Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Effects of rainfall on oil droplet size and the dispersion of spilled oil with application to Douglas Channel,British Columbia,Canada

Raindrops falling on the sea surface produce turbulence. The present study examined the influence of rain-induced turbulence on oil droplet size and dispersion of oil spills in Douglas Channel in British Columbia, Canada using hourly atmospheric data in 2011–2013. We examined three types of oils: a light oil (Cold Lake Diluent - CLD), and two heavy oils (Cold Lake Blend - CLB and Access Western Blend - AWB). We found that the turbulent energy dissipation rate produced by rainfalls is comparable to what is produced by wind-induced wave breaking in our study area. With the use of chemical dispersants, our results indicate that a heavy rainfall (rain rate > 20 mm h^? 1) can produce the maximum droplet size of 300 μm for light oil and 1000 μm for heavy oils, and it can disperse the light oil with fraction of 22–45% and the heavy oils of 8–13%, respectively. Heavy rainfalls could be a factor for the fate of oil spills in Douglas Channel, especially for a spill of light oil and the use of chemical dispersants.     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.     

Bayesian probabilistic damage detection of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column

A Bayesian probabilistic approach for damage detection has been proposed for the continuous monitoring of civil structures (Sohn H, Law KH. Bayesian probabilistic approach for structure damage detection. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 1997; 26 :1259–1281). This paper describes the application of the Bayesian approach to predict the location of plastic hinge deformation using the experimental data obtained from the vibration tests of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column. The column was statically pushed incrementally with lateral displacements until a plastic hinge is fully formed at the bottom portion of the column. Vibration tests were performed at different damage stages. The proposed damage detection method was able to locate the damaged region using a simplified analytical model and the modal parameters estimated from the vibration tests, although (1) only the first bending and first torsional modes were estimated from the experimental test data, (2) the locations where the accelerations were measured did not coincide with the degrees of freedom of the analytical model, and (3) there existed discrepancies between the undamaged test structure and the analytical model. The Bayesian framework was able to systematically update the damage probabilities when new test data became available. Better diagnosis was obtained by employing multiple data sets than just by using each test data set separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of incipient motion data for backward erosion piping models

Backward erosion piping involves the gradual removal of granular material under the action of water flow from the foundation of a dam or levee, whereby shallow pipes are formed that grow in the direction opposite to the flow. This pipe-forming process can ultimately lead to failure of a water-retaining structure and is considered one of the most important failure mechanisms for dikes and levees in the Netherlands and the United States. Modeling of this mechanism requires the assessment of hydraulic conditions in the pipe, which are controlled by the particle equilibrium at the pipe wall. Since the pipe's dimensions are controlled by the inflow to the pipe from the porous medium, the flow through the pipe is thought to be laminar for fine- to medium-grained sands. The literature provides data for incipient motion in laminar flow, which is reviewed here and complemented with data from backward erosion experiments. The experiments illustrate the applicability of the laminar incipient motion data to determine the erosion pipe dimensions and corresponding pipe hydraulics for fine- to medium-grained sands, for the purpose of backward erosion piping modeling.     

Implementation of Solute Transport in the Vadose Zone into the “HYDRUS Package for MODFLOW”

The “HYDRUS package for MODFLOW” is an existing MODFLOW package that allows MODFLOW to simultaneously evaluate transient water flow in both unsaturated and saturated zones. The package is based on incorporating parts of the HYDRUS-1D model (to simulate unsaturated water flow in the vadose zone) into MODFLOW (to simulate saturated groundwater flow). The coupled model is effective in addressing spatially variable saturated-unsaturated hydrological processes at the regional scale. However, one of the major limitations of this coupled model is that it does not have the capability to simulate solute transport along with water flow and therefore, the model cannot be employed for evaluating groundwater contamination. In this work, a modified unsaturated flow and transport package (modified HYDRUS package for MODFLOW and MT3DMS) has been developed and linked to the three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model MODFLOW and the 3D groundwater solute transport model MT3DMS. The new package can simulate, in addition to water flow in the vadose zone, also solute transport involving many biogeochemical processes and reactions, including first-order degradation, volatilization, linear or nonlinear sorption, one-site kinetic sorption, two-site sorption, and two-kinetic sites sorption. Due to complex interactions at the groundwater table, certain modifications of the pressure head (compared to the original coupling) and solute concentration profiles were incorporated into the modified HYDRUS package. The performance of the newly developed model is evaluated using HYDRUS (2D/3D), and the results indicate that the new model is effective in simulating the movement of water and contaminants in the saturated-unsaturated flow domains.     

Organohalogen contaminants and trace metals in North-East Atlantic porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus)

The North-East Atlantic porbeagle (Lamna nasus) population has declined dramatically over the last few decades and is currently classified as ‘Critically Endangered’. As long-lived, apex predators, they may be vulnerable to bioaccumulation of contaminants. In this study organohalogen compounds and trace elements were analysed in 12 specimens caught as incidental bycatch in commercial gillnet fisheries in the Celtic Sea in 2011. Levels of organohalogen contaminants were low or undetectable (summed CB and BDE concentrations 0.04–0.85 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). A notably high Cd concentration (7.2 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight) was observed in one mature male, whereas the range observed in the other samples was much lower (0.04–0.26 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). Hg and Pb concentrations were detected only in single animals, at 0.34 and 0.08 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight, respectively. These contaminant levels were low in comparison to other published studies for shark species.     

Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Geologic and hydrologic settings for development of freshwater lenses in arid lands

Satellite observations were used to test the validity of previously identified favourable conditions for the formation of freshwater lenses, identify additional potential occurrences, and model modern potential recharge in the Raudhatain Watershed (3696) in northern Kuwait. Favourable conditions include infrequent yet intensive precipitation events, drainage depressions to collect the limited runoff, and presence of conditions (e.g. high infiltration capacity) that promote groundwater recharge and preservation (e.g. underlying saline aquifer) of infiltrating groundwater as freshwater lenses floating over saline aquifer water due to differences in density. Specifically, the following field and satellite‐based observations were noted for the Raudhatain Watershed: (1) Over ~30 precipitation events were identified from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data (1998–2009); (2) slope is gentle (2 m/km), and the surface is largely (80%) covered by alluvial deposits with high infiltration capacities (up to 9 m/day); (3) no flows and long‐term ponding were reported at the watershed outlet or detected from Landsat thematic mapper images; (4) infiltration is high based on increases in soil moisture content (from an advanced microwave scanning radiometer) and vegetation index following large precipitation events; and (5) freshwater lenses that overlie highly saline [total dissolved solids (TDS): >35 000] unconfined aquifers underlying the watershed are absent in the southern regions, where infiltrating fresh water mixes with the less saline groundwater (TDS: <10 000). Twenty potential locations (size: 1 to 75 km²) for freshwater lens development were identified in northern Kuwait, and continuous rainfall–runoff models (Soil Water and Assessment Tool) were applied to provide a first‐order estimation of the average annual recharge in the watershed (127 × 10⁶ m³) and freshwater lenses (8.17 × 10⁶ m³). Results demonstrate the settings for enhanced opportunities for groundwater recharge, outline the amounts of and preservation conditions for the groundwater feeding the freshwater lenses, and highlight potential applications and locations of freshwater lenses in similar settings elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula and beyond. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.