Geologic and hydrologic settings for development of freshwater lenses in arid lands

Satellite observations were used to test the validity of previously identified favourable conditions for the formation of freshwater lenses, identify additional potential occurrences, and model modern potential recharge in the Raudhatain Watershed (3696) in northern Kuwait. Favourable conditions include infrequent yet intensive precipitation events, drainage depressions to collect the limited runoff, and presence of conditions (e.g. high infiltration capacity) that promote groundwater recharge and preservation (e.g. underlying saline aquifer) of infiltrating groundwater as freshwater lenses floating over saline aquifer water due to differences in density. Specifically, the following field and satellite‐based observations were noted for the Raudhatain Watershed: (1) Over ~30 precipitation events were identified from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data (1998–2009); (2) slope is gentle (2 m/km), and the surface is largely (80%) covered by alluvial deposits with high infiltration capacities (up to 9 m/day); (3) no flows and long‐term ponding were reported at the watershed outlet or detected from Landsat thematic mapper images; (4) infiltration is high based on increases in soil moisture content (from an advanced microwave scanning radiometer) and vegetation index following large precipitation events; and (5) freshwater lenses that overlie highly saline [total dissolved solids (TDS): >35 000] unconfined aquifers underlying the watershed are absent in the southern regions, where infiltrating fresh water mixes with the less saline groundwater (TDS: <10 000). Twenty potential locations (size: 1 to 75 km²) for freshwater lens development were identified in northern Kuwait, and continuous rainfall–runoff models (Soil Water and Assessment Tool) were applied to provide a first‐order estimation of the average annual recharge in the watershed (127 × 10⁶ m³) and freshwater lenses (8.17 × 10⁶ m³). Results demonstrate the settings for enhanced opportunities for groundwater recharge, outline the amounts of and preservation conditions for the groundwater feeding the freshwater lenses, and highlight potential applications and locations of freshwater lenses in similar settings elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula and beyond. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementation of Solute Transport in the Vadose Zone into the “HYDRUS Package for MODFLOW”

The “HYDRUS package for MODFLOW” is an existing MODFLOW package that allows MODFLOW to simultaneously evaluate transient water flow in both unsaturated and saturated zones. The package is based on incorporating parts of the HYDRUS-1D model (to simulate unsaturated water flow in the vadose zone) into MODFLOW (to simulate saturated groundwater flow). The coupled model is effective in addressing spatially variable saturated-unsaturated hydrological processes at the regional scale. However, one of the major limitations of this coupled model is that it does not have the capability to simulate solute transport along with water flow and therefore, the model cannot be employed for evaluating groundwater contamination. In this work, a modified unsaturated flow and transport package (modified HYDRUS package for MODFLOW and MT3DMS) has been developed and linked to the three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model MODFLOW and the 3D groundwater solute transport model MT3DMS. The new package can simulate, in addition to water flow in the vadose zone, also solute transport involving many biogeochemical processes and reactions, including first-order degradation, volatilization, linear or nonlinear sorption, one-site kinetic sorption, two-site sorption, and two-kinetic sites sorption. Due to complex interactions at the groundwater table, certain modifications of the pressure head (compared to the original coupling) and solute concentration profiles were incorporated into the modified HYDRUS package. The performance of the newly developed model is evaluated using HYDRUS (2D/3D), and the results indicate that the new model is effective in simulating the movement of water and contaminants in the saturated-unsaturated flow domains.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional modelling of rainfall-induced runoff using hydrological model by incorporating plant cover effects: case study in Kelantan,Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to develop a spatial temporal runoff modelling of local rainfall patterns effect on the plant cover hilly lands in Kelantan River Basin. Rainfall interception loss based on leaf area index, loss/infiltration on the ground surface, and runoff calculation were considered as the main plant cover effects on the runoff volume. In this regard, a hydrological and geotechnical grid-based regional model (integrated model) was performed using Microsoft Excel^® and GIS framework system for deterministic modelling of rainfall-induced runoff by incorporating plant cover effects. The infiltration process of the current model was integrated with the precipitation distribution method and rainfall interception approach while the runoff analysis of integrated model was employed based on loss/infiltration water on the ground surface with consideration of water interception loss by canopy and the remaining surface water. In the following, the spatial temporal analysis of rainfall-induced runoff was performed using 10 days of hourly rainfall events at the end of December 2014 in Kelantan River Basin. The corresponding changes in pressure head and consequent rate of infiltration were calculated during rainfall events. Subsequently, flood volume is computed using local rainfall patterns, along with water interception loss and the remaining surface water in the study area. The results showed the land cover changes caused significant differences in hydrological response to surface water. The increase in runoff volume of the Kelantan River Basin is as a function of deforestation and urbanization, especially converting the forest area to agricultural land (i.e. rubber and mixed agriculture).     

The effect of massive binaries on stellar populations and supernova progenitors

We compare our latest single and binary stellar model results from the Cambridge stars code to several sets of observations. We examine four stellar population ratios: the number of blue to red supergiants, the number of Wolf–Rayet stars to O supergiants, the number of red supergiants to Wolf–Rayet stars and the relative number of Wolf–Rayet subtypes, WC to WN stars. These four ratios provide a quantitative measure of nuclear burning lifetimes and the importance of mass loss during various stages of the stars' lifetimes. In addition, we compare our models to the relative rate of Type Ib/c to Type II supernovae to measure the amount of mass lost over the entire lives of all stars. We find reasonable agreement between the observationally inferred values and our predicted values by mixing single and binary star populations. However, there is evidence that extra mass loss is required to improve the agreement further, to reduce the number of red supergiants and increase the number of Wolf–Rayet stars.     

Natural Radioactivity at the Sin Quyen Iron-Oxide-Copper-Gold Deposit in North Vietnam

The field radiometric and laboratory measurements were performed at the Sin Quyen copper deposit in North Vietnam. The field gamma-ray spectrometry indicated the concentration of uranium ranging from 5.5 to 87 ppm, thorium from 5.6 to 33.2 ppm, and potassium from 0.3 to 4.7%. The measured dose rates ranged from 115 to 582 nGy/h, the highest doses being at the copper ore. Concentrations in the solid samples were in the range of 20–1700 Bq/kg for uranium, 20–92.7 Bq/kg for thorium, and 7–1345 Bq/kg for potassium. The calculated doses were from 22 to 896 nGy/h; both measured and calculated dose rates are mostly related to uranium. Concentrations of radium in water samples were below 0.17 Bq/L. Uranium in water samples was significantly higher than the hydrogeological background; the maximum of 13 Bq/L was at the waste zone pool, but neither radium nor uranium were present in tap water. Radon concentration in the dwelling air was from 42 to 278 Bq/m³ for ²²²Rn and from 8 to 193 Bq/m³ for ²²⁰Rn. The estimated committed dose rates were principally related to ²²²Rn concentration and ranged from 1.1 to 8.1 mSv/y.     

Submarine canyon development in the Izu-Bonin forearc: A SeaMARC II and seismic survey of Aoga Shima Canyon

SeaMARC II sidescan (imagery and bathymetry) and seismic data reveal the morphology, sedimentary processes, and structural controls on submarine canyon development in the central Izu-Bonin forearc, south of Japan. Canyons extend up to 150 km across the forearc from the trench-slope break to the active volcanic arc. The canyons are most deeply incised (1200–1700 m) into the gentle gradients (1–2°) upslope on the outer arc high (OAH) and lose bathymetric expression on the steep (6–18°) inner trench-slope. The drainage patterns indicate that canyons are formed by both headward erosion and downcutting. Headward erosion proceeds on two scales. Initially, pervasive small-scale mass wasting creates curvilinear channels and pinnate drainage patterns. Large-scale slumping, evidenced by abundant crescent-shaped scarps along the walls and tributaries of Aoga Shima Canyon, occurs only after a channel is present, and provides a mechanism for canyon branching. The largest slump has removed >16 km³ of sediment from an 85 km² area of seafloor bounded by scarps more than 200 m high and may be in the initial stages of forming a new canyon branch. The northern branch of Aoga Shima Canyon has eroded upslope to the flanks of the arc volcanoes allowing direct tapping of this volcaniclastic sediment source. Headward erosion of the southern branch is not as advanced but the canyon may capture sediments supplied by unconfined (non-channelized) mass flows.Oligocene forearc sedimentary processes were dominated by unconfined mass flows that created sub-parallel and continuous sedimentary sequences. Pervasive channel cut-and-fill is limited to the Neogene forearc sedimentary sequences which are characterized by migrating and unconformable seismic sequences. Extensive canyon formation permitting sediment bypassing of the forearc by canyon-confined mass flows began in the early Miocene after the basin was filled to the spill points of the OAH. Structural lows in the OAH determined the initial locus of canyon formation, and outcropping basement rocks have prevented canyon incision on the lower slope. A major jog in the canyon axis, linear tributaries, and a prominent sidescan lineament all trend NW-NNW, reflecting OAH basement influence on canyon morphology. This erosional fabric may reflect joint/fracture patterns in the sedimentary strata that follow the basement trends. Once the canyons have eroded down to more erosion-resistant levels, channel downcutting slows relative to lateral erosion of the canyon walls. This accounts for the change from a narrow canyon axis in the thickly sedimented forearc basin to a wider, more rugged canyon morphology near the OAH. About 9500 km³ of sediment has been eroded from the central, 200 km long, segment of the Izu-Bonin forearc by the formation of Aoga Shima, Myojin Sho and Sumisu Jima canyons. The volume of sediment presently residing in the adjacent trench, accretionary wedge, and lower slope terrace basin accounts for <25% of that eroded from the canyons alone. This implies that a large volume (>3500 km³ per 100 km of trench, ignoring sediments input via forearc bypassing) has been subducted beneath the toe of the trench slope and the small accretionary prism. Unless this sediment has been underplated beneath the forearc, it has recycled arc material into the mantle, possibly influencing the composition of arc volcanism.     

Influence of a permeable sand layer on the mechanism of backward erosion piping using 3D pipe depth measurements

Backward erosion piping (BEP) poses a threat to the stability of water-retaining structures. This can lead to severe erosion and collapse of embankments. A novel economically appealing measure against BEP is the coarse sand barrier (CSB). The CSB is a trench filled with coarse sand that is placed below the blanket layer on the landward side of the embankment, which prevents the pipe from developing upstream when it encounters the CSB. Inclusion of a CSB creates a vertically layered sand, which is the situation that can also exist in practice but is different from traditional BEP tests with one homogeneous sand. This paper presents new observations and measurements in medium-scale laboratory tests. 3D measurements of the pipe depth and dimensions are presented and analysed. This analysis indicates how the pipe dimensions evolve during the piping process and shows the erosion mechanism for BEP in vertically layered sands. The findings demonstrate the significance of three-dimensional study of the pipe rather than two dimensions. The pipe depth, width and depth-to-width ratios at the pipe tip in critical erosion stages are measured and presented. In the presented tests, two different erosion behaviours (stepwise pipe progression until failure and straight failure) are found and analysed with respect to possible influential parameters. Higher head drops and flow rates are found in tests with straight failure at the stage before progression. A linear relationship between the hydraulic conductivity contrast (k_c) and the critical head drops (h_c) is found and observations are used to investigate deviations from the line.

     

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.