Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel

A regional climate model is used to investigate the mechanism of interdecadal rainfall variability, specifically the drought of the 1970s and 1980s, in the Sahel region of Africa. The model is the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) Regional Spectral Model (RSM97), with a horizontal resolution of approximately equivalent to a grid spacing of 50 km, nested within the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), which in turn was forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Simulations for the July–September season of the individual years 1955 and 1986 produced wet conditions in 1955 and dry conditions in 1986 in the Sahel, as observed. Additional July–September simulations were run forced by SSTs averaged for each month over the periods 1950–1959 and the 1978–1987. These simulations yielded wet conditions in the 1950–1959 case and dry conditions in the 1978–1987 case, confirming the role of SST forcing in decadal variability in particular. To test the hypothesis that the SST influences Sahel rainfall via stabilization of the tropospheric sounding, simulations were performed in which the temperature field from the AGCM was artificially modified before it was used to force the regional model. We modified the original 1955 ECHAM4.5 temperature profiles by adding a horizontally uniform, vertically varying temperature increase, taken from the 1986–1955 tropical mean warming in either the AGCM or the NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. When compared to the 1955 simulations without the added tropospheric warming, these simulations show a drying in the Sahel similar to that in the 1986–1955 difference and to the decadal difference between the 1980s and 1950s. This suggests that the tropospheric warming may have been, at least in part, the agent by which the SST increases led to the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s.     

In-flight Performance of the Advanced Camera for Surveys CCDs

The Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS), installed in the Hubble Space telescope in March 2002, will significantly extend HST's deep, survey imaging capabilities. ACS has met, or exceeded, all of its key performance specifications. In this paper we briefly review the in-flight performance of the instrument's CCD detectors and preview early ACS science observations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the resurfacing of Ganymede by liquid-water volcanism

A long-popular model for producing Ganymede's bright terrain involves flooding of low-lying graben with liquid water, slush, or warm, soft ice. The model suffers from major problems, however, including the absence of obvious near-surface heat sources, the negative buoyancy of liquid water, and the lack of a mechanism for confining the flows to graben floors. We present new models for cryovolcanic resurfacing to overcome these difficulties. Tidal heating within an ancient Laplace-like orbital resonance (Showman and Malhotra 1997, Icarus 127, 93; Showman et al., 1997, Icarus 129, 367) provides a plausible heat source and could allow partial melting to occur as shallow as 5-10 km depth. Our favored mechanism for delivering this water to the surface invokes the fact that topography—such as a global set of graben—causes subsurface pressure gradients that can pump water or slush upward onto the floors of topographic lows (graben) despite the negative buoyancy of the liquid. These eruptions can occur only within the topographic lows; furthermore, as the low areas become full, the pressure gradients disappear and the resurfacing ceases. This provides an explanation for the observed straight dark-bright terrain boundaries: water cannot overflow the graben, so resurfacing rarely embays craters or other rough topography. Pure liquid water can be pumped to the surface from only 5-10 km depth, but macroscopic bodies of slush ascending within fractures can reach the surface from much greater depths due to the smaller negative buoyancy of slush. A challenge for these models is the short predicted gravitational relaxation timescale of topographic features at high heat flows; the resurfacing must occur before the graben topography disappears. We also evaluate alternate resurfacing mechanisms, such as pumping of liquid water to the surface by thermal expansion stresses and buoyant rise of water through a silicate-contaminated crust that is denser than liquid water, and conclude that they are unlikely to explain Ganymede's bright terrain.     

The effects of meridional motion on the determination of rotation by tracer tracking

We explore a systematic error that arises in feature-tracking measurements of time-average rotation. It stems from the flows of features across latitudes, and as these flows vary with the solar activity cycle, the error has a pattern of variation which mocks the torsional oscillation. We develop a series expansion for this error and evaluate the leading terms for the example case of cycle 21. It grows with the time lag; for a 30 day lag it is 1%, depending on how the correlations are done and interpreted. We conclude that the mock pattern cannot, however, account for the magnetic-rotation torsional oscillations pattern found in recent analyses of magnetograms from Kitt Peak and Mount Wilson. For the 1-day time lag in the Kitt Peak study, the error is negligible, and for the 30-day time lag in the Mount Wilson study, it represents at most about 30% of the signal.     

Two- and three-dimensional modelling of half-space and train-track embankment under dynamic loading

Two modelling approaches for the analyses of half-space and train-track embankment on half-space subjected to dynamic loads are presented and compared. A three-dimensional (3D) modelling approach is performed by a coupled Boundary Element–Boundary Element method (BE–BE) and a two-dimensional (2D) one by a coupled Boundary Element–Finite Element method (BE–FE). Both approaches employ time domain algorithms. The comparison between the results of the presented approaches points out whether a problem can be treated as a 2D or as a 3D case. As an application, a parametric study of the wave propagation problem in a train-track embankment with an underlying half-space is presented.     

Local music policies within a global music industry: cultural quarters in Manchester and Sheffield

This paper will explore the relationship between the local and the global in the music industry through the lens of place-based cultural policies.The first part of the paper will outline current debates around the complex interaction of the local and the global in culture in general and the popular music industry in particular. Alongside the continuous expansion of globalisation has been a reassertion of ‘place', of ‘locality'. Whilst this has been investigated to some extent at the level of local music scenes it has never been fully addressed in terms of music industry policy as part of an economic development strategy. Yet it is here that the particular values of ‘place' are asserted in the face of some ‘global' music industry with a view to developing (or at least retaining some of the benefits of) a local music industry.Whilst situating itself within these debates about the relationship of local and global musical production and consumption, the paper explores the different strategies of two northern English cities and their attempts to promote culture, and music, within each cities ‘cultural quarter': Sheffield's Cultural Industries Quarter and Manchester's Northern Quarter. The paper analyses the role and appropriateness of local authority policy intervention, the importance of ‘soft' networks within local music scenes and the different ways in which authorities in each example have tried to overcome dichotomies of art and industry, cultural and economy.     

SIMS determination of trace element partition coefficients between garnet, clinopyroxene and hydrous basaltic liquids at 2–7.5 GPa and 1080–1200°C

Trace element partition coefficients (D's) for up to 13 REE, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, Sr and Y have been determined by SIMS analysis of seven garnets, four clinopyroxenes, one orthopyroxene and one phlogopite crystallized from an undoped basanite and a lightly doped (200 ppm Nb, Ta and Hf) quartz tholeiite. Experiments were conducted at 2–7.5 GPa, achieving near-liquidus crystallization at relatively low temperatures of 1080–1200°C under strongly hydrous conditions (5–27 wt.% added water). Garnet and pyroxene D_REE show a parabolic pattern when plotted against ionic radius, and conform closely to the lattice strain model of Blundy and Wood (Blundy, J.D., Wood, B.J., 1994. Prediction of crystal–melt partition coefficients from elastic moduli. Nature 372, 452–454). Comparison, at constant pressure, between hydrous and anhydrous values of the strain-free partition coefficient (D₀) for the large cation sites of garnet and clinopyroxene reveals the relative importance of temperature and melt water content on partitioning. In the case of garnet, the effect of lower temperature, which serves to increase D₀, and higher water content, which serves to decrease D₀, counteract each other to the extent that water has little effect on garnet–melt D₀ values. In contrast, the effect of water on clinopyroxene–melt D₀ overwhelms the effect of temperature, such that D₀ is significantly lower under hydrous conditions. For both minerals, however, the lower temperature of the hydrous experiments tends to tighten the partitioning parabolas, increasing fractionation of light from heavy REE compared to anhydrous experiments.

Three sets of near-liquidus clinopyroxene–garnet two-mineral D values increase the range of published experimental determinations, but show significant differences from natural two-mineral D's determined for subsolidus mineral pairs. Similar behaviour is observed for the first experimental data for orthopyroxene–clinopyroxene two-mineral D's when compared with natural data. These differences are in large part of a consequence of the subsolidus equilibration temperatures and compositions of natural mineral pairs. Great care should therefore be taken when using natural mineral–mineral partition coefficients to interpret magmatic processes.

The new data for strongly hydrous compositions suggest that fractionation of Zr–Hf–Sm by garnet decreases with increasing depth. Thus, melts leaving a garnet-dominated residuum at depths of about 200 km or greater may preserve source Zr/Hf and Hf/Sm. This contrasts with melting at shallower depths where both garnet and clinopyroxene will cause Zr–Hf–Sm fractionation. Also, at shallower depths, clinopyroxene-dominated fractionation may produce a positive Sr spike in melts from spinel lherzolite, but for garnet lherzolite melting, no Sr spike will result. Conversely, clinopyroxene megacrysts with negative Sr spikes may crystallize from magmas without anomalous Sr contents when plotted on mantle compatibility diagrams. Because the characteristics of strongly hydrous silicate melt and solute-rich aqueous fluid converge at high pressure, the hydrous data presented here are particularly pertinent to modelling processes in subduction zones, where aqueous fluids may have an important metasomatic role.     

CHOSEN: A synthesis of hydrometeorological data from intensively monitored catchments and comparative analysis of hydrologic extremes

Comparative hydrology has been hampered by limited availability of geographically extensive, intercompatible monitoring data on comprehensive water balance stores and fluxes. These limitations have, for example, restricted comprehensive assessment of multiple dimensions of wetting and drying related to climate change and hampered understanding of why widespread changes in precipitation extremes are uncorrelated with changes in streamflow extremes. Here, we address this knowledge gap and underlying data gap by developing a new data synthesis product and using that product to detect trends in the frequencies and magnitudes of a comprehensive set of hydroclimatic and hydrologic extremes. CHOSEN (Comprehensive Hydrologic Observatory Sensor Network) is a database of streamflow, soil moisture, and other hydroclimatic and hydrologic variables from 30 study areas across the United States. An accompanying data pipeline provides a reproducible, semi-automated approach for assimilating data from multiple sources, performing quality assurance and control, gap-filling and writing to a standard format. Based on the analysis of extreme events in the CHOSEN dataset, we detected hotspots, characterized by unusually large proportions of monitored variables exhibiting trends, in the Pacific Northwest, New England, Florida and Alaska. Extreme streamflow wetting and drying trends exhibited regional coherence. Drying trends in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast were often associated with trends in soil moisture and precipitation (Pacific Northwest) and evapotranspiration-related variables (Southeast). In contrast, wetting trends in the upper Midwest and the Rocky Mountains showed few univariate associations with other hydroclimatic extremes, but their latitudes and elevations suggested the importance of changing snowmelt characteristics. On the whole, observed trends are incompatible with a ‘drying-in-dry, wetting-in-wet’ paradigm for climate-induced hydrologic changes over land. Our analysis underscores the need for more extensive, longer-term observational data for soil moisture, snow and evapotranspiration.     

The importance of choosing precipitation datasets

Precipitation data are important for hydrometeorological analyses, yet there are many ways to measure precipitation. The impact of station density analysed by the current study by comparing measurements from the Missouri Mesonet available via the Missouri Climate Center and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) measurements archived at the program website. The CoCoRaHS data utilize citizen scientists to report precipitation data providing for much denser data resolution than available through the Mesonet. Although previous research has shown the reliability of CoCoRaHS data, the results here demonstrate important differences in details of the spatial and temporal distribution of annual precipitation across the state of Missouri using the two data sets. Furthermore, differences in the warm and cold season distributions are presented, some of which may be related to interannual variability such as that associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation. The contradictory results from two widely‐used datasets display the importance in properly choosing precipitation data that have vastly differing temporal and spatial resolutions. With significantly different yearly aggregated precipitation values, the authors stress caution in selecting 1 particular rainfall dataset as conclusions drawn could be unrepresentative of the actual values. This issue may be remediated by increased spatiotemporal coverage of precipitation data.