Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.     

The partitioning behavior of silver in a vapor-brine-rhyolite melt assemblage

The partitioning of silver in a sulfur-free rhyolite melt-vapor-brine assemblage has been quantified at 800 °C, pressures of 100 and 140 MPa and f_O2≈NNO (nickel-nickel oxide). Silver solubility (±2σ) in rhyolite increases 5-fold from 105 ± 21 to 675 ± 98 μg/g as pressure increases from 100 to 140 MPa. Nernst-type partition coefficients describing the mass transfer of silver at 100 MPa between vapor and melt, brine and melt and vapor and brine are 32 ± 30, 1151 ± 238 and 0.026 ± 0.004, respectively. At 140 MPa, values for for vapor and melt, brine and melt, and vapor and brine are 32 ± 10, 413 ± 172 and 0.06 ± 0.03, respectively. Apparent equilibrium constant values (±2σ) describing the exchange of silver and sodium between vapor and melt, , at 100 and 140 MPa are 105 ± 68 and 14 ± 6. The average values (±2σ) for silver and sodium exchange between brine and melt, , at 100 and 140 MPa are 313 ± 288 and 65 ± 12. These data indicate that the mass transfer of silver from rhyolite melt to an exsolved volatile phase(s) is enhanced at 100 MPa relative to 140 MPa, suggesting that decompression increases the silver ore-generative potential of an evolving silicate magma. Model calculations using the new data suggest that the evolution of low-density, aqueous fluid (i.e., vapor) may be responsible for the the silver tonnage of many porphyry-type and perhaps epithermal-type ore deposits. For example, Halter et al. (Halter W. E., Pettke T. and Heinrich C. A. (2002) The origin of Cu/Au ratios in porphyry-type ore deposits. Science296, 1842-1844) used detailed silicate and sulfide melt inclusion and vapor and brine fluid inclusions analyses to estimate a melt volume on the order of 15 km³ to satisfy the copper budget at the Bajo de la Alumbrera copper-, gold-, silver-ore deposit. Using their melt volume estimate with the data presented here, model calculations for a 15-km³ felsic melt, saturated with pyrrhotite and magnetite, suggest that a low-salinity magmatic vapor may scavenge on the order of 7 × 10¹² g of silver from the melt. This quantity of silver exceeds the discovered 2 × 10⁹ g of Ag at Alumbrera. Calculated tonnages for numerous other deposits yield similar results. The excess silver in the vapor, remaining after porphyry formation, is then available to precipitate at lower PTconditions in the stratigraphically higher epithermal environment. These data suggest that silver, and perhaps other ore metals, in the porphyry-epithermal continuum may be derived solely from the time-integrated flux of dominantly low-salinity vapor exsolved from a series of sequential magma batches.     

湘西沃溪金矿床矿石矿物学特征及深部找矿意义

借助电子探针分析技术,对沃溪矿床V3矿脉深部(29中段)矿体进行了矿石矿物学观察和分析,发现深部矿体自然金中Ag、Sb、Pb、Bi等杂质元素的含量明显比浅部(24中段以上)自然金相应组分的含量偏高,深部自然金的成色(≤995)比浅部自然金的成色(≥999)明显偏低;深部矿体矿石中发育辉锑矿、黄铁矿、闪锌矿、黄铜矿、黝铜矿、硫锑矿、车轮矿等矿物,形成明显比浅部矿体组成复杂的矿物组合,显示矿床深部发育Au-Pb-zn-Bi±Cu的矿化作用.上述表明:沃溪矿床深部可能发育具Au-Pb-zn-Bi±Cu等元素组合的新矿体.它不同于浅部的W-Sb-Au元素组合的特征.因而深部找矿工作应多注重Au-Pb-zn-Bi+Cu多元素矿床.     

Laboratory modeling of topographic Rossby normal modes

The physical modeling of topographic Rossby normal modes carried out at the “Coriolis” Rotating Platform (Grenoble), is presented. The basic feature of the bottom topography is a linear slope of 4.3 m×2 m delimited by two lateral walls. Since the studied motions are essentially barotropic, homogeneous water was used. Unsheared currents were generated by a simple movement of a wavemaker located in front of the topographic barrier. The conservation of potential vorticity for the currents flowing onto the channel slope produced Rossby waves: reflections at the lateral boundaries then led to the formation of propagating barotropic Rossby normal modes, whose frequencies and spatial structures were selected by the physical system. The currents were measured through the correlation imaging velocimetry (CIV) method, which allowed an extremely detailed synoptic map of the horizontal velocities in an area (13 m²) including the slope to be obtained every 30 s.A variety of experiments were performed in order to provide a complete process study in which the effect of different channel lengths and rotation periods could be tested. Two different lengths of the linear slope, 4.3 and 3.3 m, and rotation periods ranging from 30 to 50 s were considered. The qualitative analysis of the 2D current patterns, and the good agreement found between the measured eigenperiods and the periods obtained by means of a simple analytical model, show that in all cases the first Rossby normal mode was generated. Moreover, numerical simulations based on the shallow-water equations, for a geometry and paddle movements that match closely the experimental setup, allow to calibrate the analytical model and provide useful information on a discrepancy found between experimental and analytical eigenperiods due to an oscillation of the normal mode trajectory.     

College students’ consumption, contribution, and risk awareness related to online mapping services and social media outlets: does geography and GIS knowledge matter?

Location-enabled online tools and/or services (i.e. Google Earth/Maps, Flickr, Facebook check-ins, etc.) have been widely used for distributing and processing geospatial-related data. They attract diverse users to consume and contribute geographic information (GI) in many different forms. This study examines college students’ consumption and contribution of GI through these tools and/or services as well as their perception of risk and privacy. It evaluates the impact of Geographic information systems (GIS) and geography knowledge on the related behavior and perception. Through conducting a survey, it was found that college students’ consumption frequency of GI through the investigated tools and services is positively related to their knowledge in GIS and geography, but their GI contribution is not related. GIS knowledge was found to help raise students’ awareness level of risk. However, this relationship does not translate into students’ concern about potential privacy disclosure or their willingness to share personal location information through using location-enabled online tools and/or services. Discussions on the gap between students’ consumption and contribution of GI through the tools and/or services are shared in the paper as well as possible explanations on the disconnection between their risk awareness, privacy concern, and willingness to share personal information. Future research directions are discussed.     

A Review of “Agrarian Angst and Rural Resistance in Contemporary Southeast Asia”

This article addresses the issue of linking temporal and spatial information into a GIS database structure to investigate the land-use changes in a rural-urban region over a thirty-five-year period. More specifically, it describes the application of a programming package developed to build temporal topology in an historical land-use GIS database to efficiently perform spatiotemporal queries. The program was created within the MapInfo environment using MapBasic language. Different types of information, such as the rate of change, the relationship between the change of land use and zoning regulations, and land-use succession were extracted from the database. A user-friendly interface was also developed to easily address spatiotemporal queries to the database. This approach represents a flexible and performing tool for scientists and planners who need to efficiently capture essential spatiotemporal information required for geographical inquiry and decision-making.     

Determining the susceptibility of Eucalyptus nitens forests to Coryphodema tristis (cossid moth) occurrence in Mpumalanga,South Africa

The cossid moth, Coryphodema tristis was first noted on Eucalyptus nitens trees in Mpumalanga province, South Africa during July 2004. Currently, the moth poses a major threat to commercial forestry in the country. In this study, selected climatic and topographical variables were used to model the susceptibility of E. nitens forests to cossid moth occurrence, thereby providing insight into the variables that may influence the occurrence and spread of the moth. A zigzag sampling technique was used to survey 5316 ha of E. nitens forests for the presence or absence of the moth. The random forest classification algorithm was then used to model the relationship between the climatic and topographical variables and the occurrence of the cossid moth. Results indicate that four variables that included elevation, maximum temperature for September, maximum temperature for April and the median rainfall for April best explained the presence or absence of C. tristis with an overall accuracy of 82% and a kappa value of 0.63. Partial dependence plots indicated that the areas that have a maximum temperature greater than 23°C in September and 22°C in April are likely to be infested by the cossid moth. The results from this study provide a robust and accurate spatial framework to assist forest managers in focussing their existing monitoring and control efforts to specific E. nitens forested areas that are highly susceptible to C. tristis infestations.     

Decoherence time scales for “meteoroid streams”

Abstract— We explore the orbital dynamics of Earth‐crossing objects with the intent to understand the time scales under which an “orbital stream” of material could produce time‐correlated meteorite falls. These “meteoroid streams” have been suggested to be associated with three well‐known meteorite‐dropping fireballs (Innisfree, Peekskill, and P?íbram). We have performed two different analyses of the statistical significance of the “orbital similarity,” in particular calculating how often orbits of the same level of similarity would come from a random sample. Secondly, we have performed extremely detailed numerical integrations related to these three cases, and we find that if they were streams of objects in similar orbits, then they would become “decoherent” (in the sense that the day‐of‐fall of meteorites of these streams become almost random) on time scales of 10⁴–10⁵ yr. Thus, an extremely recent breakup would be required, much more recent that the cosmic ray exposure ages of the recovered falls in each case. We conclude that orbital destruction is too efficient to allow the existence of long‐lived meteoroid streams and that the statistical evidence for such streams is insufficient; random fall patterns show comparable levels of clustering.