The Tuvalu Syndrome

Geoengineering research has historically been inhibited by fears that the perceived availability of a technological fix for climate change, such as the deployment of space-based deflectors, may undermine greenhouse gas abatement efforts. I develop a game theoretic model to show that the credible threat of unilateral geoengineering may instead strengthen global abatement and lead to a self-enforcing climate treaty with full participation. A ‘rogue nation’ may wish to unilaterally geoengineer if it faces extreme climate damages (as with Tuvalu), or if there are minimal local side effects from geoengineering, such as hydrological cycle disruption or stratospheric ozone depletion. However, the costly global side effects of geoengineering may make it individually rational for other countries to reduce emissions to the level where this rogue nation no longer wishes to unilaterally geoengineer. My results suggest a need to model the impacts of a “selfish geoengineer” intent only on maximizing net domestic benefits, as well as a “benevolent geoengineer” out to restore global mean temperature and minimize global side effects.     

Comparing fire-history interpretations based on area, number and estimated volume of macroscopic charcoal in lake sediments

Sedimentary charcoal particles from lakes are commonly used to investigate fire history. Fire-history reconstructions are based on measuring the surface area or counting the number of charcoal fragments in adjacent samples. Recently, the volume of charcoal particles was advised as a more accurate method for quantifying past charcoal production. Large charcoal datasets, used to synthesize global fire history, include these different types of charcoal measurements and implicitly assume that they provide comparable fire-history information. However, no study has demonstrated that this assumption is valid. Here we compare fire-frequency reconstructions based on measurements of charcoal area and number, and estimates of charcoal volume from two lake sediment records from the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Results indicate that the three proxies provide comparable fire-history interpretations when using a locally defined threshold to identify fire events.     

Identification of a sulfide derivative with a bicyclic hydrocarbon skeleton related to squalene. Part I: synthesis of a dithiane triterpenoid

In order to confirm the tentative structure of a dithiane sulfide with a bicyclic squalene hydrocarbon skeleton representing the predominant alkyl sulfide in Shell Beach samples from the Monterey Formation (Miocene, CA) and also occurring in various immature sulphur-rich sediments [Schouten, S., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., de Leeuw, J.W., 1995. A novel triterpenoid carbon skeleton in immature sulphur-rich sediments. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 59, 953–958], synthesis of a reference compound bearing two thiochromane moieties has been carried out. The product was obtained as a diastereomeric mixture appearing in the form of five peaks (partly) resolved in gas chromatography (GC). This is in sharp contrast with the geochemical compound, which appears as a single broad peak in GC. Co-elution experiments showed that none of the peaks from the synthetic mixture coelute in GC with that of the geochemical sulfide. Furthermore, the different synthetic isomers have identical mass spectra, which are clearly distinct from that of the naturally-occurring compound. The results unambiguously indicate that the natural compound is not the dithiane triterpenoid originally envisaged. Instead, we propose that the compound has a structure of a bicyclic squalene derivative bearing two “S-spiro”-type moieties as is the case for other sulfides related to regular polycyclic polyprenoids and hopanoids in Monterey sediments.     

Pb isotope variations in hydrogenetic Fe–Mn crusts from the Izu–Bonin fore-arc

Fe–Mn crusts were recovered from the western escarpment of the Bonin Ridge in the Izu–Bonin fore-arc region (dive site #824: 28.612°N, 141.803°E) at water depths of c. 2900 m using the Shinkai 6500 submersible during cruise YK 04–05. Major and trace element data and XRD mineralogy indicate that the crusts are hydrogenetic in origin. We present profiles of variations in Pb isotope composition measured in-situ by laser ablation MC-ICP-MS across two of the crusts. The isotopic variations are systematic and can be matched up between the two crusts, indicating similar growth rates. The crust Pb isotope composition rules out any local source for Pb from within the Izu–Bonin–Mariana arc system, either from hydrothermal activity or through leaching of volcanic detritus. Input of a globally well-mixed volcanic Pb component, either from aerosols or as an absorbed component on aeolian dust, has been proposed as a mechanism to explain the Pb isotope composition of Central Pacific deep water. However, the Izu–Bonin crusts are displaced to lower ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and higher ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, which requires an additional Pb source. One possibility is that as water is advected from the south, outboard of the Luzon–Ryukyu–Honshu arc system, it is progressively polluted by Pb derived by weathering and erosion of these young island arc volcanic systems. Using a constant Co-flux model, growth rates are estimated at ～ 7–13 mm/Ma, which would suggest that these crusts provide a record of changes in the composition of deep water in the Izu–Bonin fore-arc region of the western Pacific Ocean over the last 4–8 Ma. Over this interval, the main feature has been a progressive decrease in ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb (0.843 to 0.839) and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb (2.088 to 2.080) with time. The interior parts have compositions similar to those of crusts from the Izu–Bonin fore-arc, while the rims have compositions similar to crusts from the central Western Pacific.     

Parental magma of the Skaergaard intrusion: constraints from melt inclusions in primitive troctolite blocks and FG-1 dykes

Troctolite blocks with compositions akin to the Hidden Zone are exposed in a tholeiitic dyke cutting across the Skaergaard intrusion, East Greenland. Plagioclase in these blocks contains finely crystallised melt inclusions that we have homogenised to constrain the parental magma to 47.4–49.0 wt.% SiO₂, 13.4–14.9 wt.% Al₂O₃ and 10.7–14.1 wt.% FeO^T. These compositions are lower in FeO^T and higher in SiO₂ than previous estimates and have distinct La/Sm_N and Dy/Yb_N ratios that link them to the lowermost volcanic succession (Milne Land Formation) of the regional East Greenland flood basalt province. New major- and trace element compositions for the FG-1 dyke swarm, previously taken to represent Skaergaard magmas, overlap with the entire range of the regional flood basalt succession and do not form a coherent suite of Skaergaard like melts. These dykes are therefore re-interpreted as feeder dykes throughout the main phase of flood basalt volcanism.     

Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States

This study examines the seasonal variability in the heat mortality relationship across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the seasonal cycle of the health risk from anomalously high temperatures (relative to the time of season). Mortality data for the 30-year period are standardized to account for population trends and overall seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated. Results show that while the greatest overall health impact is found mid-summer in many locations due to the peak frequency of hot weather occurring at this time, the relative increase in acute mortality on oppressive air mass days is actually just as large in spring as it is in summer, and in some cases is larger. Late summer and autumn vulnerability to anomalously warm or hot days is much less significant than spring days in all areas except along the Pacific coast. Results show significant spatial variability, with the most consistent results across the more ‘traditionally’ heat vulnerable areas of the Midwestern and northeastern US, along with the Pacific Coast. Elsewhere, the seasonal cycle of the correlation between anomalously high temperatures and human health is more ambiguous.     

How well do we understand cosmological recombination?

The major theoretical limitation for extracting cosmological parameters from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky lies in the precision with which we can calculate the cosmological recombination process. Uncertainty in the details of hydrogen and helium recombination could effectively increase the errors or bias the values of the cosmological parameters derived from the Planck satellite, for example. Here, we modify the cosmological recombination code recfast by introducing one more parameter to reproduce the recent numerical results for the speed-up of the helium recombination. Together with the existing hydrogen fudge factor, we vary these two parameters to account for the remaining dominant uncertainties in cosmological recombination. By using the C osmo MC code with Planck forecast data, we find that we need to determine the parameters to better than 10 per cent for He  i and 1 per cent for H, in order to obtain negligible effects on the cosmological parameters. For helium recombination, if the existing studies have calculated the ionization fraction to the 0.1 per cent level by properly including the relevant physical processes, then we already have numerical calculations which are accurate enough for Planck . For hydrogen, setting the fudge factor to speed up low-redshift recombination by 14 per cent appears to be sufficient for Planck . However, more work still needs to be done to carry out comprehensive numerical calculations of all the relevant effects for hydrogen, as well as to check for effects which couple hydrogen and helium recombination through the radiation field.     

Resurfacing of Titan by ammonia-water cryomagma

The Cassini Titan Radar Mapper observed on Titan several large features interpreted as cryovolcanic during the October 26, 2004 pass at high northern latitudes [Lopes, R.M.C., and 43 colleagues, 2007. Icarus 186, 395-412]. To date, models of ammonia-water resurfacing have not been tied to specific events or evolutionary stages of Titan. We propose a model of cryovolcanism that involves cracking at the base of the ice shell and formation of ammonia-water pockets in the ice. As these ammonia-water pockets undergo partial freezing in the cold ice shell, the ammonia concentration in the pockets increases, decreasing the negative buoyancy of the ammonia-water mixture. If the ice shell is contaminated by silicates delivered in impacts, the liquid-solid density difference would be even less. While the liquid cannot easily become buoyant relative to the surrounding ice, these concentrated ammonia-water pockets are sufficiently close to the neutral buoyancy point that large-scale tectonic stress patterns (tides, non-synchronous rotation, satellite volume changes, solid state convection, or subsurface pressure gradients associated with topography) would enable the ammonia to erupt effusively onto the surface. Rather than suggesting steady-state volcanism over the history of the Solar System, we favor a scenario where the cryovolcanic features could have been associated with episodic (potentially late) geological activity.     

The evolution of coastal barrier systems: a case study of the Middle-Late Pleistocene Wilderness barriers,South Africa

Barrier systems contain lengthy, but complex, records of long-term environmental fluctuations. The Wilderness embayment, South Africa, contains a system of shore-parallel barriers reaching up to 200 m above modern sea level. This study reports the results of chronological, topographical (both on- and off-shore), sedimentological and micromorphological analyses within the Wilderness embayment. Sixty-one new luminescence ages from sixteen sites in unconsolidated dunes and three separate barriers are presented which, when combined with previously published luminescence ages from the area, provide a high-resolution chronological framework for the emplacement and evolution of the barrier system. The preserved barriers have been constructed within at least the last two glacial–interglacial cycles with notable phases between 241–221 ka, 159–143 ka, 130–120 ka, 92–87 ka and post 6 ka. Multiple phases of barrier construction occurred during sea-level highstands, with sediment deposition on each individual barrier occurring over at least two interglacials. Holocene evolution of the system sheds light on earlier events, with dune preservation occurring only during early regression from the Mid-Holocene highstand. Tectonic stability at Wilderness allowed glacio-eustatically formed shorelines to occupy similar positions on multiple occasions. This, in conjunction with a relatively humid climate and a well-vegetated landscape, enabled deflated sediment from beaches to form dunes which stacked upon each other to form an extensive and complex vertical accretionary sequence. Repeated erosion and recycling of pre-existing barriers as well as barrier construction on what is currently the off-shore platform during still-stands in sea-level regressional cycles, when sea levels dropped below ca ?50 m from the present day, has added to the complexity of the preserved terrestrial barrier record. The Wilderness barrier system contrasts with barriers developed elsewhere in the world where higher rates of crustal uplift have allowed preservation of a more complete and more widely spaced palaeorecord. This research also shows the utility of integrating off-shore topography as revealed by bathymetry, with terrestrial topographic data for the better understanding of the evolution of palaeo-coastlines and the preserved dune record found on present-day coastal plains. Local variation in the topography of the continental shelf at Wilderness has generated spatial and temporal complexity within the sedimentary records of individual barriers as well as having a significant influence on preservation.     

Geology,stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis-bearing Quaternary palaeolake(s) of Gorzów Wielkopolski (NW Poland,Central Europe)

The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with ¹⁴C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial.