and strontianite was present below detection levels (estimated at <5% of Sr present). Comparisons of recent and ancient coral aragonite show no sign of exsolution, either by spinodal decomposition or by the direct nucleation of strontianite domains. Published diffusion rates of Sr in ionic solids support the view that exsolution would occur prohibitively slowly. Coral aragonites are metastable materials with slow diffusion kinetics that have the potential to encode environments over timescales of millions of years.     

Fingerprinting the Origin of Fluvial Suspended Sediment in Larger River Basins: Combining Assessment of Spatial Provenance and Source Type

Investigation of the potential for using sediment fingerprinting to integrate both spatial provenance and source type information for larger drainage basins appears to be desirable. This contribution presents the results of adopting a composite fingerprinting procedure incorporating statistically verified multicomponent signatures and a multivariate mixing model to provide a preliminary integration of spatial provenance and source type information for the upper and middle reaches of the drainage basins of the Rivers Exe (601 km²) and Severn (4325 km²), UK. A nested approach is employed, whereby spatial provenance is addressed in terms of the distinct sub-basin zones constituting each study area as an entirety, and source type is then characterised within each of these distinct spatial zones in terms of surface (woodland, pasture, cultivated) and subsurface (channel bank) materials. The results demonstrate that the fingerprinting approach possesses considerable potential for integrating spatial provenance and source type information, and hence for improving the resolution of existing sediment source information for larger drainage basins.     

A calderas field at the Marifil Formation, new volcanogenic interpretation, Norpatagonian Massif, Argentina

Major volcanogenic structures within the Marifil Formation allowed to determine the location of a claderas field that spreads along 400 kilometers. This field has at least three large calderas with diameters near to 100 kilometers, recognizable by regional distribution of associated dikes and rhyolite lava flows present at the caldera border that separates a monotonous ignimbritic plateau from a depressed (150 meters) inner volcanic collapsed caldera. The Marifil ignimbritic plateau cover more than 50,000 square kilometers with thicknesses that reach 800 meters. Associated with these plateau ignimbrites there is an important fluorite mineralization.     

Automated AF-demagnetization on the 2G-Enterprises through-bore,cryogenic magnetometer

Since the early sixties, alternating field demagnetization (AFD) has been a standard laboratory technique for demagnetizing rocks to expose the multicomponent structure of their natural remanent magnetization (NRM). In the majority of AFD implementations, however, the procedure remains as labour-intensive as ever. The implementation that we have developed at the Australian Geological Survey Organisation, automates the procedure for AFD based on the static method, and results in significant productivity and efficiency gains without compromising data quality. A properly formulated procedure for static AFD may be the only method of retrieving higher-coercivity components of natural remanence in samples prone to developing gyroremanence at higher alternating fields (AFs). Our AFD environment comprises: a 2G-Enterprises through-bore, cryogenic magnetometer; 2G AF-coils and control equipment; and personal computer software, developed by us, to control all procedural aspects for a complete AFD of a sample including, importantly, a counteracting procedure to neutralize the effects of gyroremanence build-up at higher AFs. With our system, AFD of 8 samples/day, each of 20+ steps, requires only 20 min of user attention compared with a full day for conventional systems.     

Trough structures in the Western syenite of Kûngnât, S Greenland: mineralogy and mechanism of formation

In the Western layered syenite stock of the Kûngnât complex, close to the intrusion wall, there are two groups of regularly spaced, horizontally aligned, stacks of infilled troughs. These features resemble, to some extent, the trough layering within the UZa trough zone of the gabbroic Skaergaard¹ intrusion. Such features have never before been described in syenitic rocks. The lower group comprises six stacks of infilled troughs; the upper group comprises seven. The two groups are vertically separated by about 10 m of sparsely layered syenite. The infilled troughs in the upper group are stacked vertically; those in the lower group gradually shift laterally and appear to converge over an antiformal structure. It is not possible to measure the plunge of the troughs due to outcrop geometry. Troughs are up to about 80 cm deep. The material filling the troughs is more melanocratic than the syenite that surrounds them. Individual troughs exhibit normal grading. The syenite within the troughs contains large amphibole and biotite oikocrysts. Faintly layered syenite occurs laterally between stacks. Minerals in the host syenite are more ferroan than those in the troughs, this is thought to represent re-equilibration with residual melt. Feldspar textures, irregular pyroxene and apatite zoning, and the presence of irregular shaped amphibole patches within pyroxene grains all imply alteration by a pervasive deuteric fluid in both troughs and host syenite. We suggest the following hypothesis for the formation of the troughs. A mafic crystal sheath which grows on the walls of the magma chamber becomes detached and flows downwards. The descending slurry forms a series of regularly spaced streams which erode trough shaped channels into the crystal pile at the base of the chamber. Uneroded crystal material separates the channels. Crystals are deposited from these streams. Successive streams flow over each other to generate stacks of troughs.     

Metropolitan growth and labor markets in Mexico

The objective of this paper is to examine the main changes in the metropolitan labor markets associated with economic restructuring in Mexico during the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s. The analysis refers particularly to the four largest metropoles of the country, Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey and Puebla, looking for common characteristics in their emergent employment structures now strongly differentiated in terms of rewards, stability in employment relations and conditions of access to jobs. The analysis reveals that largest metropolitan areas have been the most profoundly affected by the economic restructuring resulting from globalization, through a rapid de-industrialization and the expansion of the tertiary sector. Metropolitan labor markets in Mexico, at the time that show signs of social polarization in the formal sector, put in evidence a general process of precarization – less labor stability, replacement of permanent by part-time jobs, and increasing subcontracting –, segmentation of the labor force, and an increasing informal conditions of economic activities with small businesses and unskilled, temporarly and poorly paid jobs. The labor force segmentation and its more precarious and casual conditions are mostly explained by the impact of recent neoliberal policies, and recurrent economic crisis during the 1980s and 1990s which highly contributes to social inequality.     

An attenuation model for distant earthquakes

Large magnitude earthquakes generated at source–site distances exceeding 100km are typified by low‐frequency (long‐period) seismic waves. Such induced ground shaking can be disproportionately destructive due to its high displacement, and possibly high velocity, shaking characteristics. Distant earthquakes represent a potentially significant safety hazard in certain low and moderate seismic regions where seismic activity is governed by major distant sources as opposed to nearby (regional) background sources. Examples are parts of the Indian sub‐continent, Eastern China and Indo‐China. The majority of ground motion attenuation relationships currently available for applications in active seismic regions may not be suitable for handling long‐distance attenuation, since the significance of distant earthquakes is mainly confined to certain low to moderate seismicity regions. Thus, the effects of distant earthquakes are often not accurately represented by conventional empirical models which were typically developed from curve‐fitting earthquake strong‐motion data from active seismic regions. Numerous well‐known existing attenuation relationships are evaluated in this paper, to highlight their limitations in long‐distance applications. In contrast, basic seismological parameters such as the Quality factor (Q‐factor) could provide a far more accurate representation for the distant attenuation behaviour of a region, but such information is seldom used by engineers in any direct manner. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of relationships that provide a convenient link between the seismological Q‐factor (amongst other factors) and response spectrum attenuation. The use of Q as an input parameter to the proposed model enables valuable local seismological information to be incorporated directly into response spectrum predictions. The application of this new modelling approach is demonstrated by examples based on the Chi‐Chi earthquake (Taiwan and South China), Gujarat earthquake (Northwest India), Nisqually earthquake (region surrounding Seattle) and Sumatran‐fault earthquake (recorded in Singapore). Field recordings have been obtained from these events for comparison with the proposed model. The accuracy of the stochastic simulations and the regression analysis have been confirmed by comparisons between the model calculations and the actual field observations. It is emphasized that obtaining representative estimates for Q for input into the model is equally important.Thus, this paper forms part of the long‐term objective of the authors to develop more effective communications across the engineering and seismological disciplines. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.