The effect of massive binaries on stellar populations and supernova progenitors

We compare our latest single and binary stellar model results from the Cambridge stars code to several sets of observations. We examine four stellar population ratios: the number of blue to red supergiants, the number of Wolf–Rayet stars to O supergiants, the number of red supergiants to Wolf–Rayet stars and the relative number of Wolf–Rayet subtypes, WC to WN stars. These four ratios provide a quantitative measure of nuclear burning lifetimes and the importance of mass loss during various stages of the stars' lifetimes. In addition, we compare our models to the relative rate of Type Ib/c to Type II supernovae to measure the amount of mass lost over the entire lives of all stars. We find reasonable agreement between the observationally inferred values and our predicted values by mixing single and binary star populations. However, there is evidence that extra mass loss is required to improve the agreement further, to reduce the number of red supergiants and increase the number of Wolf–Rayet stars.     

A decline in molluscan carbonate production driven by the loss of vegetated habitats encoded in the Holocene sedimentary record of the Gulf of Trieste

Carbonate sediments in non‐vegetated habitats on the north‐east Adriatic shelf are dominated by shells of molluscs. However, the rate of carbonate molluscan production prior to the 20th century eutrophication and overfishing on this and other shelves remains unknown because: (i) monitoring of ecosystems prior to the 20th century was scarce; and (ii) ecosystem history inferred from cores is masked by condensation and mixing. Here, based on geochronological dating of four bivalve species, carbonate production during the Holocene is assessed in the Gulf of Trieste, where algal and seagrass habitats underwent a major decline during the 20th century. Assemblages of sand‐dwelling Gouldia minima and opportunistic Corbula gibba are time‐averaged to >1000 years and Corbula gibba shells are older by >2000 years than shells of co‐occurring Gouldia minima. This age difference is driven by temporally disjunct production of two species coupled with decimetre‐scale mixing. Stratigraphic unmixing shows that Corbula gibba declined in abundance during the highstand phase and increased again during the 20th century. In contrast, one of the major contributors to carbonate sands – Gouldia minima – increased in abundance during the highstand phase, but declined to almost zero abundance over the past two centuries. Gouldia minima and herbivorous gastropods associated with macroalgae or seagrasses are abundant in the top‐core increments but are rarely alive. Although Gouldia minima is not limited to vegetated habitats, it is abundant in such habitats elsewhere in the Mediterranean Sea. This live–dead mismatch reflects the difference between highstand baseline communities (with soft‐bottom vegetated zones and hard‐bottom Arca beds) and present‐day oligophotic communities with organic‐loving species. Therefore, the decline in light penetration and the loss of vegetated habitats with high molluscan production traces back to the 19th century. More than 50% of the shells on the sea floor in the Gulf of Trieste reflect inactive production that was sourced by heterozoan carbonate factory in algal or seagrass habitats.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

Meltwater discharge during the Holocene from the Wilkes subglacial basin revealed by beryllium isotope analysis of marine sediments

Understanding Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics related to global climate change is of scientific and societal interest as the future behaviour of the ice sheet under the currently changing climate is unknown. We present beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) analysis of a high‐resolution marine sediment core from the Adélie Basin near the eastern Wilkes Land margin, which is susceptible to marine ice sheet instability due to the low‐lying nature and down‐sloping trough of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Combined with a newly constructed age model using compound specific radiocarbon dates, the data reveal three events associated with high meteoric ¹⁰Be at ca. ~10 ka, ca. ~6.5 ka and from ca. ~4 ka. We interpret these high meteoric ¹⁰Be events to be derived from the deposition of ¹⁰Be released from the ice sheet during meltwater discharge. In particular, the shift to higher meteoric ¹⁰Be concentration at~4 ka may correspond to changes in climate patterns at this time. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive and Affective Predictors of Illinois Residents’ Perceived Risks from Gray Wolves

Abstract

Increasing wolf populations are a concern for wildlife managers in the Midwestern U.S. Understanding the psychological mechanisms that contribute to public perceptions of risk will enable development of strategies that seek to mitigate these risks, and suggest where outreach efforts may facilitate acceptance of wolves. We examined the psychological factors that influence Illinois residents’ perceived risks from wolves. We hypothesized that individuals’ perceived risks from wolves were a function of their attitudes toward wolves, negative affect toward wolves, and basic beliefs about wildlife. Data were obtained from a survey of the Illinois public (n?=?784). Negative affect and attitudes toward wolves were direct predictors of perceived risks. Basic beliefs predicted attitudes and negative affect toward wolves. Negative affect predicted attitudes. Basic beliefs had direct and indirect effects on perceived risks.     

Growing season evapotranspiration in boreal fens in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region: Variability and environmental controls

Current efforts to assess changes to the wetland hydrology caused by growing anthropogenic pressures in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) require well-founded spatial and temporal estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET), which is the dominant component of the water budget in this region. This study assessed growing season (May–September) and peak growing season (July) ET variability at a treed moderate-rich fen and treed poor fen (in 2013–2018), open poor fen (in 2011–2014), and saline fen (in 2015–2018) using eddy covariance technique and a set of complementary environmental data. Seasonal fluctuations in ET were positively related to net radiation, air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and followed trends typical for the Boreal Plains (BP) and AOSR with highest rates in June–July. However, no strong effect of water table position on ET was found. Strong surface control on ET is evident from lower ET values than potential evapotranspiration (PET); the lowest ET/PET was observed at saline fen, followed by open fen, moderately treed fen, and heavily treed fen, suggesting a strong influence of vegetation on water loss. In most years PET exceeded precipitation (P), and positive relations between P/PET and ET were observed with the highest July ET rates occurring under P/PET ~1. However, during months with P/PET > 1, increased P/PET was associated with decreased July ET. With respect to 30-year mean values of air temperature and P in the area, both dry and wet, cool and warm growing seasons (GS) were observed. No clear trends between ET values and GS wetness/coldness were found, but all wet GS were characterized by peak growing seasons with high daily ET variability.     

A new approach for evaluating climate change communication

Many scholars study when climate change communication increases citizen engagement. Yet, past work has largely used public opinion-based measures of engagement to evaluate alternative frames. In this paper, we argue for a new approach to evaluation, which is premised on research on the policy-making process showing that space on the political agenda and, ultimately, policy change are more likely to arise in response to changes in both public opinion and collective political action. Thus, we argue that alternative frames should be evaluated based on their consequences for both. This is especially critical given that frames can have divergent effects on attitudes and behavior. Using a combination of field and survey experiments, we apply our approach to evaluate two frames related to climate change risks. We find that they heighten people’s concern about climate change yet decrease their rate of political action to express that concern. Our results suggest caution with regard to these frames in particular and that, more generally, frames that might seem advantageous when examining public opinion may not be when political behavior is analyzed.

     

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.     

Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316