Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

Trends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series.     

GPS-derived orbits for the GOCE satellite

The first ESA (European Space Agency) Earth explorer core mission GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) was launched on 17 March 2009 into a sun-synchronous dusk–dawn orbit with an exceptionally low initial altitude of about 280 km. The onboard 12-channel dual-frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receiver delivers 1 Hz data, which provides the basis for precise orbit determination (POD) for such a very low orbiting satellite. As part of the European GOCE Gravity Consortium the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern and the Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems are responsible for the orbit determination of the GOCE satellite within the GOCE High-level Processing Facility. Both quick-look (rapid) and very precise orbit solutions are produced with typical latencies of 1 day and 2 weeks, respectively. This article summarizes the special characteristics of the GOCE GPS data, presents POD results for about 2 months of data, and shows that both latency and accuracy requirements are met. Satellite Laser Ranging validation shows that an accuracy of 4 and 7 cm is achieved for the reduced-dynamic and kinematic Rapid Science Orbit solutions, respectively. The validation of the reduced-dynamic and kinematic Precise Science Orbit solutions is at a level of about 2 cm.     

A possible long-lived asteroid population at the equilateral Lagrangian points of Saturn

The Lagrangian equilateral points of a planetary orbit are points of equilibrium that trail at 60°, ahead (L4) or behind (L5), the trajectory of a planet. Jupiter is the only major planet in our Solar system harbouring a known population of asteroids at those locations. Here we report the existence of orbits close to the Lagrangian points of Saturn, stable at time-scales comparable to the age of the Solar system. By scaling with respect to the Trojan population we have estimated the number of objects that would populate the regions, which gives a significant figure. Moreover, mutual physical collisions over the age of the Solar system would be very rare, so the evaporation rate of this swarm arising from mutual interactions would be very low. A population of asteroids not self-collisionally evolved after their formation stage would be the first to be observed in our planetary system. Our present estimations are based on the assumption that the capture efficiency at Saturn's equilateral points is comparable with the one corresponding to Jupiter, thus our figures may be taken as upper limits. In any case, observational constraints on their number would provide fundamental clues to our understanding of the history of the outer Solar system. If they existed, the surface properties and size distribution of those objects would represent unusually valuable fossil records of our early planetary system.     

Performance of grass and eucalyptus riparian buffers in a pasture catchment,Western Australia,part 1: riparian hydrology

Rainfall takes many flowpaths to reach a stream, and the success of riparian buffers in water quality management is significantly influenced by riparian hydrology. This paper presents results from hydrometric monitoring of riparian buffer hydrology in a pasture catchment. Runoff processes and riparian flowpaths were investigated on two planar hillslopes with regenerating grass and E. globulus buffers. Surface runoff and subsurface flows (A‐ and B‐horizons) were measured for 3 years using surface runoff collectors, subsurface troughs and piezometers. Water volumes moving through the riparian buffers via the measured flowpaths were ranked B‐horizon ? surface runoff ≈ A‐horizon. Runoff volumes through the B‐horizon troughs were an order of magnitude greater than those recorded for the most productive surface runoff plots or the A‐horizon troughs. Subsurface runoff and saturation‐excess overland flow (SOF) were limited to the winter months, whereas infiltration‐excess overland flow (IEOF) can occur all year round during intense storms. Surface runoff was recorded on 33 occasions, mostly during winter (late May–early October), and total annual surface runoff volumes collected by the 20 unconfined (2 m wide) runoff plots varied between > 80 and < 20 m³. Subsurface flow only occurred in winter, and the 6 m wide B‐horizon subsurface troughs flowed above 1 l s^?1 continuously, whereas the A‐horizon troughs flowed infrequently (<6 days per year). In summer, surface runoff occurred as IEOF during intense storms in the E. globulus buffer, but not in the grass buffer. Observations suggest that surface crusting reduced the soil's infiltration capacity in the E. globulus buffer. During winter, SOF and seepage were observed in both buffers, but subsurface flow through the B‐horizon was the dominant flowpath. Key hydrologic differences between the grass and tree buffers are the generation of IEOF in the E. globulus buffer during intense summer storms, and the smaller subsurface runoff volumes and fewer flow days in the E. globulus buffer. Low surface runoff volumes are likely to limit the potential of these buffers to filter pollutants from surface runoff. High subsurface flow volumes and saturated conductivities are also likely to limit the residence time of water in the subsurface domain. Based on their hydrologic performance, the key roles of riparian buffers in this landscape are likely to be displacing sediment and nutrient‐generating activities away from streams and stabilizing channel morphology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zoned chondrules in Semarkona: Evidence for high‐ and low‐temperature processing

Abstract— At least 15% of the low‐FeO chondrules in Semarkona (LL3.0) have mesostases that are concentrically zoned in Na, with enrichments near the outer margins. We have studied zoned chondrules using electron microprobe methods (x‐ray mapping plus quantitative analysis), ion microprobe analysis for trace elements and hydrogen isotopes, cathodoluminescence imaging, and transmission electron microscopy in order to determine what these objects can tell us about the environment in which chondrules formed and evolved. Mesostases in these chondrules are strongly zoned in all moderately volatile elements and H (interpreted as water). Calcium is depleted in areas of volatile enrichment. Titanium and Cr generally decrease toward the chondrule surfaces, whereas Al and Si may either increase or decrease, generally in opposite directions to one another; Mn follows Na in some chondrules but not in others; Fe and Mg are unzoned. D/H ratios increase in the water‐rich areas of zoned chondrules. Mesostasis shows cathodoluminescence zoning in most zoned chondrules, with the brightest yellow color near the outside. Mesostasis in zoned chondrules appears to be glassy, with no evidence for devitrification. Systematic variations in zoning patterns among pyroxene‐ and olivine‐rich chondrules may indicate that fractionation of low‐ and high‐Ca pyroxene played some role in Ti, Cr, Mn, Si, Al, and some Ca zoning. But direct condensation of elements into hot chondrules, secondary melting of late condensates into the outer portions of chondrules, and subsolidus diffusion of elements into warm chondrules cannot account for the sub‐parallel zoning profiles of many elements, the presence of H₂O, or elemental abundance patterns. Zoning of moderately volatile elements and Ca may have been produced by hydration of chondrule glass without devitrification during aqueous alteration on the parent asteroid. This could have induced structural changes in the glass allowing rapid diffusion and exchange of elements between altered glass and surrounding matrix and rim material. Calcium was mainly lost during this process, and other nonvolatile elements may have been mobile as well. Some unzoned, low‐FeO chondrules appear to have fully altered mesostasis.     

Performance of grass and eucalyptus riparian buffers in a pasture catchment,Western Australia,part 2: water quality

Declining water quality on the south coast of Western Australia has been linked to current agricultural practices. Riparian buffers were identified as a tool available to farmers and catchment managers to achieve water quality improvements. This study compares 10 m wide regenerating grass and Eucalyptus globulus buffer performance. Surface and subsurface water quality were monitored over a 3‐year period. Nutrient and sediment transport were both dominated by subsurface flow, in particular through the B‐horizon, and this may seriously limit the surface‐runoff‐related functions of the riparian buffers. Riparian buffer trapping efficiencies were variable on an event basis and annual basis. The grass buffer reduced total phosphorus, filterable reactive phosphorus, total nitrogen and suspended sediment loads from surface runoff by 50 to 60%. The E. globulus buffer was not as effective, and total load reductions in surface runoff ranged between 10 and 40%. A key difference between the grass and E. globulus buffers was the seasonality of sediment and nutrient transport. Surface runoff, and therefore sediment and nutrient transport, occurred throughout the year in the E. globulus buffer, but only during the winter in the grass buffer. As a consequence of high summer nutrient and sediment concentrations, half the annual loads moving via surface runoff pathways through the E. globulus buffer were transported during intense summer storms. This study demonstrates that grass and E. globulus riparian buffers receiving runoff from pasture under natural rainfall can reduce sediment and nutrient loads from surface runoff. However, in this environment the B‐horizon subsurface flow is the dominant flowpath for nutrient transport through the riparian buffers, and this subsurface flow pathway carries contaminant loads at least three times greater than surface runoff. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring aberrant bivalve shell ultrastructure and geochemistry as proxies for past sea water acidification

Throughout much of Earth's history, marine carbonates have represented one of the most important geological archives of environmental change. Several pivotal events during the Phanerozoic, such as mass extinctions or hyperthermal events have recently been associated with ocean acidification. Nevertheless, well‐defined geological proxies for past ocean acidification events are, at best, scarce. Here, experimental work explores the response of bivalve shell ultrastructure and isotope geochemistry (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and δ²⁶Mg) to stressful environments, in particular to sea water acidification. In this study, the common blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, was cultured (from early juvenile stages to one year of age) at four pH regimes (pH_NBS 7·2 to pH 8·0). Shell growth rate and ultrastructure of mainly the calcitic portion of the shells were compared between experimental treatments. Specimens exposed to low‐pH environments show patches of disordered calcitic fibre orientation in otherwise well‐structured shells. Furthermore, the electron backscattered diffraction analyses reveal that, under acidified conditions, the c‐axis of the calcite prisms exhibits a bimodal or multi‐modal distribution pattern. Similar shell disorder patterns have been reported from mytilids kept under naturally acidified sea water conditions. In contrast, this study found no evidence that different pH regimes affect shell carbon, oxygen or magnesium isotope ratios. Based on these observations, it is proposed that: (i) stressful environments, in this case low sea water pH, predictably affect bivalve biomineralization patterns; and (ii) these findings bear potential as a novel (petrographic) proxy for ancient sea water acidification. An assessment of the applicability of these data to well‐preserved fossil shell material from selected time intervals requires additional work.